Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

http://www.mherrera.org/elections.html

seems to indicate that the election is June 7th 2015.  I agree historically the vote always seems to be in the first week of July but perhaps that got changed as part of the election law changes. 

Yes, it did. Election officials are very nervous about voting with schools in session.

[ag]

Michoacan governor may have had many reasons to resign, but the main one is that he is truly - and, it seems, desperately - sick. He did spen much of his term on leave, I believe had a liver transplant.

[ag]

PRI will be in trouble given the approval ratings of Nieto but it seems PRD is in even bigger trouble because of the various events in Guerrero.  It seems Cárdenas has left PRD which he founded and AMLO has formed his own separate party, MORENA.  It also seems to me that it is not clear PAN can benefit from all this.  The various reforms involving PEMEX which I think is logical on the long run is not that popular and PAN will share the blame for this in the June elections.   

Pemex reform has little to do with PAN - it is designed, pushed for and implemented by PRI. PAN played and is playing a very secondary role pretty much only throug congressional support, and is not involved in any execution. The bigger problem is distinct smell of corruption emanating from extremely uninspiring leadership. They have gotten rid of most popular and/or clean faces in the party - the PR lists for congress look ugly. Now, that corruption smell is, definitely, coming stronger from PRI, and PRD has to deal with an even stronger narco flavor, but the current PAN leadership is not the sort that wins any popular votes.

Morena is to be watched. It is, unusually for Mexico, a purely personalist party, with (which strongly distinguishes it from PRD) no intraparty democracy or discussion. Its sole reason for existence is AMLO, its candidates are imposed by him, but that also means much better internal cohesion and control. It might be the future face of Mexio's national socialism.

[ag]

So, a few words on the election.

Firstly, let us welcome the three new political parties.

MORENA. The National Renewal Movement, with the wonderful abbreviation, which means something like "BLACKY". A typical Mexican national socialist faction, with the distinction of being a peronal vehicle of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Tired of having to deal with factions in the notoriously factional PRD, or else having to talk nicely to the owners of the PT and/or MC, AMLO created his own movement, taking away most of his loyalists (he did leave a few back in PRD so that he still has some impact on the tribal warfare within that party - but these will, probably, jump ship pretty soon) . From now on, AMLO is free to nominate his own for any office with no internal opposition from any quarter. We need to see how much of the PRD machine it will be able to capture, but, at least, it is pretty clear that it will get a nice chunk of the reliable national socialist vote. As long as AMLO is around, this one will be around. What is less clear is what will happen to the other forces in the same camp. PRD (now dominated by the "New Left" or the "Chuchos" faction) will be badly hit, but it has enough of its machine left that its survival, for the moment, is not an issue. PT, and, especially, MC have a reason to worry. If I had to bet, MC will be out.

Humanist party (PH). A somewhat anodyne grouping of the minor unionists. A partial reincarnation of the "peasant" wing of the "social democratic and peasant" party of a few years back. Should be for sale, but I have not, yet, figured out, whom it is supposed to be sold to.

Social Encounter Party (PES). A minor Baja California state party that managed to obtain the federal register this time. I have no clue why and what for. Chances are, this one is entirely ephemeral.

Keep in mind, besides many other electoral law changes, they also increased the party survival threshold to 3%. And this is a midterm, so only the lower house of Congress is elected. So each party needs to get 3% on that one vote to survive.  Tough order.

Independents, judging by the role they have played in the few states where they had been allowed in recent years, will be entirely inconsequential.

[ag]

What does "New Left" mean in this context?

Nueva Izquierda. A name of one of the traditional PRD "tribes". Otherwise they are known as "The Chuchos". They got the control of the party machinery, at least in the center.

What is the ideological inclination of the current PRD?

Same as always, more or less. Broadly traditional Mexican national socialist. Defend the energy, etc. The ideological disagreements do not play a major role here. It is the tribal allegiance

Also, you're saying AMLO's party is definitely going to dwarf the PRD?

