2016 and beyond...

[Senator Cris]

Democratic National Convention
July 25-28. Philadelphia, PA.

Monday, July 25.


Cory Booker speaking during the first day of convention.

- Jon Tester, Montana Senator.
- Al Franken, Minnesota Governor.
- Kate Brown, Washington Governor.
- Bill Nelson, Florida Senator.
- Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota Senator.
- Joe Donnelly, Indiana Senator.
- Andrew Cuomo, New York Governor.
- Bob Casey, Pennsylvania Senator.
- Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania Senate candidate.
- Tom Wolf, Pennsylvania Governor.
- Tammy Duckworth, Illinois Congresswoman.
- Chuck Schumer, New York Senator.
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Senator.
- Cory Booker, New Jersey Senator.

Tuesday, July 26.


Bill Clinton delivering keynote speech.

- Bernie Sanders, Vermont Senator.
- Steve Beshear, Former Kentucky Governor.
- Brian Schweitzer, Former Montana Governor.
- Terry McAuliffe, Virginia Governor.
- Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire Senator.
- Catherine Masto, Nevada Senate Candidate.
- Michael Bennet, Colorado Senator.
- Patrick Murphy, Florida Congressman.
- John Hickenlooper, Colorado Governor.
- Bill Clinton, Former President of the United States and husband of Hillary Clinton. (Keynote)

Wednesday, July 20.


Tim Kaine accepting VP nomination.

- Brian Schatz, Hawaii Senator.
- Joe Manchin, West Virginia Senator .
- Gary Peters, Michigan Senator.
- Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator .
- Martin O'Malley, former Maryland Governor.
- Mark Warner, Virginia Senator.
- Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire Governor.
- Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States.
- Barack Obama, President of the United States.
- Tim Kaine, Virginia Senator and Vice Presidential nominee.

Thursday, July 21.


Hillary Clinton accepting the democratic presidential nomination.

- Sherrod Brown, Ohio Senator .
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senator.
- Jim Webb, former Virginia Senator.
- Martin Heinrich, New Mexico Senator.
- Julian Castro, United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
- Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator.
- Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin Senator.
- Russ Feingold, former Wisconsin Senator.
- Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State and Presidential nominee.

[Senator Cris]

State of the Race (After DNC).

Hillary Clinton 266
Scott Walker 181
Toss-Up 91

RCP National Average - Pre DNC (Walker + 2.1%)
Scott Walker 48.1%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Undecided/Others 5.9%

RCP National Average - After DNC (Clinton + 3.3%)
Hillary Clinton 48.9%
Scott Walker 45.6%
Undecided/Others 5.5%

Rasmussen: Walker + 1%
Fox News: Tie
Quinnipiac: Clinton + 2%
SurveyUSA: Clinton + 2%
Gallup: Clinton + 3%
CNN: Clinton + 3%
Selzer: Clinton + 3%
PPP: Clinton + 4%
Marist: Clinton + 5%
Purple: Clinton + 7%
YouGov: Clinton + 8%

Florida - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 48%
Scott Walker 46.7%
Undecided/Others 5.3%

Ohio - RCP Average
Scott Walker 47.8%
Hillary Clinton 47%
Undecided/Others 5.2%

Wisconsin - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 47.7%
Scott Walker 47%
Undecided/Others 5.3%

Colorado - RCP Average
Scott Walker 48.3%
Hillary Clinton 46.8%
Undecided/Others 4.9%

North Carolina - RCP Average
Scott Walker 48.7%
Hillary Clinton 46.2%
Undecided/Others 5.1%

Nevada - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 49.2%
Scott Walker 45.1%
Undecided/Others 5.7%

Pennsylvania - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 49.2%
Scott Walker 44.9%
Undecided/Others 5.9%

New Hampshire - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 49.5%
Scott Walker 45.5%
Undecided/Others 5%

Virginia - RCP Average
Hillary Clinton 49.7%
Scott Walker 45.3%
Undecided/Others 5%

Iowa - RCP Average
Scott Walker 48.9%
Hillary Clinton 45.9%
Undecided/Others 5.2%

Arizona - RCP Average
Scott Walker 49.9%
Hillary Clinton 44.9%
Undecided/Others 5.2%

Georgia - RCP Average
Scott Walker 49.2%
Hillary Clinton 45.3%
Undecided/Others 5.5%

[Senator Cris]

Most interesting Senate Primaries.

