Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

So, INE has announced (nearly) final seat allocation. It is not entirely final for two reasons. Firstly, the election will be repeated in one of the FPTP districts in Aguascalientes (I have to figure out why). And, of course, these results are still pending appeals to the electoral Tribunals - so they may still be revised.

For the moment, PT and PH lose their register, though PT gets to keep its 6 directly elected seats.

As for the elections in Aguascalientes, it will have a rather funny effect. PRI is capped by the 8% rule, so if it wins, it will lose a PR seat to MC. Of course, PRI might simply choose to run a PVEM candidate in the district instead (Actually, opposition claims that 7 of the so called "PVEM" FPTP winners are, in fact, card-carrying PRIistas, so that PRI should get 7 seats fewer on PR).

Anyway, here is the provisional distribution of the 499 seats (FPTP+PR=total)

PRI 155+48=203
PAN 55+53=108
PRD 28+37=55
PVEM 29+18=47
Morena 14+21=35
MC 10+15=25
Panal 1+10=11
PES 0+8=8
PT   6+0=6
Independent 1+0=1 (Clouthier Jr.)

PRI+PVEM get 250 seats, which, at least until Ags. 1 is rerun, gets them an outright majority.

[jaichind]

So, INE has announced (nearly) final seat allocation. It is not entirely final for two reasons. Firstly, the election will be repeated in one of the FPTP districts in Aguascalientes (I have to figure out why). And, of course, these results are still pending appeals to the electoral Tribunals - so they may still be revised.

For the moment, PT and PH lose their register, though PT gets to keep its 6 directly elected seats.

As for the elections in Aguascalientes, it will have a rather funny effect. PRI is capped by the 8% rule, so if it wins, it will lose a PR seat to MC. Of course, PRI might simply choose to run a PVEM candidate in the district instead (Actually, opposition claims that 7 of the so called "PVEM" FPTP winners are, in fact, card-carrying PRIistas, so that PRI should get 7 seats fewer on PR).

Anyway, here is the provisional distribution of the 499 seats (FPTP+PR=total)

PRI 155+48=203
PAN 55+53=108
PRD 28+37=55
PVEM 29+18=47
Morena 14+21=35
MC 10+15=25
Panal 1+10=11
PES 0+8=8
PT   6+0=6
Independent 1+0=1 (Clouthier Jr.)

PRI+PVEM get 250 seats, which, at least until Ags. 1 is rerun, gets them an outright majority.

Thanks for info.  It occurred to me years ago that in elections of 2009 2012 and now in 2015 the total number of seats PRI and PVEM wins is really a function of "how many FPTP seats will PVEM win" with the larger the better.  It then seems logical that PRI and PVEM should work to maximize within reason PVEM candidates in winnable seats.  Of course local PRI local barons would not go for this.  The obvious solution would be the PRI local barons should then run as PVEM candidates.  It was always seems weird that PRI-PVEM did not try this in 2009 and 2012.  At least it seems the are trying this in 2015.  They were rewarded with a gain in seats and near majority even with a lower share of the vote than 2012.

[jaichind]

Exactly what is the opposition objection to the seat allocation.  What I am reading is that they are saying that the 8% the rule should be applied to the PRI+PVEM vote share so the PR seats assigned to PRI and PVEM be constrained by that rule instead of just for the PRI.    It seems that Córdova has rejected such objections as trying to change the rules after the fact which I see as making a lot of sense.  You cannot just change the rules for PR allocation after the fact.   If the complain is that various PVEM candidates were really PRI members to get around the 8% rule then the complaint has some legs even though I still feel that while it violated the sprite of the law the rules are not broken since someone who is a member of one party is allowed to run, in my view, should be allowed to run on the ticket of another party.

[ag]

Well, there is, obviously, no valid objection. PRIistas are just a lot better at creating and exploiting loopholes than others. This is why I shudder every time our wonderful opposition parties go for another electoral reform. So far, unerringly, they have each time been making the law worse.

