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Senator Cris
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« Reply #125 on: July 02, 2015, 11:12:24 AM »
« edited: July 03, 2015, 03:04:00 AM by Senator Cris »

Blitzer: "It's 7.30 PM on the east coast and we are ready to make a projection


Alright, we can project that Governor Scott Walker will win the state of West Virginia and its 5 electoral votes. West Virginia is a state that is trending republican and tonight it is easily won by the republican nominee.



✔ Scott Walker 64.5%
Hillary Clinton 35.3%

We are not able to project the state of Ohio, the home-state of republican vice presidential nominee John Kasich and we are not able to project a winner in North Carolina.

Let's take a look at the electoral map. Right now, Governor Scott Walker has 33 electoral votes. Secretary Hillary Clinton has 3. Georgia, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina are undecided at this hour.



Scott Walker 33 (56.3% of popular vote)
Hillary Clinton 3 (42.8%)
No Projection 62

270 needed to win.

We have not enough informations to project a winner in North Carolina and Ohio, but we can take a look at our exit polls. Remember: these are only exit poll that may not neccesarily reflect the outcome of the race.

North Carolina
Scott Walker 51%
Hillary Clinton 48%

Ohio
Scott Walker 50%
Hillary Clinton 49%

If these exit polls are right, this is certainly a good news for Hillary Clinton. She is trailing in Ohio, but by just 1 point, compared to more than 2.5 points of the recent polls. Also she is running good in North Carolina, as Scott Walker, according to our exit poll, will win it but by the same margin of Mitt Romney four years ago.
Now, let's go to John King and its Magic Wall."

King: "Yes Wolf. We can start with Ohio. At this time, Hillary Clinton is ahead thanks to the fact that the majority of counties that have reported votes are traditional democratic counties.

Ohio - 4% reported.



Hillary Clinton 54.7%
Scott Walker 44.1%

The first counties that have reported votes are the most democratic and the most populated counties of the state. Cuyahoga County. 12% reported. President Obama won this county 69-30 in 2012. Now Clinton is winning it 66-32. An improvement for the Walker/Kasich ticket, as in Franklin County. 15% reported here and Clinton is winning this county 58-41. President Obama won this county by a bigger margin, 60-38.
Let's take a look at Hamilton County. 5% reported here. Obama won this county with 52.5% percent compared to Romney's 46%. Now, Clinton is winning this county by 250 votes, by 50-49. As you can see, it's a big improvement for Walker. As in Stark County. Obama won this county by a half-point in 2012. Now, the republican nominee is winning this county by more than 5 points. It's a big swing to the republicans. Now, the GOP ticket is favored to win in Ohio. There are still a lot of votes to be counted. We don't know if by only one point as the exit poll reported or if more than one point, but looks like this state will go Republican tonight after 12 years.

North Carolina. Scott Walker is leading here. Only 2% of the votes is counted right now, but we have 2 important counties that have reported.

North Carolina - 2% reported.



Scott Walker 51.5%
Hillary Clinton 47.3%

Wake County. The most populated in the state. This county was won 55-43 by President Obama in 2012. Right now, with 5% reported, Hillary Clinton is winning this county 54-44. So Walker is doing better than Romney in this county.
We can see the same trend in Franklin County. Romney won this county 51-47. Now, with 10% reported here, Walker is winning this county with the same margin. So, looks like Governor Walker is doing the same of Romney or slightly better.

Now, let's take a look at the states that closed their polls at 7 PM. In Virginia, Clinton is recovering. With 12% reported, she is down by 11 points. At poll closing, she was behind Walker by 16 points.

Virginia - 12% reported.



Scott Walker 55.1%
Hillary Clinton 43.8%

Fairfax County, the most populated county of the state, and a democratic strenghold, has started to report votes now. With 2% of the votes in, Clinton is leading 60-38, that is slight better than the Obama performance in 2012. So, good news for Hillary Clinton in Virginia.
We can take a look at the swing counties. Montgomery County. Romney won this county by around 100 votes four years ago. Now, with 34% reported here, Clinton is winning this county by 1 point.
Chesapeake City. President Obama won this city by 1 point. Now, Clinton is winning the county by the same margin.
Loudoun County. The President won this county 52-47 against Mitt Romney. Hillary Clinton is winning this county 51-47 against Walker, with 5% reported.
So, as you can see, Clinton is running slightly better than Obama 2012 in Virginia.

