GOP announces 12 debates

[PresidentTRUMP]

Probably will end up being 9 debates, less than half than in 2012, last three i doubt will happen IMO.

[MATTROSE94]

When did the debates start in 2011?

Here's the list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_debates,_2012

The first one was in May, but only five candidates participated, and the frontrunner (Romney) didn't show up.  The first debate to include Romney and some of the others in the field was on June 13.

I seem to remember Herman Cain and Rick Santorum performing well in the first debate.

[Mr. Morden]

The September debate will be held on Sept. 16 at the Reagan Library in California, broadcast by CNN:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/02/hugh-hewitt-to-moderate-gop-debate-203019.html

As previously detailed, at least some of the questioners in these debates will be conservative media personalities, and it looks like one such questioner for that September debate will be Hugh Hewitt.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

I guess I missed this news at the time, but apparently it was announced last month that the first debate will be Saturday, Aug. 15th in Cleveland (same city that the convention will be held in next year):

http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-republican-primary-debate-schedule/

That's exactly one week after the Iowa Straw Poll.  So no debates before the Iowa Straw Poll this time.

[Ebsy]

These debates are going to be insane, aren't they?

[Mr. Morden]

Because Florida moved its primary date later, the big pre-Super Tuesday debate is now going to be held in Houston, TX:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/gops-super-tuesday-debate-moves-to-texas-206842.html?hp=l3_4

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[Torie]

Jindal's leverage here strikes me as just about nil.

[RogueBeaver]

First debate: Aug. 6 in Cleveland. Location: Q.

[Mr. Morden]

First debate: Aug. 6 in Cleveland. Location: Q.

Weird.  They previously announced that it would be August 15th.  I guess they want to have one debate before the Iowa Straw Poll (which is scheduled for August 8th).

Since this'll happen before the straw poll, that also means that, potentially, no one will have dropped out of the race yet.  So yes, we'll most likely have 15+ candidates clamoring to get into the debate.  How many will the RNC actually allow to participate?

[RogueBeaver]

RNC seems to have a settled on a cap of 12 participants.

[Likely Voter]

RNC seems to have a settled on a cap of 12 participants.

Interesting solution. I wonder if this is going to dissuade some like Gilmore and Ehrlich from jumping in. And for someone like Kasich it could push him to get in sooner to build up enough support to make the cut. It will be interesting to see if Fiorina makes the cut. They obviously want her in there but any criteria that includes her could easily exceed 12.

once the cut happens the remaining candidates might as well drop out. Just ask Gary Johnson how much attention you get as the odd man out.

[The Mikado]

Six before Iowa and six after? That's way too many for the post-Iowa side. 8-4 would make more sense.

[Mr. Morden]

Six before Iowa and six after? That's way too many for the post-Iowa side. 8-4 would make more sense.

After Iowa, you've got one in the week before NH, one in the week before SC, and one in the week before Super Tuesday.

There's a good chance the three post-Super Tuesday debates won't happen, as the race is often decided by then.  Or it's not yet decided, but one candidate is far enough ahead that he refuses to do any more debates, because what does he have to gain from doing more?  Romney stopped doing debates after Super Tuesday in 2012, even though he hadn't yet clinched the nomination.  And so the debates stopped, because you're not going to bother with a debate at that stage if you don't have the frontrunner.

So I don't think those last three debates will happen, but it makes sense for the RNC to put them on the schedule now, just in case.

[Likely Voter]

I am curious about debate 12 which they are now calling a grassroots debate but still date tbd. It may be that is a floater and could show up earlier. I am guessing that one would be all conservatives moderating and therefore no TV media sponsor but maybe span.

[Mr. Morden]

More details on the first two debates:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-election-2016-facebook-fox-news-partner-first-republican-primary-debate-1502272

Debate 1: Aug. 6th in Cleveland, broadcast on Fox News Channel, moderators to include Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace.  Facebook will be partnering with Fox to provide "data on top issues to be debated on by candidates".