Might. Especially now that Cardenas left the party. But machinery is machinery, and the Chuchos are no babies. But it will be a major split.

[ag]

Thanks for clearing up the PAN role in Pemex reforms.  I always thought that Pemex reforms were on the PAN agenda but could not get it done with PRI in the opposition.  

PAN always wanted to do it, but never had a chance. Not only because PRI was in opposition, but also because they never quite knew how to monetize it for personal benefit. PRI people know and are eager. And, you know, money trumps even the religious considerations, like the sanctity of Mexican national oil.

As for Morena I assume one of the reasons is for AMLO have a clear run in 2018.  I am sure he hoped that bailing out on PRD given the Guerrero fiasco and try to disassociate  himself from the PRD and Guerrero will help.  Of course when 2018 comes around and AMLO insist on running the PRI and PAN will drag out photos of him and the Iguala mayor and with the governor of Guerrero on the campaign trail in 2012.

He was building up MORENA long before Iguala. The real reason is that in the past he needed someone else´s agreement to get the nomination: PRD is a big tribal federation, with some of the tribes hating him with passion, and only a few of them naturally allied to him; and PT/MC are under the control of their leader-owners. So, he needed to pay some obeisance to the MC/PT little strongmen to get those lines (in exchange for guaranteeing their register) and then use the fact that he would be on ballot anyway to scare out the PRD rivals. Now he has a party line of his own, he will be on the ballot as long as he is alive (he has had a heart attack recently). Everybody knows this now, three years ahead of time, so every "leftist" potential candidate knows that he will be splitting the votes with AMLO: that is, s/he will have no chance.

But besides the clear road to nomination, now he has something else: the national party line which he fully controls. Before he had to offer the PT/MC folk to support some of their candidates. He also had his guys participate in the internal PRD nomination process. Also, the PT/MC owners played the same game within the PRD, building alliances - not always with him.  Sometimes he won, sometimes he lost, but, in any case, he never had an absolute control over nominations. Now he has it. He can nominate his pet turtle to run for Governor of Nayarit if he so likes: and this being the AMLO turtle it will get some votes, the prospect of which may, actually, force the other "leftist" parties nominate it as well.

[ag]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

Mexican political spectrum has always gone from national socialism (fascism) on the left to Christian socialism on the right. Mussolini would fit very well into traditional PRI or PRD ideologically. I do not see why not the use precise description.

[ag]

It's a bit unsettling when you use "national socialist" that much. Do you mean actually national-socialist ? I don't recall the PRD having this kind of inclination. Maybe you should choose another word to describe their policies. Or is it how they are described in Mexico ?

Yeah, nationalist socialist is better. Describing a left wing party with the other label is too trollish.

There was never a Mussolini or Hitler in Latin America to take the local fascism right. It stayed. It is not that there is no other left anywhere in Latin America: arguably, this does not apply to Chile or Uruguay. But for corporativist statist hard nationalist antidemocratic parties of the peronista/priista style - why invent terminology, when the traditional one fits like a glove?

[ag]

lol

It is, actually, not funny. Especially, when we have AMLO and his "subtly" named MORENA to deal with.

[ag]

National socialism has been quite strongly identified to, and only to, the Nazi movement in Germany between 1923 and 1945.

Ok, I agree, I will just say "fascist" from now on. More precise - as it indicates comparison with the Mussolini Italy - the comparison that is most apt - and does not involve mass murder. Would you be fine with that?

[ag]

to a foreigner ranking them as "national socialists" will inevitably make them think they organize massive 1,000,000 member rallies with a funny logo on an armband in stadiums across the country on a monthly basis...

Well, except for the armband and the stadium (these, generally, have to be used for football in Mexico), that sounds about right

[ag]

Plus, I get from your posts that you are dogmatically using the terminology whereas it's not even commonly in use in Mexico. So, I won't convince you to stop, but it's not an honest practice, not to mention not the most clarifying for foreigners who do not know Mexican politics very well.

