Mexico June 7th 2015 elections
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Author Topic: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections  (Read 55538 times)
ag
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« Reply #75 on: March 25, 2015, 02:36:04 PM »

Seems like calderonistas have been able to nominate their (or, at least, non-maderista) candidates for governor in three crucial states where PAN does have a chance (Queretaro, San Luis Potosi and Michoaca - in that last one, Calderon´s native state, the candidate is, once again, Calderon´s sister).
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ag
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« Reply #76 on: March 26, 2015, 06:32:30 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 06:35:34 PM by ag »

Today's Reforma poll on the attitude to the government. They poll both "citizens" and "leaders". A huge gap is opening between the two: whereas the "citizens" are ambivalent, the leaders are increasingly upset with the Peña regime. Figures in brackets refer to April 2013. Keep in mind that the minimal passing grade in Mexican schools is 6.

1. On the scale of 0 to 10 how would you grade the work of Enrique Peña Nieto as president

Citizens 5.0 (6.3 in April 2013)
Leaders 3.5 (7.1 in April 2013)

2. Do you approve or disapprove of how Enrique Peña Nieto is doing his work as president

Citizens: Approve 39% (50% in April 2013), disapprove 57% (30% in April 2013)
Leaders: Approve 17% (78% in April 2013), disapprove 82% (20% in April 2013)

3. What is the main problem in country today

Citizens:
Crime 48% (48% in April 2013)
Economy 26% (26% in April 2013)
Corruption 8% (3% in april 2013)

Leaders:
Corruption 63% (32% in April 2013)
Economy 17% (29% in April 2013)
Crime 13% (26% in April 2013).

It seems that the people in the know are very much aware of the increasing government corruption - and are rabid about it. But the government has been able to insulated itself from the popular rage. The average guy in the street does know that "they steal", but does not think anything out of the ordinary is going on. But all those of us who "know people" realize that things are quite different these days.

Note: "citizens" poll is a standard 1200 person sample. The "leaders" poll is obtained by sending questions to 4,666 persons in academia, politics and the private sector. This time 1,088 responded (including, full disclosure, your humble servant).
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jaichind
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« Reply #77 on: March 30, 2015, 07:37:22 PM »

Latest Reforma poll

PRI         32%
PAN        22%
PRD        14%
MORENA   8%
PVEM        7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #78 on: March 31, 2015, 05:29:16 AM »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-31/green-is-good-as-mexican-ruling-party-seeks-allies-to-keep-power

Bloomberg article about the key role of PVEM will play in keeping the PRI majority in the upcoming election.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #79 on: April 05, 2015, 03:19:47 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2015, 03:21:37 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »



I found this insightful infographic on the Reforma blog. Although I was well-aware of Mexico's malaise when I visited my family in the summer, these figures are very dire. I don't think the poll's depiction of electoral preferences has any predicative power in this climate of distrust and discontentment. Many PRI supporters are currently backing the party due to inertia. This could change very rapidly as election day approaches.
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: April 11, 2015, 06:48:10 AM »

BGC-Excelsior poll.  Not sure how good of a pollster BGC-Excelsior is.

http://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&idioma=1&id=3685341&Itemid=1

PRI               36
PAN              22
PRD              15
PVEM             8
Morena          7
MC                3
PANAL           3
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Simfan34
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« Reply #81 on: April 11, 2015, 03:39:51 PM »

So the Church is the most trusted institution in Mexico?
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Zanas
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« Reply #82 on: April 11, 2015, 04:06:56 PM »

So the Church is the most trusted institution in Mexico?
In other words, "in God we trust".
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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: April 19, 2015, 09:12:03 AM »

A poll in DF

http://www.kioscomayor.com/vernoticias.php?artid=65412&relacion=&tipo=principal1&cat=51



It seems to be

PRD-PT-PANAL     32%
PAN                     17%
PRI-PVEM             21%
Morena                18%

Election night will be interesting how things break down in DF.
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jaichind
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« Reply #84 on: April 19, 2015, 09:41:57 AM »

Mitofsky poll

http://www.revistapuntodevista.com.mx/2015/04/18/pri-encabeza-preferencias-electorales-con-33-mitofsky/62606/



Seems to be

PRI-PVEM                             39.8%
PAN                                      23.5%
PRD-PT                                 17.8%
Morena                                 11.2%

PANAL with 3.5% seems to be allied with different major parties in different places and races.   MC at 2.5% which puts them in danger of losing party status.
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jaichind
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« Reply #85 on: April 23, 2015, 06:56:14 PM »



Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.   
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #86 on: April 23, 2015, 08:00:45 PM »

I just cannot get over the fact that Obrador's political party is called "Morena".  That is hilarious.
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ag
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« Reply #87 on: April 23, 2015, 09:06:04 PM »



Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.
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jaichind
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« Reply #88 on: April 23, 2015, 09:20:56 PM »



Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.


Yeah.  But Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas is also gone from the PRD.  You would figure that some of the Left vote would leave PRD to Morena if anything just out of revenge.  But at least in this poll the PRD vote share is holding firm.
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backtored
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« Reply #89 on: April 23, 2015, 09:29:46 PM »



Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.


