Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[politicus]

Plus, I get from your posts that you are dogmatically using the terminology whereas it's not even commonly in use in Mexico. So, I won't convince you to stop, but it's not an honest practice, not to mention not the most clarifying for foreigners who do not know Mexican politics very well.

If you haven't noticed by now: ag is - among other things - a major league troll and you shouldn't expect "honest practice" or fairness from him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ag can be spectacularly Russian sometimes

[ag]

Plus, I get from your posts that you are dogmatically using the terminology whereas it's not even commonly in use in Mexico. So, I won't convince you to stop, but it's not an honest practice, not to mention not the most clarifying for foreigners who do not know Mexican politics very well.

If you haven't noticed by now: ag is - among other things - a major league troll and you shouldn't expect "honest practice" or fairness from him.

I think, in this particular case I have been quite fair. Did I say a good word about any other party involved?

[ag]

Ag can be spectacularly Russian sometimes

More Jewish, perhaps. At least as far as the sense of humor is concerned

Though, of course, cannot (and would not) deny the country of my birth

[ag]

On a more serious note, it is precisely using the clear terminology that clarifies things. Obfuscation involved in denying the obvious similarity between the Latin American left and European ultra-right is what confuses things. The fact that Berlusconi and Chavez are ideological twins is obvious to all who care to pay attention. This sort of an observation would be viewed as a triviality around the lunch table at my office - well, yeah, and France is in Europe, what else is new? I am just trying to be of help to Europeans here.  Perhaps that is what is called trolling (I am certain, our Scandinavian friends would be experts on that )

[jaichind]

http://www.sdpnoticias.com/columnas/2015/01/20/encuesta-parametria-empate-pri-pan-empate-prd-morena-verde-y-gana-el-no-molesten

President Enrique Pena Nieto’s PRI party has 23% of voter preference less than five months before June midterm elections vs. 20% support for PAN, according to household poll by Parametria, El Financiero reports.

25% did not respond to question of party preference in Parametria poll
PRD has 9% support
Morena and Green Party have 7% each
Five other parties have 2% or less
Excluding those who did not express party preference, PRI would have 31% support followed by 27% for PAN and 12% for PRD: Financiero
Parametria poll shows Pena Nieto has 42% approval rating vs. 41% in late 2014 and 44% about a yr ago: Financiero
53% disapprove of Pena Nieto in poll this month, unchanged from late last yr and in early 2014

If the Greens continue with their alliance with PRI this poll does seem to put PRI-PVEM in a strong position to do well, which is surprising.  I guess despite the bad narrative coming out of the PRI government, the alternative to PRI-PVEM does not seem that great either.  I guess if anyone is going to challenge PRI-PVEM it will be PAN with the Left split between PRD and AMLO party (Morena)

[jaichind]

Anyone know the status of PANAL now that Gordillo has been charged with corruption.  Are they going to even run in 2015 ?  And if so will they ally with any party?  I guess PRI would be the natural choice but the fact that Nieto arrested Gordillo does put a spoiler on things. 

[ag]

Anyone know the status of PANAL now that Gordillo has been charged with corruption.  Are they going to even run in 2015 ?  And if so will they ally with any party?  I guess PRI would be the natural choice but the fact that Nieto arrested Gordillo does put a spoiler on things. 

Yes, of course, they are running. This is a LINE ON THE BALLOT. And, BTW, lots of money from the state.

They will shop around. For instance, in DF they seem to have made an alliance with PRD. Negotiations with PRI do not seem to have worked out.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ag, "the lunch table around your office" is filled with highly educated, relatively affluent Mexican nationals who want to believe that any left-wing politician who doesn't adhere to the dictates of serious people is an "potential dictator" or "fascist" . I'm pretty aware of this perspective because it's one shared by my mother. Nevertheless, it has always struck me as a bit delusional.

That's not to say that I support the PRD or Obrador or "Bolivarianism" but don't act like your insights have merit because they're shared by accountants, economists and HR reps in DF or Monterrey.

For what it's worth, I tend to agree that the history of the PRI shares many similarities with fascism in Europe and that these similarities shouldn't be overlooked. It's no coincidence that a former PRI stooge disrespected the foundations of Mexican democracy after he lost an election. Obrador's megalomaniacal paranoia is partially a reflection of the worst qualities of the PRI.

