Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Agree with Goldwater/Humphrey even if there is a very famous one (Hillary Clinton). As someone else said, it would have to be someone who changed their political affiliation. Looking at the home states doesn't help...Humphrey did way worse in Arizona and Minnesota than LBJ did.

For Nixon '68/McGovern '72, people living in South Dakota is your best bet. I don't know about anti-war people...most voted (if reluctantly) for Humphrey in '68. Maybe someone who originally supported the war but turned against it, but like Goldwater/Humphrey, that's just going into the obvious "people who changed their politics" answer.

Here's one that hasn't been mentioned....McGovern '72/Ford '76. Secular voters? People who really dislike southerners? Looking at home states doesn't help...Ford did worse in SD and MI than Nixon.

I mentioned Dole '96/Gore '00 voters in another thread. What do you think...veterans maybe? I know both candidates won the Asian-American vote, but I think that may have been due to different subgroups being the majority in each case.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I really think Mondale/Bush sr. is one of the least plausible.

There wouldn't be many, but I'm thinking southern Democrats here. Ones who are southerners first and Democrats second. They voted Mondale when the choice was between two candidates who had no connections to the South, but when Bush was on the ballot, they picked him.

As my evidence, I'd point to the fact that Tennessee swung ever so slightly to Bush and a couple other southern states swung only a little bit to Dukakis.

I'll reiterate that there wouldn't be too many, but more common than Goldwater/Humphrey.