Arizona

Incumbent Senator John McCain is running for reelection and despite his unpopularity between republican voters, he won the primary. He was challenged in the republican primary by conservatives Congressman Matt Salmon and State Senator Kelli Ward, that split the conservative vote, allowing to Senator McCain to win the primary with a plurality.

✔ John McCain (*) 48.7%
Matt Salmon 45.9%
Kelli Ward 5.4%

California

Democrat Kamala Harris, the Attorney General of California, topped the jungle primary hold on June 7 with over 45% of the vote and will face a republican, former U.S. Representative David Dreier in November. Dreier, a moderate republican, gained 33% of support and came ahead of Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, a Blue Dog democrat, that endorsed his fellow democrat Kamala Harris for the general election.

Kamala Harris 45.8%
David Dreier 32.9%
Loretta Sanchez 15.6%

Indiana

Senator Dan Coats is retiring and there was an interesting and exciting primary here. Eric Holcomb, Senator Coats' Chief of Staff and former Chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, faced Congressman Marlin Stutzman in the republican primary. Holcomb received the endorsements of Senator Coats and former Governor Mitch Daniels. Stutzman received endorsements from the Tea Party and other conservative politicians and groups. As predicted by the polls, it was a very close race and Holcomb won his primary by a margin of 1.100 votes out of 550.000 casted.

✔ Eric Holcomb 50.1%
Marlin Stutzman 49.9%

Maryland

Senator Barbara Mikulski is retiring and two democratic members of Congress battled for the democratic nomination. It was a close race, but at the end progressive Congresswoman Donna Edwards was defeated by Congressman Chris Van Hollen, a most moderate voice than Edwards. Edwards prevailed in Baltimore, in the counties of his congressional district and came close in the Eastern Shore counties, but Van Hollen performed strong in his home district and in the rural counties.

✔ Chris Van Hollen 51.5%
Donna Edwards 48.5%

[Senator Cris]

2016 Senate Map

Dark red = Democratic incumbent
Light red = Retiring Democrat
Dark blue = Republican incumbent
Light blue = Retiring Republican

Safe R Seats:

Alabama. Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby is running for re-election to a sixth term in office. Shelby easily won his primary against a tea partier and will be challenged in the general election by Democrat Bobby Bright. Bright is a former U.S. Representative, defeated in the 2010 election.

Alaska. Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski is running for re-election to a third term in the U.S. Senate. In 2010, he faced a challenge from the right with the candidacy of Joe Miller that won the primary but lost the general election to Senator Murkowski, that ran a write-in campaign. This time, Miller hadn't run and Murkowski easily won the primary. Former U.S. Senator Mark Begich skipped the race, opting for a run for U.S. House and the democrats nominated State Senate Minority Leader Johnny Ellis.

Arkansas. One-term incumbent John Boozman is running for re-election this year. Popular former Governor Mike Beebe didn't run and Bill Halter, former Lieutenant Governor and candidate in the Democratic primary against Blanche Lincoln in 2010, is the democratic challenger.

Idaho. Incumbent Senator Mike Crapo is running for re-election to a fourth term. Boise Attorney and 2014 Senate candidate Nels Mitchell is the democratic nominee for the seat.

Iowa. Popular incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is running for re-election to a seventh term in the United States Senate. On the democratic side, former Governor Tom Vilsack declined to run against Grassley. The democrats nominated State Senator Rob Hogg, that is trailing big in the polls.

