WI: Jeb Bush Had Won the Florida Governorship in 1994 (instead of in 1998)

[Frodo]

The 1994 Florida gubernatorial contest between Jeb Bush and incumbent Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles was the second closest election in Florida history, and could easily have gone the other way -and Jeb Bush's loss is a major reason why his older brother, George W., became the Republican presidential nominee in 2000 instead of him.

Let's suppose instead that both Jeb Bush (along with George W.) had become governors of their respective states in that same year (and re-elected in 1998) -how differently would history have unfolded?  Would Jeb Bush have become the GOP's presidential nominee in 2000 instead?  And if so, would he have done better against Vice-President Al Gore?  And how different would his presidency have been compared with his brother's?

[Jerseyrules]

Well one thing I can say for sure is Florida was have been a clear cut Republican win in 2000.

This.  Maybe more outreach to minorities and less socially conservative rhetoric, at least in terms of elections.  Also definitely not quite the same personality, though I'd imagine policy would be fairly similar.  Perhaps more adherence to the Powell Doctrine in foreign affairs, no Cheney, a much more political VP candidate, etc. make for a much less hostile relationship with the press than his brother's OTL.

[Frodo]

bumpity, now that Jeb Bush seems center-stage....

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb wins the 2000 presidential nomination, and picks John Danforth as his running mate rather than Cheney.  He presumably wins Florida by a sufficiently large margin that there's no recount, and so no 2000 voting controversy.

The interesting question for a Jeb Bush presidency as I see it then is what direction foreign policy goes in on his watch.  GW tried to define himself largely in opposition to his father, and brought in not just Cheney, but Rumsfeld, who'd been frozen out of Poppy's administration.  So does Jeb take a more "Realist" tack, or does 9/11 push him in such a hawkish direction that he ends up at largely the same place anyway?

[RodPresident]

Gore strategy will change. He won't surrender South and fight for AR, KY, LA, TN, GA, NC and WV electoral votes. Maybe another Southern Democrat ticket. Gore running-mate probably is Max Cleland (senate replacement appointed by a Democrat governor, then easy)

[Maxwell]

Well one thing I can say for sure is Florida was have been a clear cut Republican win in 2000.

This.  Maybe more outreach to minorities and less socially conservative rhetoric, at least in terms of elections.  Also definitely not quite the same personality, though I'd imagine policy would be fairly similar.  Perhaps more adherence to the Powell Doctrine in foreign affairs, no Cheney, a much more political VP candidate, etc. make for a much less hostile relationship with the press than his brother's OTL.

Lol. Not a chance.

[Sumner 1868]

I actually suspect W. could still be the nominee. His claim to fame was being the "moral values" candidate, and the Texan accent gave that claim added credentials. The social conservatives are always key in  GOP primaries, but in 2000 they were especially fired up by Lewinsky and Columbine. Jeb simply lacks his brother's appeal with these voters.