Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Midterm elections in June 7th 2015 for Mexico for the Lower House. 

Also I believe there will be governor races for

Baja California Sur (current PAN)
Campeche (Current PRI)
Colima (Current PRI)
Guerrero (Current PRD)
Hidalgo (Current PRI)
Michoacán (Current PRI) - not sure about this one as it the PRI guy that won back in 2011 had to resign after a scandal where he is associated with a crime cartel so this might be a bye-election for governor
Nuevo León (Current PRI)
Querétaro (Current PRI)
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI)
Sonora (Current PAN)

Looks like this time independent candidates will be allowed due to change in electoral laws as well as the chance for re-election. 

I have to expect PRI to lose ground, most likely more to PRD than to PAN.  Anyone with any info on polls or predictions on how these elections will go ?
 

[jaichind]

http://www.mherrera.org/elections.html

seems to indicate that the election is June 7th 2015.  I agree historically the vote always seems to be in the first week of July but perhaps that got changed as part of the election law changes. 

[jaichind]

BTW, the law-and-order situation in Guerrero is so bad it is not clear they can actually hold elections.  Parts of Michoacán I think is in the same situation.

[jaichind]

PRI will be in trouble given the approval ratings of Nieto but it seems PRD is in even bigger trouble because of the various events in Guerrero.  It seems Cárdenas has left PRD which he founded and AMLO has formed his own separate party, MORENA.  It also seems to me that it is not clear PAN can benefit from all this.  The various reforms involving PEMEX which I think is logical on the long run is not that popular and PAN will share the blame for this in the June elections.   

[jaichind]

Pemex reform has little to do with PAN - it is designed, pushed for and implemented by PRI. PAN played and is playing a very secondary role pretty much only throug congressional support, and is not involved in any execution. The bigger problem is distinct smell of corruption emanating from extremely uninspiring leadership. They have gotten rid of most popular and/or clean faces in the party - the PR lists for congress look ugly. Now, that corruption smell is, definitely, coming stronger from PRI, and PRD has to deal with an even stronger narco flavor, but the current PAN leadership is not the sort that wins any popular votes.

Morena is to be watched. It is, unusually for Mexico, a purely personalist party, with (which strongly distinguishes it from PRD) no intraparty democracy or discussion. Its sole reason for existence is AMLO, its candidates are imposed by him, but that also means much better internal cohesion and control. It might be the future face of Mexio's national socialism.

Thanks for clearing up the PAN role in Pemex reforms.  I always thought that Pemex reforms were on the PAN agenda but could not get it done with PRI in the opposition.  

As for Morena I assume one of the reasons is for AMLO have a clear run in 2018.  I am sure he hoped that bailing out on PRD given the Guerrero fiasco and try to disassociate  himself from the PRD and Guerrero will help.  Of course when 2018 comes around and AMLO insist on running the PRI and PAN will drag out photos of him and the Iguala mayor and with the governor of Guerrero on the campaign trail in 2012.

[jaichind]

For Michoacán governor it seems PRI is going with Orihuela as a compromise candidate for the various PRI factions.  Looks like PAN will go with former PAN president Calderón's sister Luisa Calderón who lost last time around.  I have yet to find any polls but I am sure Calderón must be ahead due to name recognition and the pathetic record of PRI and PRD brand right now.  Of course there might not even be an election in  Michoacán.

[jaichind]

I wonder this time around will PAN and PRD form tactical alliances to stop PRI.  Most likely not is my guess.  Also will MORENA nominate candidates for governor, especially in places like Guerrero ?  Of course that assumes there will even be elections held. 

[jaichind]

http://www.sdpnoticias.com/columnas/2015/01/20/encuesta-parametria-empate-pri-pan-empate-prd-morena-verde-y-gana-el-no-molesten

President Enrique Pena Nieto’s PRI party has 23% of voter preference less than five months before June midterm elections vs. 20% support for PAN, according to household poll by Parametria, El Financiero reports.

25% did not respond to question of party preference in Parametria poll
PRD has 9% support
Morena and Green Party have 7% each
Five other parties have 2% or less
Excluding those who did not express party preference, PRI would have 31% support followed by 27% for PAN and 12% for PRD: Financiero
Parametria poll shows Pena Nieto has 42% approval rating vs. 41% in late 2014 and 44% about a yr ago: Financiero
53% disapprove of Pena Nieto in poll this month, unchanged from late last yr and in early 2014

If the Greens continue with their alliance with PRI this poll does seem to put PRI-PVEM in a strong position to do well, which is surprising.  I guess despite the bad narrative coming out of the PRI government, the alternative to PRI-PVEM does not seem that great either.  I guess if anyone is going to challenge PRI-PVEM it will be PAN with the Left split between PRD and AMLO party (Morena)

[jaichind]

Anyone know the status of PANAL now that Gordillo has been charged with corruption.  Are they going to even run in 2015 ?  And if so will they ally with any party?  I guess PRI would be the natural choice but the fact that Nieto arrested Gordillo does put a spoiler on things. 

[jaichind]

Looks like  Ebrard is going to run in this year's congressional election.  Perhaps this is part of his bid to become the leader of the PRD.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2015/02/02/former-mexico-city-mayor-to-run-for-seat-in-congress/

Also due to falling oil prices it seems the controversial Mexico City – Querétaro  high-speed rail project has been  “indefinitely postponed”.  This cannot help the PRI in Querétaro.

[jaichind]

Latest Parametria-El Financiero poll excluding voters who won’t vote/don’t know/didn’t respond

PRI      32%
PAN     26%
PRD     13%
PVEM   11%
Morena  9%

Note that PRI and PVEM will have an alliance.  PVEM seems to be the Komeito Party of Mexican politics.   It seems to have a small but significant and transferable vote bloc which is very useful as an ally for a major party.  If this poll is indicative of levels of support it seems PRI-PVEM will sweep to victory. 