Finally, let's take a look at the state of Georgia. 12% reported and, as expected, Clinton is recovering here. Atlanta and other democratic counties started to report their votes.

Georgia - 12% reported.



Scott Walker 57.6%
Hillary Clinton 41.2%

Fulton County, the county that has a portion of Atlanta. President Obama won this county 64-34 four years go. Now, with only 2% reported, Hillary Clinton is winning this county 65-34, that is a slight improvement.
Finally, McIntosh County, in Southern Georgia. Romney won this county 54-45, that was close to the state result. Now, Governor Walker is winning this county by a 53-46 margin. So, as you can see, this is an improvement for Hillary Clinton. As of now, this improvement is not enough to make this state very competitive, but Clinton will recover in this state, as Atlanta has a lot of votes to report. Back to you, Wolf."
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jaichind
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« Reply #126 on: July 02, 2015, 06:04:07 PM »

VA results not that bad for Walker.  In 2012 Obama won by 3.9% and last known RCP average for VA has Clinton by 3.9%.  It seems Clinton is slightly over-performing Obama in 2012.  So Clinton is beating RCP by a very small margin so Walker is beating exit polls.  There is plenty of room for Walker to win FL and WI given last known RCP.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #127 on: July 03, 2015, 05:17:43 AM »

How do you edit the maps in the Atlas TL using Paint?!?
I do a screen of a county map (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html), then I change the colors with Paint.
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SATW
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« Reply #128 on: July 03, 2015, 09:00:14 PM »

Oooh, those early OH results look bad for Walker. Cant wait til the next update
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #129 on: July 04, 2015, 06:57:34 AM »

Blitzer: "There are 2 important states for Senate control that closed their polls at 7.30 PM. Dana Bash, do we have any result?"

Bash: "Yes Wolf. Two interesting Senate race, but we are not able to project a winner in the state of North Carolina, where incumbent republican Senator Richard Burr is challenged by former U.S. Senator Kay Hagan, that lost his seat in the republican wave of 2014 to Senator Thom Tillis. We have not enough informations to project a winner in this race, but according to our exit poll Burr is favored to win re-election tonight.

North Carolina - 2% reported.
* Richard Burr 50.5%
Kay Hagan 46%

Also we can't make a projection in the crucial state of Ohio. Republican Senator Rob Portman is challenged by the former Governor, the democrat Ted Strickland. It's going to be a close race and our exit poll confirms this. It's going to be a very close race, to cover during the night.

Ohio - 3% reported.
Ted Strickland 54.6%
* Rob Portman 44.5%

This is the Senate map. To be in the majority, the Democrats need to retain all their seats and gain 4 seats if Hillary Clinton will be elected President, as Tim Kaine would break the tie in favor of Democrats or to gain 5 seats if Scott Walker will win the presidency. No net change as of now.



Democrats 37
Republicans 33
No Projection 3

Back to you, Wolf."

Blitzer: "Thank you Dana. Jake Tapper has a news for us about a gubernatorial race"

Tapper: "Yes Wolf. We can project that republican U.S. Representative David McKinley will be the next Governor of West Virginia. He defeated the democratic candidate Booth Goodwin. This is a republican pick-up, because incumbent democratic Governor Earl Ray Tomblin is term-limited this year. A republican pick-up in West Virginia.



✔ (+) David McKinley 58.3%
Booth Goodwin 40.3%

Back to you, Wolf."

Blitzer: "Thank you Jake. Now, let's go to the Clinton Headquarters in New York City with our correspondent Jessica Yellin. Jessica, what are the early reactions to our exit poll numbers?"

Yellin: "The crowd is excited here. According to our exit poll, Clinton is competitive in Georgia and expecially is losing Ohio by only one point and this let a lot of democrats here at thinking that this election will end with a Clinton victory. According to Clinton strategists, if these exit polls are right, Hillary will win in Florida, in Iowa and Wisconsin. They are very excited. Back to you, Wolf."

