GOP announces 12 debates
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Author Topic: GOP announces 12 debates  (Read 7854 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: January 16, 2015, 04:09:39 PM »

Today the GOP finally released the list of their 'sanctioned' debates for 2016. Here is the list...

1. Fox News, August 2015, Ohio
2. CNN, September 2015, California
3. CNBC, October 2015, Colorado
4. Fox Business, November 2015, Wisconsin
5. CNN, December 2015, Nevada
6. Fox News, January 2016, Iowa
7. ABC News, February 2016, New Hampshire
8. CBS News, February 2016, South Carolina
9. NBC/Telemundo, February 2016, Florida
10. Fox News, March 2016, location TBD
11. CNN, March 2016, location TBD
12. Conservative Media Debate, date TBD, locations TBD

It is noted that "negotiations to finalize the details are ongoing" and...
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via: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/rnc-2016-debate-schedule-114329.html#ixzz3P1KswKIc
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2015, 04:12:12 PM »

Why Wisconsin?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2015, 04:24:27 PM »

Nice, I can't wait! The debates in 2011 and 2012 were really essential primetime television.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2015, 05:59:33 PM »

Nice, I can't wait! The debates in 2011 and 2012 were really essential primetime television.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2015, 06:02:28 PM »

I thought they wanted less debates (not that I'm complaining)?
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2015, 06:07:26 PM »

i think they had 20 last time
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2015, 06:45:21 PM »

I thought they wanted less debates (not that I'm complaining)?

This is fewer than last time.  In the 2012 cycle, there were over 20 debates.

Also, the scheduling of the IA/NH/SC debates is going to get messy, since I don't believe those states are going to vote when the RNC would like them to.  Good chance that Iowa and New Hampshire will be voting in January, which means that the New Hampshire debate at least will have to be moved earlier.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2015, 06:50:48 PM »

They have cut the number of debates before IA in half and delayed the start until August (last time it was May).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2015, 07:21:41 PM »

It's also unclear that any of those last three debates will actually happen.  Last time, there were no debates after Super Tuesday.  By Super Tuesday, usually one candidate has enough of a delegate lead that he no longer wants to mess around debating the challengers who are way behind him.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2015, 10:09:44 PM »

When did the debates start in 2011?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2015, 10:13:50 PM »


Here's the list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_debates,_2012

The first one was in May, but only five candidates participated, and the frontrunner (Romney) didn't show up.  The first debate to include Romney and some of the others in the field was on June 13.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2015, 01:15:54 AM »

Can Indiana have one please?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2015, 01:25:06 AM »

I thought they wanted less debates (not that I'm complaining)?

This is fewer than last time.  In the 2012 cycle, there were over 20 debates.

Also, the scheduling of the IA/NH/SC debates is going to get messy, since I don't believe those states are going to vote when the RNC would like them to.  Good chance that Iowa and New Hampshire will be voting in January, which means that the New Hampshire debate at least will have to be moved earlier.


The RNC has ensured a february start to the season. It says in their new rules that any january-voting state will have no more than 9 delegates at the convention. 2012 had January contests because FL forced it - but in 2012, FL delegates were only cut in half from 100 to 50, this time it would be from 100 to 9. FL isn't going to repeat it's leapfrogging attempt of 2012. Granted, Iowa could vote in January without penalty because it's a caucus and doesn't actually elect national delegates on caucus night. But without FL trying to leapfrog, iowa has no reason to vote in january.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2015, 02:01:46 AM »

I thought they wanted less debates (not that I'm complaining)?

This is fewer than last time.  In the 2012 cycle, there were over 20 debates.

Also, the scheduling of the IA/NH/SC debates is going to get messy, since I don't believe those states are going to vote when the RNC would like them to.  Good chance that Iowa and New Hampshire will be voting in January, which means that the New Hampshire debate at least will have to be moved earlier.


The RNC has ensured a february start to the season. It says in their new rules that any january-voting state will have no more than 9 delegates at the convention. 2012 had January contests because FL forced it - but in 2012, FL delegates were only cut in half from 100 to 50, this time it would be from 100 to 9. FL isn't going to repeat it's leapfrogging attempt of 2012. Granted, Iowa could vote in January without penalty because it's a caucus and doesn't actually elect national delegates on caucus night. But without FL trying to leapfrog, iowa has no reason to vote in january.

You're partially right and partially wrong.  And I'm going to go all CARLHAYDEN in this post and number my quibbles with what you wrote "first", "second", "third".  Tongue

First, the RNC has in fact changed the caucus rules so that there will be no more nonbinding caucuses.  The Iowa caucuses will actually have a binding impact on delegate allocation this time.

Second, you're right that they've now instituted the "super penalty", knocking down non-compliant states to 9 delegates.  That means that there *probably* won't be interlopers in February, but you never know.  It certainly won't be Florida this time, but some smaller state might take the plunge and go in February, accepting the penalty that takes them to 9 delegates.  Not all state legislators nor state party officials necessarily care about delegates.  So yeah, unlikely but not impossible that some state other than IA/NH/NV/SC votes before March 1.

