Presidential Elections by Senate Class
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Author Topic: Presidential Elections by Senate Class  (Read 1577 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: January 15, 2015, 11:10:25 PM »
« edited: January 15, 2015, 11:12:15 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Senate Class 1

2012



Obama - 283
Romney - 112

2008



Obama - 299
McCain - 95

2004



Kerry - 217
Bush - 177

2000



Gore - 228
Bush - 168

1996:



Clinton - 313
Dole - 83

1992:



Clinton - 283
Bush - 113
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2015, 11:26:49 PM »
Senate Class 2

2012:



Romney - 165
Obama - 126

2008:



Obama - 147
McCain - 144

2004:



Bush - 194
Kerry - 97

2000:



Bush - 182
Gore - 107

1996:



Clinton - 150
Dole - 139

1992:



Clinton - 174
Bush - 115
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2015, 11:30:04 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2015, 11:31:58 PM by Skill and Chance »
Class 1 has leaned heavily D since the Clinton era.  Class 2 has gotten heavily R since G.W. Bush, but it could be interesting in 1992-96.  Class 3 will be the most interesting, I wonder if there is enough to counteract NY/CA/IL.

Edit: Surprised that Obama actually won Class 2 in 2008.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2015, 11:45:08 PM »
Senate Class 3

2012:



Obama - 249
Romney - 135

2008:



Obama - 278
McCain - 107

2004:



Bush - 201
Kerry - 184

2000:



Gore - 193
Bush - 192

1996:



Clinton - 289
Dole - 96

1992:



Clinton - 277
Bush - 108
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2015, 09:05:23 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2015, 10:04:24 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Sorry, I don't know why of what I could've done to lock this, but its back with popular vote numbers. These take a little longer to do, so I'll probably only do 2012 and 2008 for now.

Senate Class 1

2012:

Obama: 50,282,006 (52.5%)
Romney: 43,832,945 (45.8%)

2008:

Obama: 53,125,473 (54.3%)
McCain: 43,315,604 (44.3%)

Senate Class 2

2012:

Romney: 34,028,339 (50.3%)
Obama: 32,477,827 (48.0%)

2008:

Obama: 34,221,045 (50.1%)
McCain: 33,287,605 (48.7%)

Senate Class 3

2012:

Obama: 48,537,620 (51.5%)
Romney: 43,962,954 (46.7%)

2008:

Obama: 51,158,914 (53.4%)
McCain: 43,258,703 (45.2%)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2015, 09:56:30 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 17, 2015, 09:05:23 PM
Sorry, I don't know why of what I could've done to lock this, but its back with popular vote numbers. These take a little longer to do, so I'll probably only do 2012 and 2008 for now.

Senate Class 1

2012:

Obama: 50,282,006 (52.5%)
Romney: 43,832,945 (45.8%)

Senate Class 2

2012:

Romney: 34,028,339 (50.3%)
Obama: 32,477,827 (48.0%)

Senate Class 3

2012:

Obama: 48,537,620 (51.5%)
Romney: 43,962,954 (46.7%)

So Class 2 is really Republican while 1 and 3 now lean slightly Dem?
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2015, 10:05:43 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 17, 2015, 09:56:30 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 17, 2015, 09:05:23 PM
Sorry, I don't know why of what I could've done to lock this, but its back with popular vote numbers. These take a little longer to do, so I'll probably only do 2012 and 2008 for now.

Senate Class 1

2012:

Obama: 50,282,006 (52.5%)
Romney: 43,832,945 (45.8%)

Senate Class 2

2012:

Romney: 34,028,339 (50.3%)
Obama: 32,477,827 (48.0%)

Senate Class 3

2012:

Obama: 48,537,620 (51.5%)
Romney: 43,962,954 (46.7%)

So Class 2 is really Republican while 1 and 3 now lean slightly Dem?

Class 1 is about 3 points to the left, Class 2 is about 6 points to the right, and Class 3 is about 1 point to the left. Keep in mind class 2 is significantly smaller than 1 and 3.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2015, 01:46:45 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 17, 2015, 10:05:43 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 17, 2015, 09:56:30 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 17, 2015, 09:05:23 PM
Sorry, I don't know why of what I could've done to lock this, but its back with popular vote numbers. These take a little longer to do, so I'll probably only do 2012 and 2008 for now.

Senate Class 1

2012:

Obama: 50,282,006 (52.5%)
Romney: 43,832,945 (45.8%)

Senate Class 2

2012:

Romney: 34,028,339 (50.3%)
Obama: 32,477,827 (48.0%)

Senate Class 3

2012:

Obama: 48,537,620 (51.5%)
Romney: 43,962,954 (46.7%)

So Class 2 is really Republican while 1 and 3 now lean slightly Dem?

Class 1 is about 3 points to the left, Class 2 is about 6 points to the right, and Class 3 is about 1 point to the left. Keep in mind class 2 is significantly smaller than 1 and 3.

Putting CA and NY on the same schedule is quite odd.
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