Blitzer: "Thank you Jessica. Now, let's go to the Walker Headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin with Erin Burnett. Erin, what are the reactions?"

Burnett: "Walker strategists are still confident. The exit polls look bad for Scott Walker, but they are sure that the Governor will win in Ohio by more than one point, maybe by 3 points. Also they are confident about Georgia, North Carolina. They admit that it's going to be a close race, but according to their internal polls, Walker is going to win."
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Matty
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« Reply #130 on: July 13, 2015, 01:08:16 AM »

Hopefully this TL continues!
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DKrol
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« Reply #131 on: July 13, 2015, 01:12:59 PM »

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Senator Cris
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« Reply #132 on: July 16, 2015, 10:48:12 AM »

Update coming tomorrow Smiley
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #133 on: July 17, 2015, 08:12:16 AM »

Blitzer: "It's now 8 PM and we can make some projections.


Alright, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win the state of Illinois and its 20 electoral votes. Illinois is the home-state of President Obama and it will be won by Hillary Clinton with a minor margin than 2012, but still won by the democratic nominee.



✔ Hillary Clinton 54.9%
Scott Walker 43.1%

New Jersey we can project. We project that the Garden state will be in the Hillary Clinton's column tonight. Not a great surprise here. New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes for Clinton.



✔ Hillary Clinton 56.5%
Scott Walker 42.7%

No surprise in Massachusetts. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win the 11 electoral votes awarded from the state of Massachusetts. It's a traditional democratic state.



✔ Hillary Clinton 60.2%
Scott Walker 38.5%

No surprise in Tennessee. A republican stronghold. Governor Scott Walker will win the state of Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes. Not a real surprise.



✔ Scott Walker 60.5%
Hillary Clinton 38.7%

And now we move to Maryland, another democratic states. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will win the Maryland's 10 electoral votes.



✔ Hillary Clinton 59.9%
Scott Walker 37.9%

We can project another state for Scott Walker. We are projecting that the Wisconsin Governor, when all the votes will be counted, will win the state of Alabama and its 9 electoral votes.



✔ Scott Walker 62.7%
Hillary Clinton 37.1%

Another solid republican state for Scott Walker. It's Oklahoma. Oklahoma's 7 electoral votes will be won by the republican nominee by a very big margin. Not a surprise here.



✔ Scott Walker 66.5%
Hillary Clinton 33.5%

No surprise in the state of Mississippi. We can project that the republican nominee will win this state and its 6 electoral votes. Mississippi goes for Walker.



✔ Scott Walker 59.8%
Hillary Clinton 40.1%

Let's go to New England again. The state of Connecticut and its 7 electoral votes will be won by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Not a huge surprise in Connecticut.



✔ Hillary Clinton 56.7%
Scott Walker 42.5%

Delaware we can project. The home state of the Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, will go to the democrats. Hillary Clinton will win the 3 electoral votes awarded from the state of Delaware.



✔ Hillary Clinton 56.2%
Scott Walker 42.4%

Maine splits electoral votes. 2 electoral votes are allocated to the statewide winner and 2 electoral votes are allocated to the winners in the 2 congressional districts of the state. We can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the 2 statewide votes and the electoral vote from the 1st congressional district of Maine. We are not able to project a winner in the 2nd congressional district at this hour. ¾ for the democrats.



✔ Hillary Clinton 55.6%
Scott Walker 43.7%

Another democratic state that we can now project is Rhode Island. Rhode Island and its 4 electoral votes will go to the democratic nominee tonight.



✔ Hillary Clinton 61.9%
Scott Walker 36.3%

And finally, we can project the most democratic territory in the county, the District of Columbia, for Hillary Clinton. The former Secretary will win 3 electoral votes of Washington, DC.



✔ Hillary Clinton 90.1%
Scott Walker 9.1%

We are not able to project a winner in the following states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Hampshire and in the 2nd congressional district of Maine.
Let's take a look at the electoral map. Right now, Hillary Clinton has a lead in the electoral college, but it's still too early.