Kansas. One-term incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is running for re-election. His democratic challenger is the 2014 Gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis, that lost by 4 points to Governor Sam Brownback. But this time Davis is going to lose by a lot more than 4 points.

Kentucky. After his whitdraw from the presidential race, thanks to the law of the Kentucky GOP that allowed him to be in both presidential and Senate primary ballot, one-term Senator Rand Paul is running for re-election at full time. This is a rematch of the 2010 election, considered that Paul will face again his former opponent Jack Conway, that lost the 2015 gubernatorial election to James Comer. Despite the early polls showed a not big Paul lead, now the Senator is leading the opponent by double digits.

Louisiana. Governor David Vitter, elected in November 2015, appointed his predecessor, former Governor Bobby Jindal, to his Senate seat. Incumbent Senator Jindal is running for a full term. Louisiana will hold a jungle primary in November and if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election will be held on December 3. But Jindal is challenged by only 2 candidates: an independent candidate that is expected to gain at least 2% and the Democratic State Representative Katrina Jackson, that is trailing big in the poll. So Bobby Jindal is expected to be re-elected in November, avoiding the runoff.

North Dakota. One-term Senator John Hoeven is the incumbent here and he is running for re-election in November. This time, Hoeven will face State Senator George B. Sinner. This race was considered a not competitive race from the start and it's still not competitive now.

Oklahoma. Incumbent Senator James Lankford won the special election in 2014 for the Joe Coburn's Senate seat and this year will run for a full term in the United States Senate. This is a rematch of the 2014 elections, as democrat Constance Johnson is challenging him again. Safe R.

South Carolina. Senator Tim Scott won the special election in 2014 for the Jim DeMint's seat and he is running for re-election to a full term. He is the first African-American Senator from the state of South Carolina and he is a very popular figure in the state and a rising star in the GOP. This year, he is running unopposed, so there isn't another seat that is more safe than this.

South Dakota. Incumbent Republican Senator John Thune is running for re-election to a third term in office. 2014 Senate nominee Rick Weiland is the democratic candidate for the seat.

Utah. The only fear of Mike Lee was a strong primary challenger, but it didn't happen. Both John Huntsman and Josh Romney declined to run against him in the primary and the most powerful democrat, former U.S. Representative Jim Mathenson, is not running. Democrats are running Ben McAdams, the former Mayor of Salt Lake County and former State Senator.

This is great! Just started reading! Love that McCain, Van Hollen AND Holcomb all won their primaries

Thanks!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Vulnerable seats:

PA: Sestak v Pat Toomey rematch

WI: Rob Johnson v Feingold rematch

IL: Duckworth v Kirk
 
NV: Masto-Cortez v generic republican


States that will give senate control:

Hassan v Ayotte

or
Strickland v Portman

Your spelling is despicable. It's Cortez-Masto, not Masto-Cortez. It's Ron Johnson, not Rob.

[The Other Castro]

Worry not Cris, OC is here to help in case you run into trouble with the competitive races

[Senator Cris]

This is really fantastic, Cris! Keep up the great work.

Thanks!

I'm glad to see all of you involved in my TL!

[Senator Cris]

Safe D Seats:

California. Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer is retiring. The open primary was held in June and the candidates for the general election in November will be the Attorney General Kamala Harris for the democrats and former U.S. Representative David Dreier for the republicans. Harris got the endorsement of Loretta Sanchez, a blue-dog democrat and candidate in the primary, and is leading Dreier in the polls. Despite Dreier is a moderate republican, he is still trailing Harris by double digits in the polls.

Connecticut. One-term Senator Richard Blumenthal is running for re-election to a second term and this time will face Tom Foley, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and in 2014. Foley lost twice to Governor Malloy and looks like he'll lose again this year, but by a bigger margin than 2010 and 2014.

