Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

I agree: very little nationwide polling is strange. DF borough heads are, at least, names. Nobody knows who is running for Congress: this is pure party lable (believe it or not, I myself have not bothered to check who are my congressional candidates: their identities are irrelevant for my choice). But that is still not changing the strangeness of there being so little national polling.

[jaichind]

Remember: PAN has never won in Michoacan. Not even in the 2000 presidential race - it was the one state Cardenas took that year. Nor in 2006, when PAN's winning presidential candidate was a Michoacan native - Calderon may have won nationwide, but he lost his home state.

Yes,  but in 2007 and 2011 governor races PAN did manage solid 32%-33% of the vote for solid second place .  I just figure that given the poor track record of PRI and PRD in this state's administration they should at least poll around 32%-33% if not gain on top of that.

[jaichind]

I did find a VERACRUZ 8th district poll



PRI-PVEM    48
PAN             24
PRD-PT        17
Morena         5
MC                1

Back in 2012 PRI-PVEM won this narrowly

PRI-PVEM     36
PAN             35
PRD-PT-MC   26

[jaichind]

This site which I do not know much about but does seem to focus on Oaxaca more than others

http://www.escaparatepolitico.com/

has a image which shows some district polls for  Oaxaca



The image only has the first 8 of 11 Oaxaca districts.  But the site claims the poll has PRI 5 seats PRD 3 seats Morena 2 seats and PAN 1 seat.  Back in 2012 it was PRD-PT-MC 10 seats PRI 1 seat.  

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll for SLP governor has PRI on top

PRI-PVEM-PANAL           36
PAN                               28.8
PRD-PT                          25.4
MC                                  3
Morena                           5.8

The left parties vote share seems pretty high.  I suspect when the vote begins lots of the Left parties vote will migrate to PRI or PAN making this election still a tossup.

[jaichind]

Querétaro poll has it neck-to-neck with polarization pulling votes away from the left parties toward the two front runners mainly helping PAN as previous polls had the PRI with the edge.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT               45
PAN                                       45
PRD                                         4
MC                                          3
Morena                                    3

[jaichind]

Looks like media polls, which PAN rejects, show that PRI-PVEM is headed toward a 9-0 sweep in Chihuahua.  In 2012 it was PRI 7 PAN 2 with PAN winning 3rd and 6th districts by narrow margins as PVEM ran seperately.  This time around PRI and PVEM has an alliance like last time which gives PRI-PVEM the advantage.  Of course weather the Left voting bloc comes in the last minute to vote tactically will determine if this becomes the reality.

[jaichind]

Reforma poll on DF federal deputies

PRD-PT              25
Morena              23
PAN                   12
PRI                    11
PVEM                  9
MC                     4
PANAL                2

PRI-PVEM does have alliances in 16 out of 27 DF seats.  This polls shows the folly for PRI not get get alliances with PVEM in all 27 seats.  PRI+PVEM is actually at 20 and could have made a fight out of it.  But it seems that will only be true for some seats leaving PRD-PT and Morena to sweep most of the seats.

[jaichind]

Poll by El Imparcial for governor in Sonora.  PAN still ahead.

PAN                          32.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       28.7
PRD                            3.2  




El Universal poll has PRI-PVEM-PANAL ahead

PRI-PVEM-PANAL         45.8
PAN                             44.6
PRD                               2.7
Morena                          2.2

But the polarization toward PRI and PAN is clear draining the leftist parties votes.

[jaichind]

Pena Nieto 2Q Approval Rose to 46%, Highest Since ’13: GEA-ISA

[jaichind]

Mitofsky sent poll in e-mail ahead of June 7 elections for lower house.  It has with diff from Feb

PRI-PVEM    37.9  (-1.1)
PAN            23.9  (-2.1)
PRD-PT       20  (+1)
Morena        9.8  (+0.8 )
MC              3.9  (+0.9)
PANAL         3.1 (+1.1)

Looks like MC will survive as marginal MC voters who see this poll will be more likely to vote MC and not feel that their votes are wasted.  This is actually bad news for PRD-PT as they will then pick up less MC tactical votes.