To be fair, AMLO did beat Calderón in Michoacan in 2006. Which would make a Panista win so, so very sweet for Señora Calderon.
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backtored
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« Reply #90 on: April 23, 2015, 09:45:09 PM »

Why did the Greens ally themselves with the PRI? The PRI seems much too technocratic for them, and their social conservatism puts them closer to the PAN, at least if it is true that the Mexican Greens have an uncharacteristic streak of social conservatism.
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jaichind
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« Reply #91 on: April 23, 2015, 09:48:51 PM »

Why did the Greens ally themselves with the PRI? The PRI seems much too technocratic for them, and their social conservatism puts them closer to the PAN, at least if it is true that the Mexican Greens have an uncharacteristic streak of social conservatism.

I think after 2000.  In 2000 PVEM was with PAN but somehow they had a falling out with PAN after 2002 and after that they have been with PRI for the 2003 election and onward. 
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ag
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« Reply #92 on: April 24, 2015, 12:25:59 AM »



Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.


Yeah.  But Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas is also gone from the PRD.  You would figure that some of the Left vote would leave PRD to Morena if anything just out of revenge.  But at least in this poll the PRD vote share is holding firm.

It depends on who controls the local party organization. Probably, cardenistas are still in control locally.
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ag
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« Reply #93 on: April 24, 2015, 12:29:42 AM »



Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.


To be fair, AMLO did beat Calderón in Michoacan in 2006. Which would make a Panista win so, so very sweet for Señora Calderon.

Cardenas beat Fox there in 2000 - which is much more remarkable, as it was the only state he won.

Cocoa Calderon lost there to PRI in 2012 already. Calderons are a Michoacan family, of course, but Michoacan is no panista stronghold.
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ag
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« Reply #94 on: April 24, 2015, 12:37:18 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2015, 12:53:26 AM by ag »

Why did the Greens ally themselves with the PRI? The PRI seems much too technocratic for them, and their social conservatism puts them closer to the PAN, at least if it is true that the Mexican Greens have an uncharacteristic streak of social conservatism.

PVEM has no ideology whatsoever. They are in it purely for business purposes. Keeping hold of a political party register is very profitable in Mexico, and the profit is somewhat proportional to the vote tally. So, they do whatever they calculate should be done to maximize the vote, with no other objective in mind. To the extent they have any policies they really care about, these are, likewise, pure business. For instance, they care about promoting certain kinds of snake oil - because some of their leaders are related to the main snake oil producer. If you pay them enough for promoting medicinal qualities of koala piss, they will promote those medicinal qualities - by drinking it on the floor of the Congress, if necessary. Or you can pay them for promoting koala extermination - they will happily help pass a law ordering Mexican government to contact its Australian counterpart to make sure the last koala is exterminated.

In any case, trying to read any ideological concerns into their coalition formation is hilariously inappropriate. The only green thing about that party is its logo - and adopting it is the only ideological position the party ever took.
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jaichind
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« Reply #95 on: April 27, 2015, 08:40:41 PM »

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3
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backtored
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« Reply #96 on: April 29, 2015, 08:11:10 PM »

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.
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jaichind
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« Reply #97 on: April 29, 2015, 08:53:47 PM »

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.

I think the reason PRI is ahead despite all this is the same reason why LDP is always ahead in Japan.  They are supported "because there is no one else."  That is literally the largest reason why people in Japan say they vote LDP, "because there is no one else." 
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ag
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« Reply #98 on: April 29, 2015, 10:00:45 PM »

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.

They haven't governed in Nuevo Leon since 2003. Both the incumbent and his predecessor are priista.

PAN current leadership is pathetic, small-time but obviously corrupt, and seems to be on PRI pay.
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jaichind
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« Reply #99 on: April 30, 2015, 11:10:51 AM »
« Edited: May 02, 2015, 04:25:49 PM by jaichind »

I have a question about the 8% rule: Will this rule allow for overhang seats like in Germany.  It is relevant this year in my view.  Say in a, not the most likely but distinctly possible situation where PAN support drops some more (especially in areas of PAN strength) while PRD-PT and Morena (splitting the PRD-PT vote in areas of traditional PRD strength) support goes up to where we get something like PRI-PVEM 40%, PAN 22%, PRD-PT 15%, Morena 13% MC 4% PANAL 3% in the vote.  I can see in this case the power of FPTP would potentially propel PRI-PVEM to win something like 250-260 out of the 300 FPTP seats due to the split of the anti-PRI-PVEM vote and lack of tactical voting.  But the 8% rule would dictate that PRI-PVEM would be restricted to 48% of the 500 seats or 240 seats which is less than the 260 seats that PRI-PVEM won already in the constituency seats.  What will happen then ?  Will they just

1) Hand all 200 PR seats to the various non-PRI-PVEM parties and call it day with PEI-PVEM having a 260 seat out of 500 seats majority.
or
2) Create more PR seats on the fly and hand them out so the PRI-PVEM will still only have 48% of the seats which mean would size of the legislature would be greater than 500.

I am not saying this is likely but for sure possible especially when in 2015 PRI-PVEM is not that strong in term of support but the anti-PRI-PVEM votes are split into 3 large blocs with the biggest one (PAN) having a very large gap between itself and PRI-PVEM.

But just to show you what I am talking about.  In 2012 it was

                   vote share    Constituency seats
PRI-PVEM      38.4%              176
PAN              27.2%                52
PRD-PT-MC    28.4%               72

If the gap between PRI-PVEM and the runner up grows from around 11% in 2012 to something like 18% in 2015 like in my scenario I can see PAN PRD and Morena only winning strongholds and nothing else in terms of  constituency seats.
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