If you haven't noticed by now: ag is - among other things - a major league troll and you shouldn't expect "honest practice" or fairness from him.

I think, in this particular case I have been quite fair. Did I say a good word about any other party involved?

[ag]

Ag can be spectacularly Russian sometimes

More Jewish, perhaps. At least as far as the sense of humor is concerned

Though, of course, cannot (and would not) deny the country of my birth

[ag]

On a more serious note, it is precisely using the clear terminology that clarifies things. Obfuscation involved in denying the obvious similarity between the Latin American left and European ultra-right is what confuses things. The fact that Berlusconi and Chavez are ideological twins is obvious to all who care to pay attention. This sort of an observation would be viewed as a triviality around the lunch table at my office - well, yeah, and France is in Europe, what else is new? I am just trying to be of help to Europeans here.  Perhaps that is what is called trolling (I am certain, our Scandinavian friends would be experts on that )

[ag]

Anyone know the status of PANAL now that Gordillo has been charged with corruption.  Are they going to even run in 2015 ?  And if so will they ally with any party?  I guess PRI would be the natural choice but the fact that Nieto arrested Gordillo does put a spoiler on things. 

Yes, of course, they are running. This is a LINE ON THE BALLOT. And, BTW, lots of money from the state.

They will shop around. For instance, in DF they seem to have made an alliance with PRD. Negotiations with PRI do not seem to have worked out.

[ag]

Not even, for the most part, Mexicans Other Latin Americans are quite well represented

I am simply making the point, which I am sure would be appreciated by European posters here, that much of Latin American (and, definitely, Mexican) left is archaic, by European standars - Mussolinesque archaic that is. It is fundamentally anti-democratic, corporativist, and VERY nationalist.  It helps to know that, by supporting the ostensible left, you are supporting Latin American Berlusconis

That does not mean that every leftist politician is a potential dictator - it takes a certain kind. For instance, I would never consider Cuauhtemoc Cardenas a "potential dictator" - he, most certainly, is not and has never been. Even his father, though he was, arguably, a bona fide dictator, was of a rather different cloth. And, of course, the plural ("tribal") internal organization of PRD avoided the worst: it never had a proper leader cult and it always retained the decidedly unfascist need for compromises within party. Hence, whatever the ideological inclinations of most party leaders, it has been a fundamentally democratic organization.

MORENA, of course, is a very different beast. It is a proper leader-based party, fully controlled by an individual with clear messianic pretentions. AMLO is not, really, particularly leftist - not even in the Mexican political spectrum.  He is, most definitely, no further left (whatever that means) than Cuauhtemoc Cardenas. He, as you say, is an old PRI goon. But, unquestionably, he is a potential fascist dictator - that is what he wants, that is what he works for. This is the case of personality and political ideology fitting together well.

[ag]

Looks like  Ebrard is going to run in this year's congressional election.  Perhaps this is part of his bid to become the leader of the PRD.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2015/02/02/former-mexico-city-mayor-to-run-for-seat-in-congress/

Also due to falling oil prices it seems the controversial Mexico City – Querétaro  high-speed rail project has been  “indefinitely postponed”.  This cannot help the PRI in Querétaro.

There is also an across the board budget cut announced. Not much in trrms of polling though, yet.

[ag]

It helps to know that, by supporting the ostensible left, you are supporting Latin American Berlusconis

I think the more obvious equivalent to Berlusconi in Latin America is Carlos Menem. Not only because both are populist right-wingers, it's because of certain frivolity associated to them: the politics of spectacle (Argentinians say "la farandulización de la política")

Well, yeah, peronism is the same sort of a phenomenon in any case. Chavez, though, also loved the spectactle, didn´t he?

[ag]

Chávez was a good showman, as well certain peronist caudillos. Berlusconi and Menem have something more in common: womanising and a certain taste for ostentation, for example.