[jaichind]

Mexico decided to halt teacher reforms by putting teacher testing on ice indefinitely.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2b1780d8-0898-11e5-b38c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3bxEqxwPx

It seems an attempt by PRI to shore up its voter support among teacher unions.

BTW, this did not stop radical Oaxaca teacher union activists from trying to stop the election process.  Oaxaca was where in 2006 there were a teacher union uprising that sought the ouster of the Oaxaca state governor.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article22813632.html

[jaichind]

Queretaro poll for governor by Votia has PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT ahead.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT               48.8
PAN                                       43.6
PRD                                         3.4
MC                                          1.0
Morena                                    3.2

[jaichind]

El Financiero-Parametría poll on lower house

PRI-PVEM             39
PAN                     25
PRD                     11
Morena                 9

[jaichind]

El Universal poll on lower house

PRI-PVEM        38
PAN                 24.7
PRD-PT            15.8
Morena              8.8
MC                    4.7
PANAL               2.8

[jaichind]

In Nuevo Leon, Jaime Rodriguez, known as ‘El Bronco,’ has 42% of voter preference when discarding undecided results, according to poll on website of Monterrey daily El Norte.

‘El Bronco'                      42%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL            29%
PAN                                24%

Looks like PRI is going to lose according to this poll even while PAN did not collapse which would be the condition I would think would be the way PRI loses this.  

Although other media polls has PRI ahead



Which has after you normalize out undecided

PRI-PVEM-PANAL       36
PAN                          29
‘El Bronco'                 29


Parametria has El Bronco with slight edge



‘El Bronco'                 34
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       32
PAN                          25

[jaichind]

Michoacán poll has 3 way tie



PRD-PT-PANAL           31
PAN                           31
PRI-PVEM                  30

[jaichind]

SLP has neck-to-neck between PAN and PRI-PVEM-PANAL



PAN                     38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  37
PRD-PT                 18

[jaichind]

http://news.yahoo.com/former-vigilante-leader-runs-office-mexican-elections-145841472.html
 
Hipólito Mora, a vigilante leader Michoacán is running on the MC ticket for Congress.  I actually saw a video about this guy a few months ago on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ6_i0cXQ8E

[jaichind]

Some PREP sites I found

Compeche              http://www.ieec.org.mx/
Michoacán              http://iem.org.mx/
Nuevo León            http://www.cee-nl.org.mx/
Querétaro               http://www.ieeq.mx/
San Luis Potosí        http://www.ceepacslp.org.mx/ceepac/index.php
Colima                    http://www.ieecolima.org.mx/
Baja California Sur  http://www.ieebcs.org.mx/
Sonora                   http://www.ieesonora.org.mx/
 Guerrero               http://www.iepcgro.mx/

Lower House         http://www.ine.mx/2015/PREP/difusores.html
 

[jaichind]

I did find a poll on Guerrero governor.    It has PRD ahead

PRD             36
PRI              27
Morena        11
PAN               1

[ag]

Some PREP sites I found

Compeche              http://www.ieec.org.mx/
Michoacán              http://iem.org.mx/
Nuevo León            http://www.cee-nl.org.mx/
Querétaro               http://www.ieeq.mx/
San Luis Potosí        http://www.ceepacslp.org.mx/ceepac/index.php
Colima                    http://www.ieecolima.org.mx/
Baja California Sur  http://www.ieebcs.org.mx/
Sonora                   http://www.ieesonora.org.mx/

Lower House         http://www.ine.mx/2015/PREP/difusores.html

I have not found any of the others yet.  Will update once I find them.

The preps are always linked frome the state electoral institutes´pages on the election day.

Sorry for having dropped out for a while: was traveling. Back home to vote

[ag]

off to vote

[jaichind]

Any news on turnout.  There are various protests to stop the elections in Oaxaca and Guerrero where there were instances of burned ballots and blocked polling stations.

[ag]

Voting over in most of the country, but is continuing in the western states for another hour. In a bit more than an hour Lorenzo Cordova of INE will be announcing the rapid count results.