Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible? (user search)

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Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible? (search mode)

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Topic: Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible? (Read 4450 times)

nclib
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	Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible? « on: January 15, 2015, 11:01:14 PM »
	« edited: January 15, 2015, 11:09:51 PM by nclib »

I can picture Reagan/Mondale and Kerry/McCain, and even Dukakis/Bush. But which is the least likely (counting major parties in consecutive elections)?

I'd say Goldwater/Humphrey. Almost all the Democratic swing was caused by Wallace. Were there even any counties where Humphrey did better than LBJ?

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nclib
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Re: Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?

« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2015, 11:23:45 PM »

Only 2 counties went Dole/Gore (this must be the lowest since at least 1960, does anything come close?), but such swings were almost entirely urban, so county flips don't represent the truth. This could be a Northeastern moderate who found Bush too cowboyish/uneducated/unexperienced.

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nclib
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Re: Which voter swing since 1960 is the LEAST plausible?

« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2015, 11:49:16 PM »

For the record, the smallest drops from Johnson to Humphrey were (not counting MS and AL):

(DC -3.68%)
MN -9.76%
SC -11.49%
MA -13.18%
ME -13.50%
SD -13.65%

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