Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

With 70.7% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         155
PAN                   59
PRD-PT              29
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    6
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.83
PRI           28.06
PRD          10.47
PVEM          6.87
PT               2.83
MC              6.12
PANAL         3.79
Morena        9.20
PH              2.29
PES            3.62
Ind             0.68
Other          0.20
Null            5.01

PRI-PVEM gaining, PRD gaining, PAN falling.

[jaichind]

As far as FPTP is concerned, it seems it is PAN gaining from PRI-PVEM in places like BC, Puebla, and Estado Mexico, and PRI-PVEM gaining from Left split like Guerrero and Oaxaca.  For MC the Jalisco surge is giving it a bunch of FPTP seats.

[jaichind]

With 73.85% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         156
PAN                   58
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    6
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.76
PRI           28.21
PRD          10.54
PVEM          6.93
PT               2.83
MC              6.13
PANAL         3.79
Morena        9.06
PH              2.28
PES            3.57
Ind             0.66
Other          0.20
Null            4.98


PRI+PVEM = 35.14
Effective vote is (1-.0283-.0228-.0066-.0020-.0498) = .8905
PRI+PVEM effective is 39.460977
39.460977+8=47.460977

So far PRI+PVEM at around 47.5% of the seats then.  But PRI+PVEM vote share is rising.  It will be close.

[jaichind]

With 75.53% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         157
PAN                   57
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    6
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.75
PRI           28.31
PRD          10.58
PVEM          6.95
PT               2.83
MC              6.11
PANAL         3.79
Morena        8.99
PH              2.27
PES            3.55
Ind             0.64
Other          0.20
Null            4.96


PRI+PVEM = 35.26
Effective vote is (1-.0283-.0227-.0064-.0020-.0496) = .891
PRI+PVEM effective is 39.573513
39.460977+8=47.573513

[jaichind]

With 77.27% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         156
PAN                   58
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    6
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

The Ind winner is in SINALOA and this candidate's victory seems to come from taking the anti-PRI vote share.

Vote share

PAN          20.78
PRI           28.42
PRD          10.58
PVEM          6.96
PT               2.83
MC              6.10
PANAL         3.79
Morena        8.91
PH              2.25
PES            3.53
Ind             0.64
Other          0.20
Null            4.95


PRI+PVEM = 35.38
Effective vote is (1-.0283-.0225-.0064-.0020-.0495) = .8913
PRI+PVEM effective is 39.694828
39.460977+8=47.694828

[ag]

Seems like PRI picks up Sonora from PAN and Guerrero from PRD, while losing Queretaro to PAN, NL to independent and Michoacan to PRD. PAN holds BCS, PRI holds Campeche. SLP and, especially, Colima are very close, but, so far, advantage PRI (both would be holds).

[jaichind]

Based on what I read online the state of the governor races are the following:

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> leaning PRI
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> 3 way tie between PRI PAN PRD
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> neck and neck between PRI and PAN
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> leaning PAN

Results seems to be

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> PRI gain
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> PRD gain
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> Ind gain
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> PAN gain
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> PRI gain

So net flat for PAN and PRD and net loss of 1 for PRI with a net gain of 1 for Independent.

[ag]

Based on what I read online the state of the governor races are the following:

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> leaning PRI
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> 3 way tie between PRI PAN PRD
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> neck and neck between PRI and PAN
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> leaning PAN

Results seems to be

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> PRI gain
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> PRD gain
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> Ind gain
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> PAN gain
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> PRI gain

So net flat for PAN and PRD and net loss of 1 for PRI with a net gain of 1 for Independent.

Colima margin is very small, and SLP not much larger, but, yes.

[jaichind]

The places where the counts are slow are BCS, GUERRERO, OAXACA, and MICHOACÁN.  This setup should mean that PRI-PVEM should gain vote share as the count continues.

[ag]

Colima margin is 0.45% and shrinking. This one will only be determined in the oficial count.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- President Enrique Pena Nieto’s PRI and allied Green and PANAL parties take about 250 of lower house’s 500 seats, daily Excelsior reports on its website.
Excelsior cites model based on preliminary results:
PAN to hold ~114 seats
PRD wins ~54 seats
Morena, party led by former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, wins ~38 seats
Movimiento Ciudadano wins ~29 seats

[jaichind]

With 79.32% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         156
PAN                   58
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    6
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

The Ind winner is in SINALOA and this candidate's victory seems to come from taking the anti-PRI vote share.

Vote share

PAN          20.82
PRI           28.55
PRD          10.60
PVEM          7.01
PT               2.83
MC              6.05
PANAL         3.78
Morena        8.81
PH              2.23
PES            3.50
Ind             0.63
Other          0.19
Null            4.93


PRI+PVEM = 35.56
Effective vote is (1-.0283-.0223-.0063-.0019-.0493) = .8919
PRI+PVEM effective is 39.869941
39.869941+8=47.869941

[ag]

If it is Sinaloa, he is, probably, governor-controlled. He controls everybody there, irrespective of the party.

