Mexico June 7th 2015 elections
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  Mexico June 7th 2015 elections
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Zanas
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« Reply #50 on: March 05, 2015, 09:42:44 AM »

So what exactly is this MC ? The acronym hasn't once been developed in either page of this thread, it seems.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #51 on: March 05, 2015, 09:46:31 AM »

So what exactly is this MC ? The acronym hasn't once been developed in either page of this thread, it seems.

Citizen's Movement. One of the tiny little satellite parties that floats around the PRD.
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ag
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« Reply #52 on: March 05, 2015, 12:43:43 PM »

So what exactly is this MC ? The acronym hasn't once been developed in either page of this thread, it seems.

Citizen's Movement. One of the tiny little satellite parties that floats around the PRD.

Used to be called Democratic Convergence. Stands for having a vaguely leftist line on the ballot, and is at grave risk of losing it.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #53 on: March 05, 2015, 12:56:15 PM »

I look forward to seeing DF's hilarious election results.
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ag
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« Reply #54 on: March 05, 2015, 01:23:38 PM »

I look forward to seeing DF's hilarious election results.

PAN is collapsing in DF as well. So results might be, indeed, quite strange. Winning a Delegacion with 25% of the vote seems quite possible at this point. Of course, camps might cristallize by the election day. But if they do not, it will all be very unpredictable.
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: March 15, 2015, 05:17:53 PM »

A bit late

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2377375&CategoryId=14091

Consulta Mitofsky poll for Lower House elections has

PRI        31
PAN       26
PRD       16
MORENA  9
PVEM       8

Which seems to match all other polls so far.  I am surprised how much PRD and MOREAN support has held up given the sectarian battles between the two last few months.
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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: March 19, 2015, 07:23:44 PM »

GEA-ISA poll is is again consistent with other polls

PRI        33
PAN       28
PRD       14
Morena    9
PVEM       7

If PRI and PVEM can transfer their support to each other in their alliance tickets, then this midterm election will be the first time since 1991 that a Mexican Midterm does not end up as a disaster for the ruling party like 1997 2003 and 2009.

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ag
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« Reply #57 on: March 19, 2015, 07:51:48 PM »

A bit more than a week ago tehre was a Nuevo Leon governor poll by Parametria-El Financiero. The numbers a curious

Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-PD) 40% 37%+2%+1%+0% - the last of the parties is a local outfit
Jaimer Eliodoro Rodriguez (Independent) 27%
Felipe de Jesus Cantu (PAN) 22%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 5%
PRD 2%
PH 2%
PT 1%
Morena 1%
everybody else negligible
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jaichind
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« Reply #58 on: March 20, 2015, 07:08:13 AM »

A bit more than a week ago tehre was a Nuevo Leon governor poll by Parametria-El Financiero. The numbers a curious

Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-PD) 40% 37%+2%+1%+0% - the last of the parties is a local outfit
Jaimer Eliodoro Rodriguez (Independent) 27%
Felipe de Jesus Cantu (PAN) 22%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 5%
PRD 2%
PH 2%
PT 1%
Morena 1%
everybody else negligible

Interesting, it seems that now the election systems allows for independents we actually have a live case where it is making a difference.  I assume this independent is center-left as he seems to be taking vote share from parties like PRD PT and Morena.  If so I think a rational  PRD PT and Morena is to endorse this center-left independent to try to make fight of it with PRI.   
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ag
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« Reply #59 on: March 20, 2015, 10:02:29 AM »

A bit more than a week ago tehre was a Nuevo Leon governor poll by Parametria-El Financiero. The numbers a curious

Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-PD) 40% 37%+2%+1%+0% - the last of the parties is a local outfit
Jaimer Eliodoro Rodriguez (Independent) 27%
Felipe de Jesus Cantu (PAN) 22%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 5%
PRD 2%
PH 2%
PT 1%
Morena 1%
everybody else negligible

Interesting, it seems that now the election systems allows for independents we actually have a live case where it is making a difference.  I assume this independent is center-left as he seems to be taking vote share from parties like PRD PT and Morena.  If so I think a rational  PRD PT and Morena is to endorse this center-left independent to try to make fight of it with PRI.   