Hawaii. After a contested primary in 2014, Senator Brian Schatz won the special election and now he is running for a full term in the United States Senate. This is another rematch. The democratic Senator will be challenged by 2014 republican senate nominee Cam Cavasso and all the polls and predictions say that he'll lose big again.

Maryland. Senator Barbara Mikulski is not seeking re-election and Congressman Chris Van Hollen defeated Congresswoman Donna Edwards for the democratic nomination and will face former republican Governor Bob Ehrlich in the general election. The GOP's hopes of a competitive races are shaded. Van Hollen is the clear favorite of the race.

New York. Incumbent three-term Senator Chuck Schumer is running for re-election. Schumer is indicated as the absolute favorite to become the next Democratic leader in the United States Senate. He is facing 2010 gubernatorial nominee, the republican Rob Astorino.

Oregon. Three-term Senator Ron Wyden is running for re-election this year and will be challenged by the republican Dennis Richardson, the 2014 gubernatorial nominee.

Vermont. Seven-term Senator Pat Leahy is running for re-election basically unopposed, as Republicans decided to put their forces on the gubernatorial race.

Washington. Incumbent Senator Patty Murray is running for a fifth term in the United States Senate. Republicans are running State Representative and 2012 Senate nominee Michael Baumgartner.

[Senator Cris]

I was very busy this week.
Sorry

I'll have an update at the start of the next week.

[Senator Cris]

I'm baaaaaaack!

Likely R Seats:

Georgia. Incumbent Senator Johnny Isakson is running for re-election to a third term in office. He is facing the democrat Jason Carter. Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, is the 2014 gubernatorial nominee and State Senator. Isakson is favored in the polls, in which he is leading by double digits. The only things that can help Carter are a scandal or a very good environment for Democrats.

Indiana. Incumbent Senator Dan Coats is retiring again after one term. After a very contested primary that was decided by little more than 1000 votes, former Indiana GOP Chairman and Dan Coats's Chief of Staff Eric Holcomb is the republican candidate. He'll face former Congressman Baron Hill. Early polls showed a slight Holcomb lead, but now he is capturing the support of very conservatives voters after a divisive primary and is leading the democratic nominee by a securing margin.

Missouri. Republican Senator Roy Blunt is running for a second term in the United States Senate. This time, he'll be challenged by Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. At the start, it had the potential of being a competitive race, but at least for now Blunt is holding an high single digits or slight double digits lead in the polls. To make it competitive, Democrats need a very friendly environment in November.

[JonathanSwift]

Great timeline!

[Senator Cris]

Great timeline!

Thanks!

[Senator Cris]

Lean R Seats:

Arizona. Incumbent Senator John McCain is running for a sixth term in the United States Senate. McCain was challenged in the Republican primary by two more conservative opponents and the incumbent Senator has won the contest with a plurality. McCain's lead in the polls is increasing as he is capturing the most undecided Republican voters that voted against him in the primary, but a good national environment for the Democrats and a not so good McCain showing between his fellow republicans might lead the democrat Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012, to a very tight victory.

RCP Average: John McCain (*) 49.3% Richard Carmona 44% Undecided/Others 6.7%

Florida. One-term Senator Marco Rubio declined to run for President and decided to run for a second term in the United States Senate. He will be challenged in the general election by Congressman Patrick Murphy. Rubio has good approval ratings, but it's still Florida. After a small Murphymentum in the weeks following the Democratic National Convention, Rubio gained the lead and he is now up by about four points in the polls. Rubio is the favorite now, but Murphy is still optimistic and is still hoping on a strong performance in Florida of Hillary Clinton and for a strong presence at the polls of his fellow democrats.

