The
1994 Florida gubernatorial contest between Jeb Bush and incumbent Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles was the second closest election in Florida history, and could easily have gone the other way -and Jeb Bush's loss is a major reason why his older brother, George W., became the Republican presidential nominee in 2000 instead of him.
Let's suppose instead that both Jeb Bush (along with George W.) had become governors of their respective states in that same year (and re-elected in 1998) -how differently would history have unfolded? Would Jeb Bush have become the GOP's presidential nominee in 2000 instead? And if so, would he have done better against Vice-President Al Gore? And how different would his presidency have been compared with his brother's?