Anyway, the crucial thing now is the Ags. 1 election. This is almost the last chance for PT to get in. They did have over 3% in the district the first time - though barely. They would need, probably, to double that to cross the 3% nationwide (so far, they are off by about 3,000 votes - which is pretty much 3% of a district turnout). Given the stakes involved, I could see that happening. The possibilities range from PT getting in and PAN winning the district (which would give PT 6 PR seats, of which, I believe, 3 would come out of PRI/PVEM total, bringing it down to 247 - against 109 for PAN in that case) to PRI winning this with a "legally PVEM" candidate - which would give the PRI/PVEM combine 251 seats out of 500.

[jaichind]

Well, there is, obviously, no valid objection. PRIistas are just a lot better at creating and exploiting loopholes than others. This is why I shudder every time our wonderful opposition parties go for another electoral reform. So far, unerringly, they have each time been making the law worse.

Anyway, the crucial thing now is the Ags. 1 election. This is almost the last chance for PT to get in. They did have over 3% in the district the first time - though barely. They would need, probably, to double that to cross the 3% nationwide (so far, they are off by about 3,000 votes - which is pretty much 3% of a district turnout). Given the stakes involved, I could see that happening. The possibilities range from PT getting in and PAN winning the district (which would give PT 6 PR seats, of which, I believe, 3 would come out of PRI/PVEM total, bringing it down to 247 - against 109 for PAN in that case) to PRI winning this with a "legally PVEM" candidate - which would give the PRI/PVEM combine 251 seats out of 500.

Wait, for this re-vote are parties allowed to switch candidates, form or dissolve alliances from the first vote, or to withdraw their candidates.  In AGUASCALIENTES  PRI and PVEM did not have an alliance or else PRI-PVEM would have easily won 2 out of 3 seats.  So are PRI PVEM allowed to form an alliance for this revote?  If so then "obviously" the PRI-PVEM candidates will be a "PVEM member."  But in the first vote PRI and PVEM ran separately.    On the issue of PT, should PRD not just withdraw their candidate and call on all PRD voters to vote PT, who is an ally after all.  An ally who is going to get dissolved is not a useful ally.  The PRD vote share, if they mostly turn out and mostly vote PR should be enough for PT to get the 3000+ votes it needs.  Will PRD will be allowed to do this? And if so, will they?

[ag]

Well, there is, obviously, no valid objection. PRIistas are just a lot better at creating and exploiting loopholes than others. This is why I shudder every time our wonderful opposition parties go for another electoral reform. So far, unerringly, they have each time been making the law worse.

Anyway, the crucial thing now is the Ags. 1 election. This is almost the last chance for PT to get in. They did have over 3% in the district the first time - though barely. They would need, probably, to double that to cross the 3% nationwide (so far, they are off by about 3,000 votes - which is pretty much 3% of a district turnout). Given the stakes involved, I could see that happening. The possibilities range from PT getting in and PAN winning the district (which would give PT 6 PR seats, of which, I believe, 3 would come out of PRI/PVEM total, bringing it down to 247 - against 109 for PAN in that case) to PRI winning this with a "legally PVEM" candidate - which would give the PRI/PVEM combine 251 seats out of 500.

Wait, for this re-vote are parties allowed to switch candidates, form or dissolve alliances from the first vote, or to withdraw their candidates.  In AGUASCALIENTES  PRI and PVEM did not have an alliance or else PRI-PVEM would have easily won 2 out of 3 seats.  So are PRI PVEM allowed to form an alliance for this revote?  If so then "obviously" the PRI-PVEM candidates will be a "PVEM member."  But in the first vote PRI and PVEM ran separately.    On the issue of PT, should PRD not just withdraw their candidate and call on all PRD voters to vote PT, who is an ally after all.  An ally who is going to get dissolved is not a useful ally.  The PRD vote share, if they mostly turn out and mostly vote PR should be enough for PT to get the 3000+ votes it needs.  Will PRD will be allowed to do this? And if so, will they?

Good question. I do not, really, know. If I see Lorenzo, I should ask.

[ag]

Just to clarify one thing. Ags. 1 elections were not annulled because of some irregularities on election day. The Tribunal ruled that there was unfair interference by the governor (a priista) during the campaign. It would seem that this should imply a new campaign, including the new nominations, but I am not certain.

[jaichind]

Speaking of loopholes.  I did think up of an idea years ago for PRI to get around the 8% rule.  The idea is to have PRI "split" into PRI(Right) and PRI(Left.)  They can use the 2006 election results as a source of calibration.  

