Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

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Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.

To be fair, AMLO did beat Calderón in Michoacan in 2006. Which would make a Panista win so, so very sweet for Señora Calderon.

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Why did the Greens ally themselves with the PRI? The PRI seems much too technocratic for them, and their social conservatism puts them closer to the PAN, at least if it is true that the Mexican Greens have an uncharacteristic streak of social conservatism.

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http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.