Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

Miguel Hidalgo borough of DF (it contains some of the richest parts of the city - Polanco, Lomas), but also some poorer districts (unlike the Benito Juarez, which is solidly middle class). MH had been in PAN hands from 2000 to 20012 (with a short break when a PANista delegado defected to PRD right before an election that replaced him with another PANista), but that year it was captured by PRD. This year PAN is running a heavy gun - Xochitl Galvez, former Indigenous Affairs secretary (a cabinet member) under Fox and an unsuccessful PANista candidate for Hidalgo state governorship. On the downside, PRI got an ex-PANista councilwoman, Laura Ballesteros to run on their ticket and a former PANista delegado, Arne aus den Ruthen is running as an independent, splitting PAN vote.  PRD, which is currently governing the borough, has to deal, of course, with the Morena split and, in addition its candidate just got enmeshed in a housing scandal (he lives just accross the border, in Cuahutemoc borough, so, to be able to claim that he is a local, he rented a penthouse in a newly built buidling - which turned out to be built illegally, with the aquiescence of the current PRD administration, and, possibly, of himself, as a local bureaucrat).

Anyway, this is the Reforma poll today

Xochitl Galvez (PAN) 33%
David Razú (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Laura Balleteros (PRI/PVEM) 14%
Hector Vasconcelos (Morena) 12%
Arne aus den Ruthen (independent) 10%
others (MC, etc) 3%

Xochitl Galvez has the advantage of beeing both best known and having the highest positives and lowest negatives (34% say they have a positive opinion of her, 11% say it is negative, 15% are neutral and 40% have no clue who she is). David Razú has the highest negatives (24% are positive, 17% negative, 18% neutral, 41% do not know him). The third best known candidate is Arne aus den Ruthen, even though he hasn't been a delegado in a dozen years (18% positive, 16% negative, 14% neutral, 52% do not know him). The others are unknown to 60% or more of the voters.

[ag]

El Universal Poll for SLP Governor has PRI-PVEM-PANAL neck-to-neck with PAN.  It has

PAN                            39.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        38.6
PRD-PT                       15.9
MC                               2.9
Morena                         2.2

The left parities are stronger than in 2009.  PAN's lead is actually getting smaller from a pervious poll.   If PAN does win it would be a flip from PRI.

PRI has only been back in power since 2009, though. It is a traditional PANista stronghold.

[ag]

Very unpleasant news today. Somebody has produced a tape of the INE chairman, Lorenzo Cordova, making fun (in a private conversation) of some indigenous leaders he had to meet. Overall, I have not seen ever such an attack on the electoral commission before the elections - not merely this, but the general attempt to undermine it is obvious. What is worst, the government and much of the well-meaning opposition are cooperating on this. Very worrysome.

[jaichind]

Very unpleasant news today. Somebody has produced a tape of the INE chairman, Lorenzo Cordova, making fun (in a private conversation) of some indigenous leaders he had to meet. Overall, I have not seen ever such an attack on the electoral commission before the elections - not merely this, but the general attempt to undermine it is obvious. What is worst, the government and much of the well-meaning opposition are cooperating on this. Very worrysome.

Yes.  I read this earlier today.  it seems that the comments were made in a private conversation that was
illegally recorded.  So we are neither here or there.  It is hard to investigate possible discrimination because the evidence was obtained illegally but it is not clear that the will have time to investigate who made this recording before the election. 

[ag]

Very unpleasant news today. Somebody has produced a tape of the INE chairman, Lorenzo Cordova, making fun (in a private conversation) of some indigenous leaders he had to meet. Overall, I have not seen ever such an attack on the electoral commission before the elections - not merely this, but the general attempt to undermine it is obvious. What is worst, the government and much of the well-meaning opposition are cooperating on this. Very worrysome.

Yes.  I read this earlier today.  it seems that the comments were made in a private conversation that was
illegally recorded.  So we are neither here or there.  It is hard to investigate possible discrimination because the evidence was obtained illegally but it is not clear that the will have time to investigate who made this recording before the election.  

There is no discrimination to talk about: there is exactly nothing under discussion at INE that is relevant. The native leader in question asked for reserved seats in Congress. Lorenzo Cordova can no more deliver this, than he can deliver the Moon - he implements the laws that the Congress adopts, he does not write the laws himself. There is no other "indigeneous rights" issue involved. He just made fun of having to go to zillions of completely unproductive meetings (as somebody, who has been trying to get a meeting for Lorenzo for quite some time now - and I know him personally - I can confirm that he is pretty damn busy). The choice of words was extremely unfortunate, of course (as was the mention of the meeting with the Ayotzinapa parents - even though, as far as LC is concerned, I can very well see why he thought it completely irrelevant).

This is more of a character attack. And a threat: we have a record of everything you have said on the phone. The fact is, INE is all that is standing between us and the restauration of the ancien regime.  An attack on it is extremely dangerous.

[jaichind]

Speaking if INE. Now that INE runs all elections including state elections will we have one centralized PREP for election night?