In all the states PAN won in 2006 PRI will become PRI (Right) and in all the states PRD or PRI won in 2006 PRI will become PRI(Left.)  In PRI(Right) states, PRI (Right) will take on more right-wing positions to take on PAN while PRI(Left) will also exist as an ally of PRI(Right) and will be made up of various PT PRD MORENA rebels whose job is to try to get some leftist votes.  In PRI(Left) states PRI(Left) will take on leftist positions to take on the Left while PRI(Right) will consist of PAN rebels whose job is to try to get some PAN votes.  In all states PRI(Right)-PRI(Left)-PVEM will form an alliance and support one candidate.  PRI(Right) and PRI(Left) will take turns are the Presidential level to nominate the common PRI(Right)-PRI(Left)-PVEM candidate.

This way, the 8% rule has been turned into a de facto 16% rule because in all PRI(Right) states the common candidate will be registered as PRI(Right) (or PVEM) and in all PRI(Left) states the  common candidates will be registered as PRI(Left) (or PEVM.)  As long as this "split" still retains most the PRI voting base and both PRI(Right) and PRI (Left) do win a bunch of district seats in roughly the same numbers and then PRI(Right)-PRI(Left)-PVEM should be able to win a majority in Lower House races with around 35%-40% of the vote as long as all opposition parties are split between PAN PRD and MORENA.

[ag]

Signs are still too early, but I would conjecture PAN and PRD would increasingly be going into coalition. Both parties are getting new leadership. PAN's new boss is Ricardo Anaya, who used to be part of Gustavo Madero's team, but is rapidly distancing himself from the former boss (Madero, contrary t expectations, was not made the head of the PAN faction in the Chamber). The apparent compromise front-runner for PRD leadership is a former "left-wing PRI" (Colosio type) academic, who has just joined the party, Augustin Basave. Basave has been pretty open about collaborating with PAN. Basically, the "non-populist" opposition is going to try to avoid splitting the votes in the future. Of course, there is still MORENA...

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

[Zanas]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

I f you hand them the power, then just the same as PRI. It's Mexico we're talking about, after all.

[ag]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

Not particularly. PRD is national socialist, PAN is christian socialist, both hate PRI. There is a lot in common, especially with MORENA taking over the populist wing of the PRD. Also, outside the DF they rarely are both competitive at the same time. So it would not, really, be a governing coalition - in some places panistas will support peredistas, in others it will be peredistas supporting panistas. They do a lot of that anyway. Makes a lot of sense.

[ag]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

I f you hand them the power, then just the same as PRI. It's Mexico we're talking about, after all.

Actually, not really. It is a lot more complicated.

What characterizes PRI is the traditional clientelistic machine. PAN has never been able to establish one, and PRD has only, really, done it in DF - and even here it is now largely in the hands of the MORENA.

[Zanas]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

I f you hand them the power, then just the same as PRI. It's Mexico we're talking about, after all.

Actually, not really. It is a lot more complicated.

What characterizes PRI is the traditional clientelistic machine. PAN has never been able to establish one, and PRD has only, really, done it in DF - and even here it is now largely in the hands of the MORENA.

I meant that if the country handed such a coalition the federal power for long enough, say 2 terms, such a clientelistic machine would easily emerge and would certainly be quasi-indistinguishable from the PRI's.

[jaichind]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

Well we have to be what is mean by coalition.  There has been electoral PAN-PRD coalitions before starting with the 2000 Chiapas Governor election where everyone including PAN PRD PVEM etc etc all ganged up on PRI and managed to win.  Also in 2010 there were a bunch of PAN-PRD alliances to stop PRI at the governor election level.  But that is not a governing coalition but just an electoral coalition.  I I guess for that to take place it will have to be a PAN-PRD joint Presidential candidate in 2018 as well as similar alliances in the House and Senate races followed by a ruling coalition in case they manage to beat PRI-PVEM.  I am not sure how likely this sort of alliance will take place beyond a pure tactical anti-PRI electoral alliance.

[ag]

What would a PAN-PRD coalition actually be like, politically? Unsavory, I take it?

I f you hand them the power, then just the same as PRI. It's Mexico we're talking about, after all.

Actually, not really. It is a lot more complicated.