Hillary Clinton 78 (47.4% of popular vote)
Scott Walker 66 (51.7%)
No Projection 126

We can take a look at our exit polls from the states that we have not projected. Remember, these are only exit polls.

Florida
Hillary Clinton 50%
Scott Walker 50%

Pennsylvania
Hillary Clinton 51%
Scott Walker 48%

Missouri
Scott Walker 51%
Hillary Clinton 47%

New Hampshire
Hillary Clinton 51%
Scott Walker 48%

Now, let's go to the Magic Wall with John King."

King: "Yes Wolf. We can start with the state of Florida. Almost half of precints have reported, but the 3 most populated counties of the state, that are traditional democratic counties, are behind traditional republican counties in the scrutiny. These counties are Palm Beach County, Broward County and Miami-Dade County.

Florida - 46% reported.



Scott Walker 52.1%
Hillary Clinton 47.5%

Miami-Dade County. Only 23% reported, Clinton is leading 61-39. Four years ago, President Obama won this county 62-38. So, as you can see, there is a Walker improvement. But this improvement can be registered in another important county. Monroe County. This county is a lot less populated than Miami-Dade, yes, but Obama won this county 49.6-49.1 in 2012. This county was the closest county in the state of Florida and the closest to the statewide result, as Obama won 49.9-49 over Romney. Now, with 38% reported, Walker is leading 50-49. A good sign for the republicans, but Hillary will recover in the state, because the most democratic counties are behind. We'll see if it will be enough to win for Clinton. It won't be easy, because don't forget that there are some republican counties in Norhtwest Florida that haven't started reporting their votes.

Now, let's go to Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has a democratic counting bias, as the most democratic counties are reporting their votes first.

Pennsylvania - 5% reported.



Hillary Clinton 64.2%
Scott Walker 36.6%

Philadelphia County, the most democratic county in Pennsylvania. Obama won it 85-14 in 2012. Now, with 36% reported, Hillary Clinton is winning this county 83-15. A Walker improvement here, as in another democratic county. Allegheny County. 38% reported. Obama won this county 57-42. Hillary Clinton is now winning this county 55-44. An interesting county is Bucks County. The President has won this county 50-49. Now, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is winning this county 51-48. When votes from republican counties will come in, Walker will recover here. If these county numbers will be the same at the end of the voting counts, there will be a swing of 3-4 points toward the Republicans. A big swing, yes, but not enough for Governor Walker to win the state. We'll see. If Walker will do better than expected in the GOP counties, it will be a different story.

We have not numbers from the state of Missouri, but we can take a look at another state with a democratic counting bias, New Hampshire.

New Hampshire - 4% reported.



Hillary Clinton 62.6%
Scott Walker 36.3%

Democratic counties have started to report first. Rockingham County, Carroll County and Belknap County, the counties won by Mitt Romney in 2012, have not reported yet. But there is a good news for the Republicans. Hillsborough County. President Obama won this county 50-49 in 2012. Now, with 8% reported, Governor Walker is winning this county 51-49. An improvement, as expected, for the Republicans in New Hampshire. We have not enough informations in New Hampshire, so we'll see what happens during the night."
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #134 on: July 23, 2015, 05:36:43 PM »

Great TL so far. Beautifully detailed.
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Peeperkorn
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« Reply #135 on: July 25, 2015, 04:28:50 PM »

MOAR!
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jaichind
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« Reply #136 on: July 25, 2015, 07:46:06 PM »

I still think Walker pulls it out but it seems that odds are higher that we have a very close Clinton victory than a very close Walker victory.  Even if defeated Walker actually would have achieved what is best for GOP on the medium run which is to hold Clinton to a very narrow victory in with no coattails in 2016 with the likelihood that 2018 will be a mega GOP year followed by GOP control of redistricting in 2020.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #137 on: July 26, 2015, 09:11:55 AM »

Bump!!!
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #138 on: July 26, 2015, 02:27:39 PM »

Sorry guys, looks like I lost a bit of interest on it.
But in the next days I'll work on the various maps and I'll do updates. Promised. Smiley
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #139 on: August 23, 2015, 08:11:52 AM »

Still going? This is a great TL.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #140 on: September 04, 2015, 02:21:45 PM »

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