RCP Average: Marco Rubio (*) 49% Patrick Murphy 45.1% Undecided/Others 5.9%

North Carolina. Republican Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election to a third term as Senator from North Carolina. His approval numbers are not great, as the favorability numbers of his opponent. The Democrats are running former U.S. Senator Kay Hagan, that lost to Senator Thom Tillis in the GOP wave of 2014. Senator Burr holds a 4-5 points lead in the most recent polls. Both candidates are unpopular and the libertarian candidate might get more than his percentage of 2014 (3.7%). Kay Hagan is still optimistic about her chances, hoping on a strong libertarian performance that could hurt Burr, a very good democratic environment and a strong turnout from Democrats, that looks not so enthusiastic about her nominee. Improbable but still possible.

RCP Average: Richard Burr (*) 48.2% Kay Hagan 43.7% Undecided/Others 8.1%

[Peeperkorn]

Great timeline.

[VPH]

Great timeline.

[Senator Cris]

Lean D Seats:

Colorado. Incumbent Senator Michael Bennet is running for a second term in the United States Senate. He will be challenged by the Republican Colorado Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, that is also the wife of Congressman Mike Coffman, that declined to run for the Bennet's seat. He is running for re-election in the House. Bennet is the clear favorite of the race. In 2014, a midterm election year, Senator Cory Gardner won by 2 points. Looks difficult for Cynthia Coffman to do the same this year with an high turnout than 2014, but she is still hoping for a very good republican environment or for an error of Bennet.

RCP Average: Michael Bennet (*) 49.1% Cynthia Coffman 44.7% Undecided/Others 6.2%

Illinois. One-term Republican incumbent Mark Kirk is running for re-election. He will be challenged in the general election by Democratic congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. Illinois is a democratic state ad Kirk won in a republican wave year, but despite this he is not all down. Both Senator Kirk and Congresswoman Duckworth are running good campaigns. Kirk is still trailing in the most recent polls, but despite this he is running a very strong campaign with the independents that are its special target. The incumbent Senator is considered a moderate republican and he is running his campaign on this and on his foreign policy record. As of today, the democrats are favored here, but Kirk holds some hopes.

RCP Average: Tammy Duckworth 48.8% Mark Kirk (*) 45.5% Undecided/Others 5.7%

Great timeline.

Great timeline.

Thank you!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

One nitpick - you listed Carmona as Bennet's opponent instead of Coffman.

Also, you skipped over the Likely D seats.

[Senator Cris]

One nitpick - you listed Carmona as Bennet's opponent instead of Coffman.

Also, you skipped over the Likely D seats.

Edited

There aren't Likely D seats.

[Senator Cris]

Senate Map - September 2016

Republicans 49
Democrats 46
Toss-Up 5

Without Toss-Up Seats:

Republicans 50
Democrats 49
Exact tie 1

Toss-Up Seats:

Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid, the Minority Leader of the United States Senate, is retiring after five term in Washington. The democratic nominee for the seat is former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. On the republican side, Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchinson gained the nomination. Masto has a very slight lead in the polls, but both candidates looks capable of victory. This is going to be a very close race and looks like that the national environment will be fundamental for who will win.

RCP Average: Catherine Cortez Masto 47.6% Mark Hutchinson 46.9% Undecided/Others 5.5%

New Hampshire. Another very close race in the state of New Hampshire, where one-term incumbent republican Kelly Ayotte is running for re-election. She is challenged by New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan. This has been a close race from the beginning and both candidates are relatively popular, with Governor Hassan that has an high approval rating than Ayotte. Kelly Ayotte is the incumbent, but 2016 is a presidential year. This means an high turnout than 2010, but both candidates, that are running great campaigns, are capable to win in a race that is expected to be the most close in the recent years.

RCP Average: Kelly Ayotte (*) 47.1% Maggie Hassan 47.1% Undecided/Others 5.8%

Ohio. Incumbent Senator Rob Portman is running for a second term in the United States Senate and this time he will challenged by the democrat Ted Strickland, that is the former Governor of Ohio. Senator Portman has a good approval rating, but 2016 is a presidential year. The Portman's campaign is connecting Strickland with his (negative for the Republicans) record as Governor. Strickland is slightly behind Portman in the most recent polls, but he is still capable of pulling off a victory, especially with a strong turnout and, why not, a slightly more friendly environment for Clinton.