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Debate 2: Sept. 16th at the Reagan Library in California, broadcast on CNN:

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Split it into two?  How will that work?  Use the more restrictive criteria for the first hour, and then invite more candidates to the stage for the second hour?

[Mr. Morden]

Based on the last paragraph of this story:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/fox-new-gop-debate-candidates-118152.html?hp=c1_3

it sounds like it's possible that Fox will discount internet polls and/or robo-dial polls.  Which means both YouGov and PPP might be out.  So we'd be left with Fox, CNN, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, etc.

[Bull Moose Base]

It'd be so great for CNN part 2 if the only people who failed to make the top 10 but did make the lower bar were Trump and Perry.

[bballrox4717]

By the time the first debate rolls around, almost all of the candidates will have declared, so the polls will probably show a clearer distinction of top tier candidates, middle tier candidates, and candidates that should rightly be ignored.

[BlueSwan]

Damn, only 5 debates in 2015? Well, it's gonna be essential viewing, that's for sure. Here's hoping that Trump, Cruz, Perry and Carson will make the cut. Although it's gonna be hard to compete with Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Ron Paul, etc. for pure entertainment value.

[Mr. Morden]

Damn, only 5 debates in 2015? Well, it's gonna be essential viewing, that's for sure. Here's hoping that Trump, Cruz, Perry and Carson will make the cut. Although it's gonna be hard to compete with Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Ron Paul, etc. for pure entertainment value.

Carson and Cruz at least should qualify, barring some kind of campaign collapse.  I don't know how they're going to deal with Trump.  Few of the pollsters include him.  But when they do include him, he polls at ~5% or so, which should be enough to qualify.

[Likely Voter]

Press releases
Here are the press releases with the criteria details on the FOX and CNN debates:
http://press.foxnews.com/2015/05/fox-news-and-facebook-partner-to-host-first-republican-presidential-primary-debate-of-2016-election/

http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2015/05/20/cnn-ronald-reagan-presidential-foundation-and-library-announce-groundbreaking-format-for-republican-presidential-primary-debate/

Of note:
- CNN lists the qualifying polls which are essentially all the live phone polls (so no YouGov, PPP, Rasmussen, Gravis, etc).
- Fox later clarified that in the event of a tie for 10th, both would be allowed (not clear how many decimal places (if any) they calculate the polls to determine a tie.
- CNN has detailed a tie-breaker rule
- FOX will give those who don't make the top 10 airtime (as opposed to CNN who give them a separate debate)
- CNN says that if only 14 or fewer candidates qualify, they may limit the main debate to 8 and move the remainder to the lower tier debate

Santorum not happy
Also, Sanotrum has attacked the FOX criteria as 'arbitrary'
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/rick-santorum-rips-fox-news-over-arbitrary-debates-rules-20150521

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[Mr. Morden]

Just thought of something on this: If Fox, like CNN, decides to only include national polls taken via telephone with live interviewers, then that might speed up the announcement schedules of a few of the candidates.

I'm thinking in particular of Kasich.  So far, he hasn't really shown much urgency towards making a decision.  We don't know when/if he's going to announce.  But now, he kind of needs to announce no later than about the first week of July.  That's because non-robo-polls only happen so often.  We get about one a week or so.  So if the debate's on Aug. 6th, then polls that count towards determining the participants will begin as early as the first week of July.  While undeclared candidates can be included in those polls, the announcement itself could produce at least a small bounce, as we've seen with some (but not all) of the candidates so far.

Kasich isn't in the top 10 in the polls as of yet, but he seems like someone who has the potential to get a bump above the 2% level to at least the 3 or 4% level (which is enough to be in the top 10 in the polls, at this point) if he actually runs.  He has enough of a niche as the "electable one" if people keep losing faith in Bush and the others.  At least some party elites will rally to his side, and he'll get at least some media attention for occupying that niche.  Not necessarily a lot, but enough to reach 4%?  Sure.  And that's enough to get in the debates.

I don't think, say, Perry or Santorum will necessarily get any bounce out of their announcements, because they don't stand out enough.  But Kasich might.  However, he needs to actually launch his candidacy by the first week of July, or it might be too late.