[jaichind]

http://www.milenio.com/df/PRD_preferencias-preferencias_electorales-encuesta_GEA-ISA-PRD_elecciones_0_521348061.html

GEA-ISA poll has for DF legislative assembly

PRD           28
PRI            17
PAN           13
Morena      12

I wonder what PVEM and PT support would be as that would make a difference.  This is a poor result for PAN who last few election cycles has been ahead of PRI-PVEM in DF even though well behind PRD.

[ag]

Speaking if INE. Now that INE runs all elections including state elections will we have one centralized PREP for election night?

I do not think so. This is, actually, quite strange.

When the reform was being discussed, I remember talking to people at IFE, and they were quite clear, they could not really run the state-level elections. For many reasons. For instance, because IFE/INE outside of the headquarters is structured around the 300 district committees, which do not coincide with the state subdivisions and districts. Because the reliable civil service within IFE was not big enough, and expanding it by incorporating state-level employees would mean abandoning the entire 2 decades of carefully building up this particular bureaucracy (this is the sort of the place where you look up the books at the shelves of the  midlevel employees and feel you want to talk). Etc., etc.

So, they managed to persuade the Congress not to simply merge the state electoral institutes into the national one. Instead, the state elections are still run by the state electoral institutes (now collectively rechristened as OPLEs -organismos publicos locales electorales). What changed is that if before the commissioners of these institutions were appointed by local political process (basically, state legislatures), now they are appointed by the INE board and subordinate to it.  They are still quite autonomous in their operation, though.

[ag]

In other news, INE has voted to strip PVEM of its TV and radio adverts for three days (I believe, the last three days of the campaign).

[ag]

http://www.milenio.com/df/PRD_preferencias-preferencias_electorales-encuesta_GEA-ISA-PRD_elecciones_0_521348061.html

GEA-ISA poll has for DF legislative assembly

PRD           28
PRI            17
PAN           13
Morena      12

I wonder what PVEM and PT support would be as that would make a difference.  This is a poor result for PAN who last few election cycles has been ahead of PRI-PVEM in DF even though well behind PRD.

Same pollster seems to be giving very strange results in NL (PRI 38%, PAN 33%, Independent "Bronco" 15% - far at variance with others). They were widely accused of manipulating their results for campaign reasons in 2012.

[ag]

In latest news, the electoral tribunal has ruled that up to 100% of the monthly public financing of PVEM can be withdrawn in payment of fines that it is incuring for blatantly violating the electoral law. Of course, to read that news I had to click through a full-page PVEM advert in El Universal.

[ag]

In the central borough of DF, Cuauhtemoc (includes, roughly, Mexico City proper within its boundaries of a 100 years ago) Morena is running for delgado one of its leaders: Ricardo Monreal, former PRDista governor of Zacatecas and current leader of Morena in the lower House of the Congress. PRI is running Alejandra Barrios, the most important leader of street vendors in the city center.  Reforma reports the following

Ricardo Monreal (Morena) 37%
Jose Luis Muños (PRD-PT-Panal) 22%
Alejandra Barrios (PRI-PVEM) 16%

[ag]

Fernando Elizondo, the MC candidate for the governorship of Nuevo Leon has withdrawn in favor of Jaime Rodriguez, "El Bronco", the independent candidate in the race.  Frankly, at this point it would make sense for the PANista to do the same - except for the possible down-ballot effects. In any case, this is becoming a race PRI may lose.

[ag]

Fernando Elizondo, the MC candidate for the governorship of Nuevo Leon has withdrawn in favor of Jaime Rodriguez, "El Bronco", the independent candidate in the race.  Frankly, at this point it would make sense for the PANista to do the same - except for the possible down-ballot effects. In any case, this is becoming a race PRI may lose.

Today´s Reforma has the NL poll. Importantly, the polling was done before Elizondo withdrawal and endorsement.

Jaime Rodriguez (Independent) 31%
Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-a local party) 26%
Felipe Cantu (PAN) 20%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 4%
everybody else - negligible
Undecided - 15%

We may be getting some history here!

For background. Rodriguez is an ex-PRIista, while Elizondo is an ex-PANista. Elizondo has been promised the job of the cabinet coordinator in the Rodriguez cabinet (along with a bunch of other ex-PAN people who endorsed Rodriguez yesterday - after this poll was conducted). Pressure is building on Cantu to endorse Rodriguez as well.

[ag]

In other news, Ebrard has been registered as a candidate for a "suplente" spot in Congress for MC (each congressional candidate runs in pair with a "suplente" who would take his job if the candidate himself resigns/takes a leave of absence). Still waiting for the courts' decision on this.

Electoral Tribunal unanimously disqualified Ebrard from running as a suplente as well, having ruled that doing this contrevenes the previous disqualification. That´s it, folks.

[ag]

Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

[jaichind]

Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

Wait, so Clara Brugada gets to run because she never ran in 2009 but was appointed into office.  So in cases like this the no reelection rule does not apply, right ?

