Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

So far PRD-PT, MC, and Morena are ahead in 58 FPTP seats.  This is not bad when a united PRD-PT-MC won 70 FPTP seats in 2012 and now their vote share is split 3 ways.  Both PRI-PVEM and PAN also going down in terms of vote share from 2012 for sure help.   Of course if it was not for the MC surge in JALISCO this number will look at lot worse.

[jaichind]

With 86.04% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         160
PAN                   55
PRD-PT              28
PRI                    23
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                2
Ind                     1

The Ind winner is in SINALOA and this candidate's victory seems to come from taking the anti-PRI vote share.

Vote share

PAN          20.85
PRI           28.84
PRD          10.70
PVEM          7.15
PT               2.80
MC              6.02
PANAL         3.75
Morena        8.57
PH              2.18
PES            3.38
Ind             0.60
Other          0.19
Null            4.91


PRI+PVEM = 35.99
Effective vote is (1-.0280-.0218-.0060-.0019-.0491) = .8932
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.293327
40.293327+8=48.293327

[jaichind]

Wow.  In CHIAPAS the PVEM vote share is up to 45.6% and that is on top of the PRI vote share of 23.8%.  In 2012 which was a very good year for PVEM in CHIAPAS given the PVEM candidate won the race for governor, the PVEM vote share was 24%.  it seems now the PVEM governor has been able to build up a significant clientelist organization to really turn out the vote for PVEM and turn the state into a PVEM fief.

[jaichind]

In 2012 PRI+PVEM got 241 seats.  Based on my calculations and on the results in so far, they will get 243 seats, although that may go up as the PRI+PVEM vote share goes up.

[jaichind]

With 87.98% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         158
PAN                   56
PRD-PT              29
PRI                    24
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.86
PRI           28.88
PRD          10.77
PVEM          7.15
PT               2.83
MC              6.00
PANAL         3.74
Morena        8.51
PH              2.17
PES            3.35
Ind             0.59
Other          0.19
Null            4.90


PRI+PVEM = 36.03
Effective vote is (1-.0283-.0217-.0059-.0019-.0490) = .8932
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.338110
40.338110+8=48.338110

[jaichind]

Given the vote shares of the various parties/alliances, I would have expected a greater sweep of the FPTP seats for PRI-PVEM.  But it seems there were tactical voting in many places.  PAN lost overall by a greater margin than in 2012 in terms of vote share relative to PRI-PVEM but is now leading in 3 more seats than it won in 2012 in terms of FPTP.  The main reason is that while PAN list votes, it actually gained votes in some of the states which it was strong.  In other words, there was tactical voting.   Even the JALISCO MC surge was partly a swing against PRI-PVEM but also the consolidation of anti-PRI votes behind MC.  PRI-PVEM actually got greater vote share than MC by over 3% but is behind MC 11 to 7 in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

With 89.24% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         158
PAN                   56
PRD-PT              29
PRI                    24
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.90
PRI           28.92
PRD          10.79
PVEM          7.13
PT               2.84
MC              5.98
PANAL         3.73
Morena        8.47
PH              2.16
PES            3.34
Ind             0.59
Other          0.18
Null            4.90


PRI+PVEM = 36.05
Effective vote is (1-.0284-.0216-.0059-.0018-.0490) = .8933
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.355983
40.355983+8=48.355983

[jaichind]

Look at results so far other districts in OAXACA as well as 2012 results, I tend to think that if and when the results come in for OAXACA 11th district, the PRI should end up winning it.

[jaichind]

With 97.89% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         156
PAN                   56
PRD-PT              31
PRI                    25
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.89
PRI           29.09
PRD          10.83
PVEM          7.07
PT               2.87
MC              5.99
PANAL         3.74
Morena        8.37
PH              2.14
PES            3.30
Ind             0.57
Other          0.18
Null            4.88


PRI+PVEM = 36.16
Effective vote is (1-.0287-.0214-.0057-.0018-.0488) = .8936
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.465533
40.465533+8=48.465533

[jaichind]

Looks like PREP is done

With 98.63% of the votes in FPTP leads are

PRI-PVEM         158
PAN                   56
PRD-PT              29
PRI                    25
Morena              14
MC                    11
PRD                    5
PANAL                1
Ind                     1

Vote share

PAN          20.89
PRI           29.10
PRD          10.83
PVEM          7.06
PT               2.87
MC              5.99
PANAL         3.74
Morena        8.37
PH              2.14
PES            3.30
Ind             0.57
Other          0.18
Null            4.88


PRI+PVEM = 36.16
Effective vote is (1-.0287-.0214-.0057-.0018-.0488) = .8936
PRI+PVEM effective is 40.465533
40.465533+8=48.465533

[jaichind]

Now that PES is in, will PES and PAN form an alliance for 2018 ?

[ag]

Now that PES is in, will PES and PAN form an alliance for 2018 ?

I would conjecture, PES would go for the highest bidder. If PAN has something to pay with, they will go with PAN. But do not count on them not joining PRI.

In any case, yeah, there is now a minor party on the right as well.

RIP PT.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

 What on earth is a "Humanist Party"?

[Famous Mortimer]

What on earth is a "Humanist Party"?

Farmers' party.

[jaichind]

I read talk of El Bronco running for president in 2018 although it seems he is pooh-poohing the idea.