[jaichind]

Looking at the numbers, it seems PRI-PVEM will fall short of majority.  For some reason most of the USA based media keeps on lumping in PANAL as a PRI ally, which I guess is true to some extent.  It is of course an very unreliable ally at best.  A majority based on PANAL suppprt is no majority at all in my view.

[jaichind]

If it is Sinaloa, he is, probably, governor-controlled. He controls everybody there, irrespective of the party.

I did notice that in SINALOA, there were several independent candidates one of which is actually ahead.  The vote share for these independent candidates seems quite substantial. What you are saying is that this is some sort of separate PAN faction controlled by the PAN governor ?   

[ag]

If it is Sinaloa, he is, probably, governor-controlled. He controls everybody there, irrespective of the party.

I did notice that in SINALOA, there were several independent candidates one of which is actually ahead.  The vote share for these independent candidates seems quite substantial. What you are saying is that this is some sort of separate PAN faction controlled by the PAN governor ?   

There may be a PAN or a PRI faction not controlled by the governor there, but most of those who win, irrespective of the party, are controlled by him, from what I know.

[jaichind]

The count seems to be slowing down.  Are the counters getting sleepy ?

With 80.09% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         157
PAN                   58
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

The Ind winner is in SINALOA and this candidate's victory seems to come from taking the anti-PRI vote share.

Vote share

PAN          20.83
PRI           28.60
PRD          10.61
PVEM          7.02
PT               2.83
MC              6.04
PANAL         3.78
Morena        8.78
PH              2.22
PES            3.48
Ind             0.63
Other          0.19
Null            4.93


PRI+PVEM = 35.62
Effective vote is (1-.0283-.0222-.0063-.0019-.0493) = .8920
PRI+PVEM effective is 39.932735
39.932735+8=47.932735

[ag]

much of what is left would be problem precincts, which would not get into PREP. Wednesday is the real count.

[jaichind]

Something is going on in OAXACA 11th district.  Still no results in from that district.  The election violence must have been extra disruptive there.

[ag]

Something is going on in OAXACA 11th district.  Still no results in from that district.  The election violence must have been extra disruptive there.

Probably, district hedquarters disrupted and election could not be held.

[jaichind]

MC being ahead in 11 seats is explained by its surge in JALISCO.  PANAL is ahead in 2 seats which has me confused.  I looked into this.  It seems that one of them is in OAXACA where the number of votes is so small that most likely more votes are counted (and I guess that could be a while from now) the PANAL lead will give way to PRD or PRI.  The other PANAL lead is in MORELOS.  There in MORELOS 5th, PANAL has a tiny lead over PRD-PT.   PRI and PVEM did not have an alliance here or else PRI-PVEM would be ahead.  Most likely PRD-PT will pull ahead but what PANAL did in this district is quite a impressive swing from 2012.

[jaichind]

If PT will be disbanded after this election, what will happen to the PT MPs which got elected on the FPTP PRD-PT tickets.  I assume they will become independents?  Will they have the option to join PRD, Morena, or MC ?

[ag]

If PT will be disbanded after this election, what will happen to the PT MPs which got elected on the FPTP PRD-PT tickets.  I assume they will become independents?  Will they have the option to join PRD, Morena, or MC ?

There is no problem switchin fractions here.

[jaichind]

With 83.22% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         157
PAN                   58
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

The Ind winner is in SINALOA and this candidate's victory seems to come from taking the anti-PRI vote share.

Vote share

PAN          20.85
PRI           28.74
PRD          10.64
PVEM          7.11
PT               2.82
MC              6.00
PANAL         3.76
Morena        8.66
PH              2.20
PES            3.43
Ind             0.61
Other          0.19
Null            4.92


PRI+PVEM = 35.85
Effective vote is (1-.0282-.0220-.0061-.0019-.0492) = .8926
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.163567
39.932735+8=48.163567

PRI+PVEM inching toward majority, most likely will fall short.

[jaichind]

With 85.28% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         159
PAN                   56
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

The Ind winner is in SINALOA and this candidate's victory seems to come from taking the anti-PRI vote share.

Vote share

PAN          20.83
PRI           28.81
PRD          10.69
PVEM          7.13
PT               2.82
MC              6.03
PANAL         3.76
Morena        8.59
PH              2.19
PES            3.39
Ind             0.60
Other          0.19
Null            4.91


PRI+PVEM = 35.94
Effective vote is (1-.0282-.0219-.0060-.0019-.0491) = .8929
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.250868
40.250868+8=48.250868