[ag]

Not even, for the most part, Mexicans Other Latin Americans are quite well represented

I am simply making the point, which I am sure would be appreciated by European posters here, that much of Latin American (and, definitely, Mexican) left is archaic, by European standars - Mussolinesque archaic that is. It is fundamentally anti-democratic, corporativist, and VERY nationalist.  It helps to know that, by supporting the ostensible left, you are supporting Latin American Berlusconis

That does not mean that every leftist politician is a potential dictator - it takes a certain kind. For instance, I would never consider Cuauhtemoc Cardenas a "potential dictator" - he, most certainly, is not and has never been. Even his father, though he was, arguably, a bona fide dictator, was of a rather different cloth. And, of course, the plural ("tribal") internal organization of PRD avoided the worst: it never had a proper leader cult and it always retained the decidedly unfascist need for compromises within party. Hence, whatever the ideological inclinations of most party leaders, it has been a fundamentally democratic organization.

MORENA, of course, is a very different beast. It is a proper leader-based party, fully controlled by an individual with clear messianic pretentions. AMLO is not, really, particularly leftist - not even in the Mexican political spectrum.  He is, most definitely, no further left (whatever that means) than Cuauhtemoc Cardenas. He, as you say, is an old PRI goon. But, unquestionably, he is a potential fascist dictator - that is what he wants, that is what he works for. This is the case of personality and political ideology fitting together well.

[jaichind]

Looks like  Ebrard is going to run in this year's congressional election.  Perhaps this is part of his bid to become the leader of the PRD.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2015/02/02/former-mexico-city-mayor-to-run-for-seat-in-congress/

Also due to falling oil prices it seems the controversial Mexico City – Querétaro  high-speed rail project has been  “indefinitely postponed”.  This cannot help the PRI in Querétaro.

[ag]

Looks like  Ebrard is going to run in this year's congressional election.  Perhaps this is part of his bid to become the leader of the PRD.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2015/02/02/former-mexico-city-mayor-to-run-for-seat-in-congress/

Also due to falling oil prices it seems the controversial Mexico City – Querétaro  high-speed rail project has been  “indefinitely postponed”.  This cannot help the PRI in Querétaro.

There is also an across the board budget cut announced. Not much in trrms of polling though, yet.

[Velasco]

It helps to know that, by supporting the ostensible left, you are supporting Latin American Berlusconis

I think the more obvious equivalent to Berlusconi in Latin America is Carlos Menem. Not only because both are populist right-wingers, it's because of certain frivolity associated to them: the politics of spectacle (Argentinians say "la farandulización de la política")

[ag]

It helps to know that, by supporting the ostensible left, you are supporting Latin American Berlusconis

I think the more obvious equivalent to Berlusconi in Latin America is Carlos Menem. Not only because both are populist right-wingers, it's because of certain frivolity associated to them: the politics of spectacle (Argentinians say "la farandulización de la política")

Well, yeah, peronism is the same sort of a phenomenon in any case. Chavez, though, also loved the spectactle, didn´t he?

[Velasco]

Chávez was a good showman, as well certain peronist caudillos. Berlusconi and Menem have something more in common: womanising and a certain taste for ostentation, for example.

[ag]

Chávez was a good showman, as well certain peronist caudillos. Berlusconi and Menem have something more in common: womanising and a certain taste for ostentation, for example.

Well, womanizing is hardly a political characteristic.

National Womanizer Party, though, would sound nice

[Velasco]

Believe it or not, womanising was a part of the Berlusconi's appeal. When the political message is focused on the 'captivating' personality of the leader (Berlusconi and Menem are text book examples, there are lots of references on the 'politics of spectacle' and the 'farandulización' out there), I think it's hard to distinguish between 'personal' and 'political' characteristics. On the other hand, I think bold generalisations aren't usually good. It'd be better if we focus on the June elections

[ag]

Believe it or not, womanising was a part of the Berlusconi's appeal. When the political message is focused on the 'captivating' personality of the leader (Berlusconi and Menem are text book examples, there are lots of references on the 'politics of spectacle' and the 'farandulización' out there), I think it's hard to distinguish between 'personal' and 'political' characteristics. On the other hand, I think bold generalisations aren't usually good. It'd be better if we focus on the June elections

No doubt it was. But, that is just exploiting personality of the leader. If, instead o keeping her under wraps, Hitler made a point of having his sex with Eva B. broadcast in cinemas, that would, certainly, provide an interesting flavor to Nazi rule, but would hardly change the substance.