RCP Average: Rob Portman (*) 48.1% Ted Strickland 46.3% Undecided/Others 5.6%

Pennsylvania. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey is running for a second term. This is a rematch of the 2010 Senate race. Toomey will be challenged again by Democrat Joe Sestak. Senator Toomey has a positive approval rating but, despite at the beginning Sestak was considered a bad candidate, he is in a very close race with the democratic nominee. Others factors that helps Sestak here are the fact that this is a presidential year and a very strong GOTV machine. According to the average of polls, Toomey and Sestak are basically tied and the national environment will be fundamental.

RCP Average: Joe Sestak 47% Pat Toomey (*) 46.9%  Undecided/Others 6.1%

Wisconsin. The Republican Senator Ron Johnson, elected in 2010, is running for re-election in the United States Senate. This is another rematch. Russ Feingold, the former U.S. Senator from Wisconsin that lost his seat to Johnson six years ago, is running again for his hold seat. Johnson has not a good approval rating instead of Feingold that has a positive score. Feingold is the favorite here. This race is not considered Lean D because the lead of Feingold is not over 3 points, but he is still the favorite here, despite the fact that Scott Walker is at the top of the national ticket and despite the fact that Walker is competitive in his home state. Johnson is still hoping for a very strong performance of the Governor here. But now that Johnson is trailing by 3 points, the question is: without Walker as presidential nominee, how big would be the Feingold's lead?

RCP Average: Russ Feingold 48.5% Ron Johnson (*) 45.6%  Undecided/Others 5.9%

[Senator Cris]

Sorry for the delay.
An update with the gubernatorial elections will be up tomorrow, then I'll be a lot more active than now.

[/]

Great job!

[Mister Mets]

Looks good.

My one complaint is that it would be rare to have so many close calls. Ayotte/ Hassan are tied exactly. Sestak and Toomey are within 0.1% of each other. The Indiana Senate primary was decided by 0.2%.

[Senator Cris]

2016 Gubernatorial Map

Dark red = Democratic incumbent
Light red = Retiring/term-limited Democrat
Dark blue = Republican incumbent
Light blue = Retiring/term-limited Republican

Safe R States:

North Dakota. One-term incumbent republican Governor Jack Dalrymple is running for re-election. Dalrymple was elected in 2012 with over 60% of the vote. The democratic candidate is former U.S. Representative Earl Pomeroy. Pomeroy served for 18 years in Congress but despite this Dalrymple is the absolute favorite in this race.

Utah. Incumbent republican Governor Gary Herbert is running for re-election to a second term. He was elected to his first full term in 2012 with over 68% of the vote and this time he will be challenged by 2014 U.S. House candidate and former Attorney Doug Owens. Herbert is safe here.

Safe D States:

Delaware. Two-term incumbent Democratic Governor Jack Markell is term-limited and Attorney General Beau Biden, the son of Vice President Joe Biden, gained the Democratic Party's nomination for Governor. His opponent is the Republican State Representative Michael Ramone. Biden has a big leads in the polls and he is going to win with a large margin over Ramone.

Great job!

Thanks!

Looks good.

My one complaint is that it would be rare to have so many close calls. Ayotte/ Hassan are tied exactly. Sestak and Toomey are within 0.1% of each other. The Indiana Senate primary was decided by 0.2%.

Thank you! Well, the NH and PA's % are only polls and there are a lot of examples of very very close race (the most recent is the KY Gubernatorial GOP primary).

[Senator Cris]

Likely R States:

West Virginia. Incumbent democrat Governor Earl Ray Tomblin is term limited in 2016. U.S. Senator Joe Manchin announced that he will stay in the Senate and so Democrats nominated Booth Goodwin, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia since 2010. U.S. Representative David McKinley won the republican nomination and he is very likely to be the next Governor of West Virginia. He is a strong candidate and is keeping a stable lead in the polls.