He is a former priista. NL has no left, really.
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jaichind
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« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2015, 06:58:33 PM »

He is a former priista. NL has no left, really.

I see.  But did not ALMO get 22% of the vote in NL in 2012.  That seems to indicate that here is a small but still significant left vote.  PRD PT MC and Morena did not seem to get much of that in this poll which leads me to suspect that the PRI rebel might have picked up most of that support.  Anyway it seems before independents are allowed to run, such a PRI rebel might run on the PRD ticket.  Now he can just run as an independent.  This change might hurt the PRD in PRI dominated states, although I see NL as more of a PAN state.   
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ag
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« Reply #61 on: March 20, 2015, 09:00:37 PM »

Morena, surprisingly, is not  making as much of a splash as one would expect. But that is only one surprise. Things are not good.

The current government is incredibly corrupt. The general view among people in the know is that there has been nothing in recent history remotely like this. Most definitely, not during the previous three administrations. In many respects we are back to the 1970s. Whereas in recent past a public official could -and did - steal for this own benefit, this was, for the most part, incidental, at least in the federal government. If the public policy was good for him personally that was, obviously, welcome, but that was not the main point of the public policy. That has changed. Now it is the public policy that is incidental - stealing is the main objective, and if some reasonable public policy emerges as a by-product, so be it.

One would think the opposition would have a field day - but it does not. There is a strong feeling the government either bought up or intimidated most of its opponents. The PAN and PRD leaderships are pathetic, of course, but not even the opposition politicians currently on the back bench are doing much of the job. For that matter, even Lopez Obrador is a lot less visible these days - either tired, or otherwise marginalized. The most vocal protest comes from non-parliamentary groups, such as the radical unions (mostly teachers'). But they have no understanding of the real scandals, so they cannot exploit them. Nor do they have any interest in participating in the formal political system - rather, they are attempting to wreck it. Elections in Michoacan and, especially, in Guerrero are going to be conducted against a concentrated attempt to sabotage them.

To sum up, this is a very depressing environment. Hopefully, elections will still be reasonably democratic. But the overall situation is nasty, and getting increasingly worse.
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jaichind
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« Reply #62 on: March 21, 2015, 09:01:22 AM »

Yeah.  The level of trust in institutions like the military are reaching very low levels.  EPN I think might be losing control of PRI because the government normally does not permit the level of open criticism of the president that is happening now within Mexico.  The splintering of the left into a rump PRD and a ineffective MOREAN will make the left, especially if the election works out the way the polls indicate, feels that it had no adequate representation within the political system, which is potentially very dangerous.

What is going on is strange as you point out.  The government level of popularity seems to be the lowest since the 1990s economic crisis yet PRI-PVEM seems set to cruise to victory.  In theory PAN should be in a position to come back but all this stuff with Calderon and his wife infighting with the rest of PAN is keeping the PAN back.
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ag
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« Reply #63 on: March 21, 2015, 12:30:43 PM »

Yeah.  The level of trust in institutions like the military are reaching very low levels.  EPN I think might be losing control of PRI because the government normally does not permit the level of open criticism of the president that is happening now within Mexico.  The splintering of the left into a rump PRD and a ineffective MOREAN will make the left, especially if the election works out the way the polls indicate, feels that it had no adequate representation within the political system, which is potentially very dangerous.

What is going on is strange as you point out.  The government level of popularity seems to be the lowest since the 1990s economic crisis yet PRI-PVEM seems set to cruise to victory.  In theory PAN should be in a position to come back but all this stuff with Calderon and his wife infighting with the rest of PAN is keeping the PAN back.

Which level of criticism? This is, actually, extremely mild by historic standards. No sign of trouble inside PRI.

The PAN problem is not Calderon fighting with the party - calderonistas have been successfully marginalized. It is the extremely inept and noticeably small-time corrupt current leadership.
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Zanas
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« Reply #64 on: March 22, 2015, 07:56:14 AM »

You would expect something like the current situation when you first elect Jorge Hank Rhon to any electoral office (former Mayor of Tijuana and a criminal), then elect Enrique Peña Nieto to President (current President, and a criminal)...

