2004 Bush vs. Dean

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Dean-Gephart 295
Bush-Cheany  243

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush 296
Dean 242

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dean-Clark 279
Bush-Cheney 259

Dean would have carried Iowa and Clark would have carried Ohio

Gephardt didn't like Dean

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

Dean MIGHT have won.  Had he picked Gephardt, he may have won MO and IA.  NM and WV would not have been out of the question in 2004.

Dean's an enthusiastic guy.  His "Yeaaaaaaaaaaaah!" gaffe wasn't really a gaffe so much as a function of the sound system.  He doesn't put me to sleep as some pols do, and he wasn't the stiff Kerry was. 

[Sumner 1868]

Dean polled quite badly in early 2004. I can see him losing about four states that went for Kerry.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Dean polled quite badly in early 2004. I can see him losing about four states that went for Kerry.

That could very well have changed when they got to the general. Dean was more exciting then Kerry and couldn't have been smeared with the flip flopper charge. I also feel like he appealed more to blue collar voters.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think Dems are kidding themselves here. It was the first post-9/11 election. Kerry was able to almost win because he was a Vietnam veteran and had foreign policy experience from his time in the Senate....Dean wouldn't have had those advantages. Remember, Kerry won independents...it's hard to see Dean, who ran a more liberal campaign, doing that.

"B-b-but Dean would've motivated the base more!" Wasn't the base already pretty motivated by their hatred of Bush? It's not like there was a significant number of people voting for Nader that year.

On the other hand, I think Zen Lunatic did make a good point that Bush and Co. would've needed a new line of attack since they couldn't lob the "but you voted for it!" charge at Dean.

Agree with tara that he would've lost 4 Kerry states...I'm guessing you were thinking of WI, NH, PA, and MI?

[Vega]

Oh boy, thankfully this didn't happen.

That being said, it probably would have done more good for the party to have Dean as the nominee in 04. Though, Obama might not speak at the convention and thus not get propelled to political stardom for a run in 2008.

[MATTROSE94]

Even then, this might be a bit too generous for Howard Dean. I remember reading that Karl Rove felt that George W. Bush would have won by a 1980-esque margin if Howard Dean was the Democratic nominee in 2004.

[NeverAgain]

Karl Rove said the same thing about Romney vs. Obama I never trust Karl Rove's statements.

[NeverAgain]

Dean/Kerry - 283 Bush/Cheney - 254

This one may be a stretch, but let's say the "screech in Iowa" gaffe hadn't happened, and continues a strong campaign. Dean goes on to win Iowa, NH (and gets a strong third in S.C.). Dean wins Michigan, Washington, Maine, Washington, D.C., Wisconsin, Utah, and Hawaii. And Second Place/Third Places in Tennessee, Nevada, and Utah. S.T. wins in CA, CT, MD, NY, OH, MN, and RH. With Second and Third (Respectively) in MA, and GA. Kerry Withdraws. Edwards Stays in until NC, then leaves. At the DNC, Dean chooses Kerry as his VP. He pushes hard for the Midwest, and after an endorsement (and heavy campaigning) by NM Gov. Bill Richardson pushes NM into Dean's sights.

[D] 60,721,281 [R] 60,255,678

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dean/Kerry - 283 Bush/Cheney - 254

This one may be a stretch, but let's say the "screech in Iowa" gaffe hadn't happened, and continues a strong campaign. Dean goes on to win Iowa, NH (and gets a strong third in S.C.). Dean wins Michigan, Washington, Maine, Washington, D.C., Wisconsin, Utah, and Hawaii. And Second Place/Third Places in Tennessee, Nevada, and Utah. S.T. wins in CA, CT, MD, NY, OH, MN, and RH. With Second and Third (Respectively) in MA, and GA. Kerry Withdraws. Edwards Stays in until NC, then leaves. At the DNC, Dean chooses Kerry as his VP. He pushes hard for the Midwest, and after an endorsement (and heavy campaigning) by NM Gov. Bill Richardson pushes NM into Dean's sights.

[D] 60,721,281 [R] 60,255,678

I think this would be a fine map for a Kerry/Graham or Kerry/Warner map, which clearly Kerry has the same constituency as Dean.

Dean as well as Kerry wouldn't have chosen one another as VP's because they are both from the North and they needed someone that appealed to the working class.

[NeverAgain]

This may have worked more for a Dean/Biden, I was kinda just making a fun TL at that point.

[Mister Mets]

I think Bush would have added New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota to his column.

Kerry had a reputation as a flip-flopper but the people worried he'd be too liberal weren't going to support Dean. It was also a better cycle for a war hero Senator.

It wouldn't have made a difference, but it's interesting to consider who Dean would have chosen for Veep.
Kerry would be too Northeastern, and Hillary wasn't going to agree.
Blanche Lincoln and Mary Landrieu were relatively qualified Southern female Senators.
John Edwards offers some of the same advantages he gave Kerry, with the added bonus of Dean needing a Senator more.
Tom Daschle added Washington experience.
Sam Nunn was a perpeutal veepstakes mainstay, with experience as a former Chariman of the Armed Services Committee.
Joe Biden had significant Washington experience/ foreign policy chops.
John Lewis was a civil rights hero.
Bill Richardson had a resume (although he was apparently a disaster as Secretary of Energy) and wouild also represent a milestone.
Mark Warner had some of Edwards' advantages but better political chops and no Washington baggage.

My guess is that it would have been Nunn or Biden.