Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Special election for Aguascalientes 1st district results in a victory of PAN-PANAL over PRI-PVEM 43.4% to 35.2%.  PT won 12.7% of the vote and over 13,000 votes.  Back in June PT won only 3000 votes in Aguascalientes 1st district.  Since PT needed around 3000 net votes to stay above 3% to maintain itself as a political party, PT clearly has cleared that threshold and will continue as a national party.  PT making it past the 3% threshold means that as pointed out in

Taking advantage of info I got on-line that PVEM FPTP is really 29.  The plugging that in we get
              
              FPTP   PR     Total
PAN        55     54        109
PRI        156    46        202
PRD         28     28          56
PVEM       29     18          47
PT             6       0            6    -> disbanded
MC          10      16         26
PANAL       1       9          10
MORENA  14     21         35
PES           0       8           8
Ind           1                    1

PRI-PVEM at 249
 
On the flip side, if somehow PT makes it it will be

              FPTP   PR     Total
PAN        55     53        108
PRI        156    41        197
PRD         26     28          56
PVEM       29     18          47
PT             6       7          13  
MC          10      15         25
PANAL       1       9          10
MORENA  14     21         35
PES           0       8           8
Ind           1                    1

PRI-PVEM at 244.  Still a gain from 2012.

PRI-PVEM will now be at 244 instead of 249.

What a near death experience for PT.  

The election result for Aguascalientes 1st district  in terms of total votes seems to match that of June 2015 if one adds the PRI and PVEM votes in June 2015 and gives it to PRI-PVEM, adds PAN PANAL and PES votes in June 2015 and gives it to PAN-PANAL, and add PRD PT MORENA and MC June 2015 votes and gives it to PT.  So it seems all center-left votes in this district united to vote for PT to keep it from being dissolved. 

[ag]

PRD did not run this time at all (they, clearly, decided to yield this one to PT). But Morena did: they got 1,384 votes (about 1.3% of the total).

PES got 907 votes on its own this time.

[ag]

Actually, there will be court cases. There are two things to be decided, which may be decided separately: whether PT preserves the register (they survived so far due to a court order, so this works in their favor) and whether they get their 6 seats.

Of course, PAN has just gained another one.

[ag]

PT has oficially been reinstated as a party and received its public funding. However, it is not getting the PR deputies - the electoral tribunal has ruled that these had been definitively allocated. Some INE members expressed their disagreement with the ruling, but declared that they have to follow it. So, PRI retains its near-plurality, and the only change is that PAN gaines Ags. 1.

Still, PT has survived to see another day at the ballot box.