Well, womanizing is hardly a political characteristic.

National Womanizer Party, though, would sound nice

[ag]

Believe it or not, womanising was a part of the Berlusconi's appeal. When the political message is focused on the 'captivating' personality of the leader (Berlusconi and Menem are text book examples, there are lots of references on the 'politics of spectacle' and the 'farandulización' out there), I think it's hard to distinguish between 'personal' and 'political' characteristics. On the other hand, I think bold generalisations aren't usually good. It'd be better if we focus on the June elections

No doubt it was. But, that is just exploiting personality of the leader. If, instead o keeping her under wraps, Hitler made a point of having his sex with Eva B. broadcast in cinemas, that would, certainly, provide an interesting flavor to Nazi rule, but would hardly change the substance.

Then, going back to July elections, there is hardly more substance to our current president than his pretty wife and her corruptly acquired house

[ag]

For some reason I didn't realize until reading ag's post up above that Cuauhtemoc Cardenas was Lazaro Cardenas's son.

History is still alive

[ag]

Why dropping Ebrard? Because he is not a Chucho (pun not intended) and does not have a particularly strong faction of his own, and, in any case, nobody wants him as a potential presidential contender. Additionally, his successor as mayor (Mancera) detests Ebrard (I guess, for the crime of anointing Mancera as his own successor) - and, though not a party member himself, he has weight and active city machine on his side.

Both Morena and MC suggested they may give Ebrard a slot on one of their lists. Going with Morena would mean, once again, becoming an AMLO minion - a humiliating outcome by itself. MC runs the risk of not getting the 3% necessary to get in (they've raised the threshold). And he needs to get in, as he may be prosecuted for the alleged crimes having to do with metro construction while he was mayor (a seat in congress comes with immunity attached). Another option is for him to run in a district. But, once again, he may have hard time being nominated by PRD - especially in DF. That would leave the possibility of a run as an independent (this is now allowed) - but independents rarely win.

[ag]

Former Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said Friday he is splitting with the country's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, citing what he described as its increasing closeness to President Enrique Pena Nieto and the governing PRI.  It seems he will join MC and run in this June's elections for Congress.

 

Yep, Ebrard gets the first slot on one of the MC regional PR lists. More importantly, it is not just he, who is leaving: seems like his entire "corriente" (Movimiento Progresista) is gone from the PRD and has signed a formal agreement with MC. Smart move on the MC part: this is their only chance to get to the newly raised 3% threshold. Not that Ebrard, by any means, guarantees it, but, at least, he is a face of note. They also got the former PAN leader Espino - but that is more of a loose cannon.

Also, the Bejarano "corriente" (Izquierda Democratica Nacional) is extremely humiliated and unhappy: they were given very few slots to run in DF. If  previously they had, at least, 6 of the 16 delegaciones, they are now given candidacies in 3, and one of those is Benito Juarez, where PAN always wins.

To a large extent, both splits are the consequence of the decisions by Mexico City mayor Mancera, who, even though not even a member of the party, has insisted on getting rid of his opponents.  But, of course, it is the "chuchos", who control the party, who operationalized it.

In any case, for all practical purposes, the PRD is now just the chuchos (Nueva Izquierda) and manceristas (Vanguardia Progresista). They do not have anybody, who can be claimed to be a popular politician: certainly, that would not be Mancera.

[ag]

So what exactly is this MC ? The acronym hasn't once been developed in either page of this thread, it seems.

Citizen's Movement. One of the tiny little satellite parties that floats around the PRD.

Used to be called Democratic Convergence. Stands for having a vaguely leftist line on the ballot, and is at grave risk of losing it.

[ag]

I look forward to seeing DF's hilarious election results.

PAN is collapsing in DF as well. So results might be, indeed, quite strange. Winning a Delegacion with 25% of the vote seems quite possible at this point. Of course, camps might cristallize by the election day. But if they do not, it will all be very unpredictable.