Then, going back to July elections, there is hardly more substance to our current president than his pretty wife and her corruptly acquired house

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

For some reason I didn't realize until reading ag's post up above that Cuauhtemoc Cardenas was Lazaro Cardenas's son.

[ag]

For some reason I didn't realize until reading ag's post up above that Cuauhtemoc Cardenas was Lazaro Cardenas's son.

History is still alive

[jaichind]

Latest Parametria-El Financiero poll excluding voters who won’t vote/don’t know/didn’t respond

PRI      32%
PAN     26%
PRD     13%
PVEM   11%
Morena  9%

Note that PRI and PVEM will have an alliance.  PVEM seems to be the Komeito Party of Mexican politics.   It seems to have a small but significant and transferable vote bloc which is very useful as an ally for a major party.  If this poll is indicative of levels of support it seems PRI-PVEM will sweep to victory. 

In other news, PRD seems to have dropped Ebrard from its PR party list.   I have no idea why and if this is the level of pettiness of intra-party infighting,  then the PRD is looking at a very bad election night.  Humiliating its most popular political figure is not going to expand the vote based of a party.   

[ag]

Why dropping Ebrard? Because he is not a Chucho (pun not intended) and does not have a particularly strong faction of his own, and, in any case, nobody wants him as a potential presidential contender. Additionally, his successor as mayor (Mancera) detests Ebrard (I guess, for the crime of anointing Mancera as his own successor) - and, though not a party member himself, he has weight and active city machine on his side.

Both Morena and MC suggested they may give Ebrard a slot on one of their lists. Going with Morena would mean, once again, becoming an AMLO minion - a humiliating outcome by itself. MC runs the risk of not getting the 3% necessary to get in (they've raised the threshold). And he needs to get in, as he may be prosecuted for the alleged crimes having to do with metro construction while he was mayor (a seat in congress comes with immunity attached). Another option is for him to run in a district. But, once again, he may have hard time being nominated by PRD - especially in DF. That would leave the possibility of a run as an independent (this is now allowed) - but independents rarely win.

[jaichind]

Universal poll

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion-mexico/2015/encuesta-pri-cae-y-morena-avanza-a-4-meses-de-las-elecciones-1079356.html

seem to have

PRI        30
PAN       26
PRD       13
PVEM     11
Morena    9

However, all three major parties generate more negative than positive opinions -- 43% in
the case of the PRI, 33% for the PRD and 28% for the PAN.

Still with PRI-PVEM with an alliance, as long as they can transfer their support to each other PRI-PVEM still seem to have a significant advantage.

[jaichind]

Former Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said Friday he is splitting with the country's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, citing what he described as its increasing closeness to President Enrique Pena Nieto and the governing PRI.  It seems he will join MC and run in this June's elections for Congress.

 

[ag]

Former Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said Friday he is splitting with the country's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, citing what he described as its increasing closeness to President Enrique Pena Nieto and the governing PRI.  It seems he will join MC and run in this June's elections for Congress.

 

Yep, Ebrard gets the first slot on one of the MC regional PR lists. More importantly, it is not just he, who is leaving: seems like his entire "corriente" (Movimiento Progresista) is gone from the PRD and has signed a formal agreement with MC. Smart move on the MC part: this is their only chance to get to the newly raised 3% threshold. Not that Ebrard, by any means, guarantees it, but, at least, he is a face of note. They also got the former PAN leader Espino - but that is more of a loose cannon.

Also, the Bejarano "corriente" (Izquierda Democratica Nacional) is extremely humiliated and unhappy: they were given very few slots to run in DF. If  previously they had, at least, 6 of the 16 delegaciones, they are now given candidacies in 3, and one of those is Benito Juarez, where PAN always wins.

To a large extent, both splits are the consequence of the decisions by Mexico City mayor Mancera, who, even though not even a member of the party, has insisted on getting rid of his opponents.  But, of course, it is the "chuchos", who control the party, who operationalized it.

In any case, for all practical purposes, the PRD is now just the chuchos (Nueva Izquierda) and manceristas (Vanguardia Progresista). They do not have anybody, who can be claimed to be a popular politician: certainly, that would not be Mancera.