[ag]

BTW, I may have been wrong on the Sinaloa independent. It is Manuel Clouthier Jr., the son of the sainted PANista candidate for presidency in 1988. The younger Clouthier recently had a big falling out with PAN and left the party. I am not sure what is his relationship with Malova (the governor), but he is, actually, a somebody, and not a puppet.

[ag]

My own precinct. It is in the federal district DF26, which PRI gained from PRD (it was a four-way race, PAN was second, Morena third, PRD fourth). But my precinct is reliably PANista. There are 2 polling stations in the precinct. Voters are assigned to the station alphabetically, so even though the stations were a couple of blocks away from each other the results should be similar, and they are.

Basica (mine)
PAN 127
PRI 26
Morena 24
PRD 15
PH 10
MC 6
PES 6
PVEM 4
Panal 4
PRD/PT 1 (one can choose to split the vote between parties sharing a candidate)
PT 0 (actual 0)
Spoiled 24

Contigua 1 (my wife's)
PAN 130
PRI 37
Morena 32
PH 11
PRD 10
PES 10
PVEM 5
Panal 5
MC 4
PT 2
write-ins 1
spoiled 32

The neighboring section (in the same neighborhood, couple blocks away) is also similar. It only has one box (but a few voters more):

PAN 141
PRI 46
Morena 46
PH 12
PRD 11
MC 9
PVEM 8
PES 7
Panal 5
PT 3
PRI/PVEM 1
spoiled 43

Turnout in both sections was over 50%, but, as you can see, high number of spoiled ballots. Urban, educated, richish.

[ag]

What on earth is a "Humanist Party"?

Farmers' party.

Not really. It is (was) a personal vehicle of several politicians, one of whom happens to be rural-based. But, basically, it was an attempt of a few moderately ambitious men to ally in order to gain a party line.

[ag]

Big news from Morelos. The new mayor of Cuernavaca will be... Cuauhtemoc Blanco, the famous (well, for those who care about soccer) soccer player.  He ran for PSD - the party, which has lost its federal register long ago, still survives as a state party in Morelos. They got a star candidate to run - and it worked!

[ag]

In general, this was a bright election for small parties and independents. MC (which, this time, in order to save the register, positioned itself, basically a vehicle for whoever who was popular but could not get nomination elsewhere - and it worked like a charm) did spectacular in and around Guadalajara (gaining the mayoralty by a stupendous margin, and sweeping congressional districts there). But it was not merely MC. Pedro Kumamoto, a 25-year-old, seems like an occupyish/jesuitish young man, got elected by Zapopan voters as independent to represent them in the state legislature. His campaign budget (from the electoral commission) was 18.5 thousand pesos - barely over a 1000 dollars. The guy should have a future!

[jaichind]

http://news.yahoo.com/former-vigilante-leader-runs-office-mexican-elections-145841472.html
 
Hipólito Mora, a vigilante leader Michoacán is running on the MC ticket for Congress.  I actually saw a video about this guy a few months ago on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ6_i0cXQ8E

This guy, who ran in the Michoacán 12th district, actually got 9.08% of the vote, doing his part to get MC above 3%.

[ag]

http://news.yahoo.com/former-vigilante-leader-runs-office-mexican-elections-145841472.html
 
Hipólito Mora, a vigilante leader Michoacán is running on the MC ticket for Congress.  I actually saw a video about this guy a few months ago on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ6_i0cXQ8E

This guy, who ran in the Michoacán 12th district, actually got 9.08% of the vote, doing his part to get MC above 3%.

Well, what can I say? Dante Delgado is a very smart guy.

[ag]

While I am at it, results in DF elections in my precinct as well. This time, it seem, it was all straight partyline voting. Note that the city council district was won by PAN and the delegacion was won by PRD (so, given that the congressional seat was won by PRI, I have all three parties representing me - miracles of different district boundaries).

Basica (mine)
Party/ votes for city council/votes for delegado (borough president)
PAN      129 123
PRI        30    28
Morena  28    22
PRD       13    16
PH          8     10
MC          6      7
PVEM      6      6
PES         7      5
Panal        2     2
PT           0      1
PRD/PT   1       1
spoiled    26   26


Contigua (my wife's)
PAN        130   127
PRI           37      41
Morena      36      34
PRD           9         12
PES           9         11
PH            11         8
Panal        6          8
MC            5          6
PVEM         4         4
PT            1          0
spoiled      30        27

 
 

[jaichind]

Now that PES is in, will PES and PAN form an alliance for 2018 ?

I would conjecture, PES would go for the highest bidder. If PAN has something to pay with, they will go with PAN. But do not count on them not joining PRI.

In any case, yeah, there is now a minor party on the right as well.

RIP PT.

Actually, is PT really out?  Is the 3% rule for 3% of the total vote or 3% of the non-null vote?  Because the PT vote share of 2.87%, for now, once we normalize against the non-null vote, is actually above 3%.

[jaichind]

Big news from Morelos. The new mayor of Cuernavaca will be... Cuauhtemoc Blanco, the famous (well, for those who care about soccer) soccer player.  He ran for PSD - the party, which has lost its federal register long ago, still survives as a state party in Morelos. They got a star candidate to run - and it worked!

How does a party retain register as a state party?  Is it about winning more than 3% in the governor race or in the state Chamber of Deputies ?