Third, even if the other 46 states all vote on March 1 or later, what are IA, NH, NV, and SC going to do?  South Carolina has historically not only insisted on being "first in the South", but has opted to create at least a one week buffer between it and the next Southern state(s) to vote.  2016's Super Tuesday is shaping up to be very Southern-heavy, with the two biggest delegate prizes of the day being Texas and Florida.  South Carolina is most likely not going to be happy voting on Feb. 27.  I see them scheduling their primary for Saturday, Feb. 20th.  The Nevada GOP is also not happy about how they were squeezed in 2012, and is looking to go one week earlier than SC this time, just as they originally intended to in 2012.  So that puts Nevada on Feb. 13th.  NH's primary law means that their latest date would be Tuesday, Feb. 2nd, since they need a Tuesday at least one week before the next contest, and that puts the likely date for Iowa at Monday, Jan. 25th.

So even if the other 46 states play nice, I don't see Iowa voting in February as all that likely.

And fourth, I don't think the RNC is going to be too bothered by that.  They'll be happy enough with a Jan. 25th start date, considering how badly the calendar was bungled in 2012.  Jan. 25th is good enough.

So, to conclude, no, I don't agree that "the RNC has ensured a February start to the season".  Tongue
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136or142
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2015, 02:18:58 AM »

Have they released the criteria to be included in the debates?  There are going to be a lot of candidates.  In 2012 11 ran and at least Buddy Roemer, Thad McCotter and I believe Gary Johnson were excluded from all of the debates.

This time as many as 25 could run.  They obviously can't all get in as there aren't enough staffers with presidential campaign experience to go around, but I'd bet that at least 15 will get in.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2015, 02:19:37 AM »

Wow, for this year it's just 5, one a month, and not until August. I guess they don't want us finding out too much about how crazy they all are.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2015, 02:28:44 AM »

Have they released the criteria to be included in the debates?  There are going to be a lot of candidates.  In 2012 11 ran and at least Buddy Roemer, Thad McCotter and I believe Gary Johnson were excluded from all of the debates.

Johnson was actually invited to (and participated in) two of the debates.  The 2008 cycle was another weird one, as I think Alan Keyes was invited to just one debate.

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I highly doubt it'll be 25, but 15 is possible.  Though don't be surprised if several people who we currently think are near-locks to run end up not running, or else drop out very quickly.  In the 2000 race, Kasich dropped out in the summer of 1999, and then several more did shortly after the Iowa straw poll.  Several candidates could drop out after the straw poll this time as well, even with no Bush 2000-esque frontrunner.  There just isn't enough media oxygen for all these candidates, and so there has to be some winnowing, one way or another.
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« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2015, 02:41:17 AM »

1.Yes, I wasn't 100% sure about Gary Johnson.  It must have been tough for Buddy Roemer, the top dog of a state for 8 years, to go from that to being considered so fringe that he wasn't even invited to the debates.

2.McCotter may have dropped out before the first debate. I forget.

3.I believe around 14 candidates ran in 2008 though some of them may have just formed exploratory committees and not actually entered.

4.There actually doesn't really need to be a winnowing. 

The reason it occurs is because if the convention isn't decided on the first ballot, it becomes a 'brokered convention.'  If the Democrats and Republicans were to adopt the Canadian system whereby the candidate with the lowest support at the convention is dropped from the next ballot, they would create a process wherein candidates would have an incentive to remain in the race until the convention because after dropping off the ballot they could call for their supporters to shift to a preferred candidate.  In this way, they would influence who wins the nomination.  It would also make for exciting television.


Candidates who still are unable to raise money would likely still drop out but many would stay in.  Here in Canada, most parties have moved to a 'one member, one vote' leadership process, but the Federal Liberal Party in 2006 had a delegated leadership convention.  Of the 11 candidates who entered 3 dropped out before the convention (and before the delegate selection meetings) but 8 candidates stayed in, even though only 4 had a realistic shot at winning.
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Intell
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« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2015, 04:43:25 AM »

This wil be nice TV.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2015, 12:03:48 PM »

Nice, I can't wait! The debates in 2011 and 2012 were really essential primetime television.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2015, 09:49:45 PM »

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/229971-priebus-gop-candidates-will-have-to-hit-thresholds-to

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OK, we've seen this before.  Polling thresholds for inclusion in the debates.  But are they actually going to commission polls that include all the candidate's names?  With a field of ~15 candidates, are there going to polls that include everyone's names, or will they continue to leave off folks like Fiorina?

Last time, Buddy Roemer, Thad McCotter, etc. were never included in the polls, and so couldn't reach 1% because their name wasn't mentioned.  Maybe they wouldn't have reached 1% anyway, but we'll never know.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2015, 08:38:43 AM »

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The Free North
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« Reply #22 on: January 21, 2015, 02:11:34 PM »

Nice, I can't wait! The debates in 2011 and 2012 were really essential primetime television.

At least when Michelle Bachmann was still around
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2015, 09:31:13 PM »

Jindal blasts the RNC's decision to take control of the debate process, and says he won't necessarily abide by the rules and limit his participation to "sanctioned" debates:

http://news.yahoo.com/bobby-jindal-won-t-abide-by-rnc-debate-limit-161930798.html

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« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2015, 06:15:54 AM »

Nice, I can't wait! The debates in 2011 and 2012 were really essential primetime television.
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