In other news, PRD seems to have dropped Ebrard from its PR party list.   I have no idea why and if this is the level of pettiness of intra-party infighting,  then the PRD is looking at a very bad election night.  Humiliating its most popular political figure is not going to expand the vote based of a party.   

[jaichind]

Universal poll

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion-mexico/2015/encuesta-pri-cae-y-morena-avanza-a-4-meses-de-las-elecciones-1079356.html

seem to have

PRI        30
PAN       26
PRD       13
PVEM     11
Morena    9

However, all three major parties generate more negative than positive opinions -- 43% in
the case of the PRI, 33% for the PRD and 28% for the PAN.

Still with PRI-PVEM with an alliance, as long as they can transfer their support to each other PRI-PVEM still seem to have a significant advantage.

[jaichind]

Former Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said Friday he is splitting with the country's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, citing what he described as its increasing closeness to President Enrique Pena Nieto and the governing PRI.  It seems he will join MC and run in this June's elections for Congress.

 

[jaichind]

A bit late

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2377375&CategoryId=14091

Consulta Mitofsky poll for Lower House elections has

PRI        31
PAN       26
PRD       16
MORENA  9
PVEM       8

Which seems to match all other polls so far.  I am surprised how much PRD and MOREAN support has held up given the sectarian battles between the two last few months.

[jaichind]

GEA-ISA poll is is again consistent with other polls

PRI        33
PAN       28
PRD       14
Morena    9
PVEM       7

If PRI and PVEM can transfer their support to each other in their alliance tickets, then this midterm election will be the first time since 1991 that a Mexican Midterm does not end up as a disaster for the ruling party like 1997 2003 and 2009.

[jaichind]

A bit more than a week ago tehre was a Nuevo Leon governor poll by Parametria-El Financiero. The numbers a curious

Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-PD) 40% 37%+2%+1%+0% - the last of the parties is a local outfit
Jaimer Eliodoro Rodriguez (Independent) 27%
Felipe de Jesus Cantu (PAN) 22%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 5%
PRD 2%
PH 2%
PT 1%
Morena 1%
everybody else negligible

Interesting, it seems that now the election systems allows for independents we actually have a live case where it is making a difference.  I assume this independent is center-left as he seems to be taking vote share from parties like PRD PT and Morena.  If so I think a rational  PRD PT and Morena is to endorse this center-left independent to try to make fight of it with PRI.   

[jaichind]

He is a former priista. NL has no left, really.

I see.  But did not ALMO get 22% of the vote in NL in 2012.  That seems to indicate that here is a small but still significant left vote.  PRD PT MC and Morena did not seem to get much of that in this poll which leads me to suspect that the PRI rebel might have picked up most of that support.  Anyway it seems before independents are allowed to run, such a PRI rebel might run on the PRD ticket.  Now he can just run as an independent.  This change might hurt the PRD in PRI dominated states, although I see NL as more of a PAN state.   

[jaichind]

Yeah.  The level of trust in institutions like the military are reaching very low levels.  EPN I think might be losing control of PRI because the government normally does not permit the level of open criticism of the president that is happening now within Mexico.  The splintering of the left into a rump PRD and a ineffective MOREAN will make the left, especially if the election works out the way the polls indicate, feels that it had no adequate representation within the political system, which is potentially very dangerous.

What is going on is strange as you point out.  The government level of popularity seems to be the lowest since the 1990s economic crisis yet PRI-PVEM seems set to cruise to victory.  In theory PAN should be in a position to come back but all this stuff with Calderon and his wife infighting with the rest of PAN is keeping the PAN back.

[jaichind]

At the last moment, PRD and PT in DF have made it up and will be going (mostly) in coalition. So, the DF alliances are

PRD/PT/Panal
PRI/PVEM
PAN
MC (including the Ebrardistas)
Morena
PES
PH

Interesting.  I always thought that PT will go with Morena as well MC.  Surprising that Morena did not lock in an alliance with either PT nor MC.

[jaichind]

New parties are not allowed alliances the first time they run. Morena cannot go in an alliance.

Wow.  I did not know that.  I assume this is to make sure that a new party cannot get out of the minimal threshold rule via an alliance and that it must prove its support level by itself and survive as a party by itself before it can be allowed to form alliances?

[jaichind]

If I am reading the news right, it seems that PT will go with PAN in  Estado de México, PRD in DF, Michoacán and Guerrero, and PRI in Querétaro (governor.) 

[jaichind]

Poll by  Financiero-Parametria

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/ventaja-del-pri-sobre-el-pan-solo-de-puntos.html

Has EPN approval at 39%

Party support gap has narrowed between PRI and PAN

PRI             30
PAN            27
PRD            12
MORENA     11
PVEM          10
MC               3
PT                2
PANAL          2

Looking at the graph it seems PRI-PVEM seems to be pretty stable at around 40-42 since Jul-Aug of 2014 despite EPN approval rating diving and the right direction/wrong direction taking a turn for the worse.

[jaichind]

Latest Reforma poll

PRI         32%
PAN        22%
PRD        14%
MORENA   8%
PVEM        7%

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-31/green-is-good-as-mexican-ruling-party-seeks-allies-to-keep-power

Bloomberg article about the key role of PVEM will play in keeping the PRI majority in the upcoming election.

[jaichind]

BGC-Excelsior poll.  Not sure how good of a pollster BGC-Excelsior is.

http://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&idioma=1&id=3685341&Itemid=1

PRI               36
PAN              22
PRD              15
PVEM             8
Morena          7
MC                3
PANAL           3