Likely D States:

Oregon. Former Governor John Kitzhaber resigned in early 2015 and then democrat Kate Brown, Oregon's Secretary of State, was sworn in as Governor and she is running in the special election for the remainder of the term which Kitzhaber was elected to in 2014. The republican opponent will be 2014 Gubernatorial nominee Dennis Richardson. Republicans hoped to have a competitive race here, but at the moment Brown is leading Richardson by double digits in the polls.

Vermont. Incumbent Governor Peter Shumlin is running for re-election. Shumlin won the gubernatorial election in both 2010, 2012 and 2014, but in 2010 and 2014 he didn't receive a majority of votes, but only a plurality and so the Vermont General Election choosed Shumlin as the winner in both occasions. 2014 Gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne is running again as the republican candidate, but this time, in a presidential year, Shumlin is favored to win.

Washington. Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee is running for re-election to a second term in office. Under Washington's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appeared on the same ballot in August regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers advanced to the general election in November. The top two finishers were the democrat Governor Inslee and republican Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant. Despite early polls showed a competitive race here, Inslee is now leading Bryant by a security margin.

[Senator Cris]

Gubernatorial Map - September 2016

Republicans 31
Democrats 14
Toss-Up 5

Without Toss-Up States:

Republicans 34
Democrats 16

Toss-Up States:

Indiana. Incumbent Governor Mike Pence is running for re-election to a second term as Governor of Indiana and this race is a rematch of the 2012 race, with the democrat John Gregg running again against Pence. Governor Pence was under national reflectors and controversy because of the sign of the Religious Freedom Law. It's a very close race in Indiana and the candidates are in a statistical tie. The national environment might play a fundamental role here, as in the other toss-up races in the nation.

RCP Average: Mike Pence (*) 46.5% John Gregg 46.1% Undecided/Others 7.4%

Missouri. Two-term democratic incumbent Jax Nixon is term-limited and Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster gained the democratic nomination. He will be challenged by the republican Catherine Hanaway, that is the former Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives. Hanaway is holding a lead here, but despite this the Koster's campaign is still confident about their chances of victory, thanks to the national environment and a strong GOTV operation.

RCP Average: Catherine Hanaway 47.5% Chris Koster 45.7% Undecided/Others 6.8%

Montana. The closest gubernatorial race in the country, at least for now, is in Montana. The democratic incumbent Governor Steve Bullock is running for re-election to a second term. He was firstly elected in 2010 in a very close race and looks like it will be another close race, this time with the republican Congressman Ryan Zinke, that decided to leave the U.S. House after only a term.  Bullock and Zinke are in a statistical tie and this confirm that the race is literally anyone's game.

RCP Average: Steve Bullock (*) 46.6% Ryan Zinke 46.5% Undecided/Others 6.9%

New Hampshire. An open gubernatorial seat in New Hampshire, where incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan is challenging republican Senator Kelly Ayotte in a Senate race that might be the closest of the country. State Representative Jackie Cilley has won the democratic nomination and will be faced by republican Executive Councilor Chris Sununu, that is the son of former Governor John H. Sununu and the brother of former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu. Cilley is holding a small but significant lead in the average of polls and republicans are still hoping for a better environment in November.

RCP Average: Jackie Cilley 47.5% Chris Sununu 45.3%  Undecided/Others 7.2%

North Carolina. Incumbent republican Governor Pat McCrory is running for re-election to a second term and this time he will be challenged by North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper, that gained the democratic nomination. After a stable lead in the spring's polls, Cooper is trailing McCrory in most of the polls, but by just a small margin. The democrats are sure that Cooper is on the good track to win, especially if Hillary Clinton will win this state or will make it very competitive at the presidential level.

RCP Average: Pat McCrory (*) 47.8% Roy Cooper 46.2% Undecided/Others 6%