What characterizes PRI is the traditional clientelistic machine. PAN has never been able to establish one, and PRD has only, really, done it in DF - and even here it is now largely in the hands of the MORENA.

I meant that if the country handed such a coalition the federal power for long enough, say 2 terms, such a clientelistic machine would easily emerge and would certainly be quasi-indistinguishable from the PRI's.

Interestingly, there is no evidence of this happening at state level. PAN has been in power in Baja California since 1989, and, to the best of my knowledge, there is nothing comparable there. PAN was in power for 2 terms at the federal level (2000-2012), and created nothing of the sort. In fact, even PRI has had trouble recreating it in states where it lost power for a term or two, and than regained it through elections. It is not quite your old Mexico.

[Famous Mortimer]

She's asking what kind of economic policy PAN-PRD would advocate.

[ag]

She's asking what kind of economic policy PAN-PRD would advocate.

Well, both are pretty socialist. PAN's main achievements in office were expansion of medical coverage and subsidized housing construction. But, in any case, they are not planning governing together.

[ag]

INE has formally stripped PT of registration. PT is appealing.

[jaichind]

INE has formally stripped PT of registration. PT is appealing.

I read about this as well.  I am surprised they did this even before the re-vote in  AGUASCALIENTES.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

She's asking what kind of economic policy PAN-PRD would advocate.

Actually I was more curious about political culture.

[ag]

She's asking what kind of economic policy PAN-PRD would advocate.

Actually I was more curious about political culture.

Peredistas and panistas voting for each other against PRI is something that has been pretty common. PRD has factions that culturally are not too far off.  Both parties have big presence in DF. Not too bad.

[jaichind]

Since the final special election is not over for this election I still get to post recent developments which is related to PRD-PAN sealing the "Stop the PRI" alliance in the upcoming governor elections next year in 2016 just like in 2010.  In 2010 PAN-PRD alliances managed to beat PRI governor races in 3 key states (namely Puebla, Oaxaca, and  Sinaloa).  Of course in 2010 it was an alliance of equals but now it is clear that PRD is the junior partner.  This could backfire on PRD as MORENA can claim that this is part of PRD selling out and as a result more disaffected members of the PRD might join MORENA.

In 2016 there will be 12 governor races.  PAN-PRD alliance holds 3 and PRI plus allies hold the other 9.  For Moreno Valle who is the current PAN governor of  Puebla it is key that PRI-PVEM is beaten back if he is to have a chance for the PAN nomination for President in 2018. 

In Sinaloa , there is also talk that ex-PAN Clouthier Junior who won as independent in the Congressional race might run as an independent and try to be another El Bronco.

The nine states presently governed by the PRI which will be contested next year
are Durango, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Hidalgo, Veracruz, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala and Quintana Roo. Veracruz and Aguascalientes are the only two of these states where a PAN-PRD has a realistic chance of unseating the PRI.   Veracruz, the largest state holding elections by population was narrowly won by the PRI-PVEM in 2010 over a coalition comprising the PAN and PANAL If the PRD climbed on board behind a well-chosen candidate, the PRI-PVEM could be defeated here.   The
PRI-PVEM won Aguascalientes by a similarly narrow margin over the PAN in 2010. 

If the PAN-PRD were to hold onto at least two of the three states they presently control next year and win in either Veracruz or Aguascalientes, they could gain important momentum heading towards the 2018 presidential and congressional elections. But the PAN is in a much stronger position to exploit
the partnership. MORENA is on a mission to supplant the PRD as the main political party on the Left by 2018.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s top electoral court annulled the gubernatorial election in the state of Colima citing undue intervention from current governor Mario Anguiano, newspaper Reforma reports.
Anguiano and winner Jose Ignacio Peralta are from same political party, Reforma says
Recorded evidence presented by opposition party allegedly shows state official telling other official to vote for Peralta as favor to Anguiano, Reforma says
Court ordered federal electorate institute to call for extraordinary elections: Reforma

[jaichind]

Looks like the re-vote for Aguascalientes 1st district will be on December 6.  It seems that it will be PRI-PVEM vs PAN-PANAL.  Somehow the PRI-PVEM candidate will be registered as PRI so they are not taking advantage of the 8% loophole.  I have no idea why not.  Last chance for PT to cross the threshold.