Mexico is verging on fascism it seems...
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ag
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« Reply #65 on: March 22, 2015, 10:25:16 PM »


Mexico is verging on fascism it seems...

Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini were, for the most part, perfectly upright civil servants, as far as stealing for personal benefit is concerned (Goering might have been another matter, but that is still not what he is, mostly, infamous for). The only ideology the present-day government of Mexico has, is lining its members' pockets. Stealing is not fascism and fascism is not stealing. It is merely regression to the 1970s.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #66 on: March 23, 2015, 09:31:07 AM »

How much of Mexico's political instability is a result of the failures of the no reelección tradition?
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ag
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« Reply #67 on: March 23, 2015, 11:03:21 AM »

How much of Mexico's political instability is a result of the failures of the no reelección tradition?

Where do you see any political instability?
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ag
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« Reply #68 on: March 23, 2015, 11:05:07 AM »

At the last moment, PRD and PT in DF have made it up and will be going (mostly) in coalition. So, the DF alliances are

PRD/PT/Panal
PRI/PVEM
PAN
MC (including the Ebrardistas)
Morena
PES
PH
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jaichind
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« Reply #69 on: March 23, 2015, 11:06:12 AM »

At the last moment, PRD and PT in DF have made it up and will be going (mostly) in coalition. So, the DF alliances are

PRD/PT/Panal
PRI/PVEM
PAN
MC (including the Ebrardistas)
Morena
PES
PH

Interesting.  I always thought that PT will go with Morena as well MC.  Surprising that Morena did not lock in an alliance with either PT nor MC.
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ag
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« Reply #70 on: March 23, 2015, 12:09:37 PM »

At the last moment, PRD and PT in DF have made it up and will be going (mostly) in coalition. So, the DF alliances are

PRD/PT/Panal
PRI/PVEM
PAN
MC (including the Ebrardistas)
Morena
PES
PH

Interesting.  I always thought that PT will go with Morena as well MC.  Surprising that Morena did not lock in an alliance with either PT nor MC.

New parties are not allowed alliances the first time they run. Morena cannot go in an alliance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #71 on: March 23, 2015, 02:24:34 PM »


New parties are not allowed alliances the first time they run. Morena cannot go in an alliance.

Wow.  I did not know that.  I assume this is to make sure that a new party cannot get out of the minimal threshold rule via an alliance and that it must prove its support level by itself and survive as a party by itself before it can be allowed to form alliances?
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ag
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« Reply #72 on: March 23, 2015, 06:28:41 PM »


New parties are not allowed alliances the first time they run. Morena cannot go in an alliance.

Wow.  I did not know that.  I assume this is to make sure that a new party cannot get out of the minimal threshold rule via an alliance and that it must prove its support level by itself and survive as a party by itself before it can be allowed to form alliances?

Basically. And, notice, the period for registering new parties was open before the midterms, when there is only one ballot that counts: the House. In the fullterms you have a choice of one of three ballots: House, Senate and Presidency, and 3% in either one of those would preserve the registry. But the new parties have to survive the hard way.
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jaichind
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« Reply #73 on: March 24, 2015, 07:47:02 AM »

If I am reading the news right, it seems that PT will go with PAN in  Estado de México, PRD in DF, Michoacán and Guerrero, and PRI in Querétaro (governor.) 
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jaichind
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« Reply #74 on: March 24, 2015, 08:01:18 AM »

Poll by  Financiero-Parametria

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/ventaja-del-pri-sobre-el-pan-solo-de-puntos.html

Has EPN approval at 39%

Party support gap has narrowed between PRI and PAN

PRI             30
PAN            27
PRD            12
MORENA     11
PVEM          10
MC               3
PT                2
PANAL          2

Looking at the graph it seems PRI-PVEM seems to be pretty stable at around 40-42 since Jul-Aug of 2014 despite EPN approval rating diving and the right direction/wrong direction taking a turn for the worse.
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