[ag]

Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

Wait, so Clara Brugada gets to run because she never ran in 2009 but was appointed into office.  So in cases like this the no reelection rule does not apply, right ?

Technically, the only thing that is prohibited is consequitive reelection. It is only interpreted to be ALL reelection in case of the presidents and governors (in fact, though there is some precedent of former acting governors running for the same office some time later, even that is frowned upon). For mayors and legislators it has never been an absolute prohibition (and, of course, as of 2018 reelection to these positions, though subject to term limits, will be allowed). There are several ex-delegados running now. Most of them were delegados between 1997 and 2000 - so, technically, they were never elected to this position (the office was introduced in 1997, but first elections were held in 2000). But, say, Arne aus den Ruten, whom I mentioned, was delegado in Miguel Hidalgo between 2000 and 2003. The current delegado of Alvaro Obregon (Leonel Luna) is in his second (non-consequtive) term.

[jaichind]

The non-Mexican press seems to be picking up on "El Bronco" in NL.  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/el-bronco-says-atpercent-you-to-mexicos-political-parties/2015/05/25/1b96468c-ff09-11e4-8c77-bf274685e1df_story.html

He seems to be saying that he will renegotiate NL debt if elected.

[jaichind]

Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

This poll



which I am not sure how good it is, seems to have it other way around

[ag]

Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

This poll



which I am not sure how good it is, seems to have it other way around

Yep, was about to post this one. Seems you are reading La Razon

[jaichind]

Miguel Hidalgo borough of DF (it contains some of the richest parts of the city - Polanco, Lomas), but also some poorer districts (unlike the Benito Juarez, which is solidly middle class). MH had been in PAN hands from 2000 to 20012 (with a short break when a PANista delegado defected to PRD right before an election that replaced him with another PANista), but that year it was captured by PRD. This year PAN is running a heavy gun - Xochitl Galvez, former Indigenous Affairs secretary (a cabinet member) under Fox and an unsuccessful PANista candidate for Hidalgo state governorship. On the downside, PRI got an ex-PANista councilwoman, Laura Ballesteros to run on their ticket and a former PANista delegado, Arne aus den Ruthen is running as an independent, splitting PAN vote.  PRD, which is currently governing the borough, has to deal, of course, with the Morena split and, in addition its candidate just got enmeshed in a housing scandal (he lives just accross the border, in Cuahutemoc borough, so, to be able to claim that he is a local, he rented a penthouse in a newly built buidling - which turned out to be built illegally, with the aquiescence of the current PRD administration, and, possibly, of himself, as a local bureaucrat).

Anyway, this is the Reforma poll today

Xochitl Galvez (PAN) 33%
David Razú (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Laura Balleteros (PRI/PVEM) 14%
Hector Vasconcelos (Morena) 12%
Arne aus den Ruthen (independent) 10%
others (MC, etc) 3%

Xochitl Galvez has the advantage of beeing both best known and having the highest positives and lowest negatives (34% say they have a positive opinion of her, 11% say it is negative, 15% are neutral and 40% have no clue who she is). David Razú has the highest negatives (24% are positive, 17% negative, 18% neutral, 41% do not know him). The third best known candidate is Arne aus den Ruthen, even though he hasn't been a delegado in a dozen years (18% positive, 16% negative, 14% neutral, 52% do not know him). The others are unknown to 60% or more of the voters.

Looks like new poll has PRD ahead.

PRD-PT-PANAL           35
PAN                           28
PRI-PVEM                  14
Arne aus den Ruthen   9
Morena                        8
MC                               3

Looks like Morena voters are tactically shifting over to PRD to stop PAN.

BTW, why is there so much emphasis on borough heads on DF.  All the polls I find on this election seems to center around there 16 borough heads.  I find a lot less polling around the federal elections. It would be like having tons of polling on New York City Borough President elections but no polls on generic congressional ballots in USA election campaigns.

[jaichind]

If to extend my point.  I just found another DF borough head election poll



Which has PRD way ahead in Álvaro Obregón with 45% over PRI-PVEM at 24%

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll for Michoacan govenor has PRD ahead now

PRD-PT-PANAL         36.8
PRI-PVEM                32.1
PAN                         24.1

I am dumbfounded by this.  How can PAN be running a poor third given the total disaster PRD and then PRI administrations has been over law and order situation in Michoacan.  This is one where PAN should be winning and winning by a mile, if they manage to pull off an election.

 
 

[ag]

Mitofsky poll for Michoacan govenor has PRD ahead now

PRD-PT-PANAL         36.8
PRI-PVEM                32.1
PAN                         24.1

I am dumbfounded by this.  How can PAN be running a poor third given the total disaster PRD and then PRI administrations has been over law and order situation in Michoacan.  This is one where PAN should be winning and winning by a mile, if they manage to pull off an election.

 
 

Remember: PAN has never won in Michoacan. Not even in the 2000 presidential race - it was the one state Cardenas took that year. Nor in 2006, when PAN's winning presidential candidate was a Michoacan native - Calderon may have won nationwide, but he lost his home state.