Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?
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  Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?
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Author Topic: Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?  (Read 4413 times)
nclib
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« on: January 15, 2015, 11:01:14 PM »
« edited: January 15, 2015, 11:09:51 PM by nclib »

I can picture Reagan/Mondale and Kerry/McCain, and even Dukakis/Bush. But which is the least likely (counting major parties in consecutive elections)?

I'd say Goldwater/Humphrey. Almost all the Democratic swing was caused by Wallace. Were there even any counties where Humphrey did better than LBJ?
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Intell
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2015, 12:58:38 AM »

Hillary Clinton was a Goldwater Supporter/ Humphrey Voter.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2015, 01:57:13 AM »

I wonder what type of person would be a Nixon/McGovern voter?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2015, 02:02:11 AM »

Ford/Carter? 
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Intell
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2015, 02:05:21 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2015, 07:10:06 AM by Intell »

I wonder what type of person would be a Nixon/McGovern voter?

Anti- War people, that were dis-satisfied with the Johnson Administration actions on the Vietnam War.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2015, 02:07:40 AM »


George McGovern was a Ford '76/Carter '80 voter, and really isn't all that implausible. Ford was after all a moderate Republican while Reagan came from the far-right of the Republican Party.
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2015, 04:25:13 AM »

I wonder what type of person would be a Nixon/McGovern voter?

Anti- War people,  that were dis-satisfied with the Johnson Administration actions  on the Vietnam War.

Hunter S Thompson was a Nixon/McGovern voter.
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2015, 04:26:39 AM »

I'd concur that Goldwater/Humphrey is the least likely outside of someone who changed all their politics.
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2015, 04:42:31 PM »

Wallace/McGovern seems least likely.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2015, 04:53:36 PM »

Wallace/McGovern seems least likely.

Eh well Wallace was arguably the most anti-war (or perhaps rather, least pro-war) of the 3 candidates with his pledge to withdraw the troops from Vietnam if the war wasn't won within 90 days of taking office. Maybe one-issue voters who wanted us out of Vietnam and were willing to overlook the other views of a candidate, no matter how abhorrent, went Wallace-McGovern.

Maybe repentant racists?

People who voted for Wallace genuinely solely for his populist economic policies and then voted for the Prairie Populist McGovern?

Obviously there couldn't be too many of them since Wallace won many counties across the South, some by massive margins, but failed to win a single county outside the south, while Nixon '72 DOMINATED the South.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2015, 10:52:48 PM »

Wallace/McGovern seems least likely.

There were a lot of Southerners who couldn't bring themselves to voting for a Republican.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2015, 10:01:22 AM »

Agree with Goldwater/Humphrey even if there is a very famous one (Hillary Clinton). As someone else said, it would have to be someone who changed their political affiliation. Looking at the home states doesn't help...Humphrey did way worse in Arizona and Minnesota than LBJ did.

For Nixon '68/McGovern '72, people living in South Dakota is your best bet. I don't know about anti-war people...most voted (if reluctantly) for Humphrey in '68. Maybe someone who originally supported the war but turned against it, but like Goldwater/Humphrey, that's just going into the obvious "people who changed their politics" answer.

Here's one that hasn't been mentioned....McGovern '72/Ford '76. Secular voters? People who really dislike southerners? Looking at home states doesn't help...Ford did worse in SD and MI than Nixon.

I mentioned Dole '96/Gore '00 voters in another thread. What do you think...veterans maybe? I know both candidates won the Asian-American vote, but I think that may have been due to different subgroups being the majority in each case.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2015, 10:45:10 AM »

Wallace/McGovern seems least likely.

There was a handful of white, rural counties in Tennessee that voted that way.

I say Goldwater/Humphrey was least likely.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2015, 10:52:21 AM »

Here's one that hasn't been mentioned....McGovern '72/Ford '76. Secular voters? People who really dislike southerners? Looking at home states doesn't help...Ford did worse in SD and MI than Nixon.

McGovern himself voted for Ford.  Counties that voted McGovern/Ford included Washtenaw, MI (Ann Arbor); Clay, SD (Vermillion); and Pitkin, CO (Aspen).  Also, Ford came closer to winning San Francisco than Nixon in 1972.

Yes, these voters were rare, but there was a handful.
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2015, 06:26:11 PM »

Wallace/McGovern would basically be a racist southern hippie.
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2015, 06:50:55 PM »

There were some Goldwater counties that voted Humphrey in states like AL and MS.
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OpinionatedGuy
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« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2015, 07:14:31 PM »

There were some Goldwater counties that voted Humphrey in states like AL and MS.

Blacks.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2015, 07:47:56 PM »

Hillary Clinton was only 17 in 1964 and hence couldn't vote for Goldwater (though she did campaign for him).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2015, 07:53:33 PM »

I agree on Goldwater/Humphrey. The only people who voted for Goldwater were southern racists and conservatives (who would most likely go to Wallace or Nixon in '68) or conservative people in the plains/mountain west who always vote Republican (who would definitely go Nixon '68).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2015, 10:37:35 PM »

Post 1960

Dole/Gore
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nclib
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« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2015, 11:23:45 PM »

Only 2 counties went Dole/Gore (this must be the lowest since at least 1960, does anything come close?), but such swings were almost entirely urban, so county flips don't represent the truth. This could be a Northeastern moderate who found Bush too cowboyish/uneducated/unexperienced.
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nclib
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« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2015, 11:49:16 PM »

For the record, the smallest drops from Johnson to Humphrey were (not counting MS and AL):

(DC -3.68%)
MN -9.76%
SC -11.49%
MA -13.18%
ME -13.50%
SD -13.65%
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2015, 01:06:33 AM »

Mondale/Bush Sr is also unlikely
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2015, 01:48:43 AM »

Only 2 counties went Dole/Gore (this must be the lowest since at least 1960, does anything come close?), but such swings were almost entirely urban, so county flips don't represent the truth. This could be a Northeastern moderate who found Bush too cowboyish/uneducated/unexperienced.

My Grandfather was a Dole/Gore voter. Gore improved on Clinton's performance in Fairfield County, CT though so did Bush over Dole, but only slightly due to Perot not being in at all.
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windjammer
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« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2015, 11:57:40 AM »

Wallace/McGovern seems least likely.

There was a handful of white, rural counties in Tennessee that voted that way.

I say Goldwater/Humphrey was least likely.

And please, nclib, check your PMs Tongue
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