Biggest possible electoral college shift

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

What  is the maximum bomber of possible states that could switch hands in 2016 and what would bring it about?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Would most likely require one or more third-party candidates throwing monkey wrenches.

[Türkisblau]

I couldn't see anything major changing without some crises coming about.

[Free Bird]

I couldn't see anything major changing without some crises coming about.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Would most likely require one or more third-party candidates throwing monkey wrenches.

Maybe a scenario in which Huckabee or Santorum gets the GOP nomination and Gary Johnson seizes the opportunity to peel off the votes of western and business oriented conservatives. He does well enough to flip states like Wyoming and Montana to the Democrat just by acting as a spoiler.

[Intell]

Would most likely require one or more third-party candidates throwing monkey wrenches.

Maybe a scenario in which Huckabee or Santorum gets the GOP nomination and Gary Johnson seizes the opportunity to peel off the votes of western and business oriented conservatives. He does well enough to flip states like Wyoming and Montana to the Democrat just by acting as a spoiler.

Democrats won't win Wyoming. Barring a 45+ landslide win.

[Mister Mets]

The biggest possible electoral college shift would be a Republican gain. Republicans have a better chance of flipping Wisconsin (which means they'll probably flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado- a gain in 109 electoral votes) than Democrats have of flipping states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Montana.

In a regular two way election, if Republicans run the table of conceivably competitive seats, that'll be a gain of 161 electoral votes.

Bigger shifts are theoeretically possible but would likely require major scandals.

A winning indepdenent bid would be the biggest shift from 0 to 270+, but that seems very unlikely.

[Bojack Horseman]

I think the only changes in 2016 will be Florida and Colorado. CO is looking more like South Carolina right now. I mean, come on. Cory Gardner!?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think the only changes in 2016 will be Florida and Colorado. CO is looking more like South Carolina right now. I mean, come on. Cory Gardner!?

Udall deserved to lose.

[The Mikado]

The biggest possible electoral college shift would be a Republican gain. Republicans have a better chance of flipping Wisconsin (which means they'll probably flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado- a gain in 109 electoral votes) than Democrats have of flipping states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Montana.

In a regular two way election, if Republicans run the table of conceivably competitive seats, that'll be a gain of 161 electoral votes.

Bigger shifts are theoeretically possible but would likely require major scandals.

A winning indepdenent bid would be the biggest shift from 0 to 270+, but that seems very unlikely.

I'm not confident that even in the GOP landslide scenario the GOP carries New Jersey.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The big surprise is Hillary matching Obama's reelection bid in 2012, by winning the same electoral votes, which FL may be the tipping point race.

But, as far as the Democratic firewall of CO, NV, PA, NH, IA, and NM remains intact, with the Latino vote

[Devils30]

Hillary win with modest adjustment for demographics: North Carolina flips D

Hillary win with modest erosion of Midwestern working class: Ohio, Iowa flip R, Florida possibly with Jeb.

Hillary wins, Rs nominate an unelectable candidate: Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Montana
 flip D

[bobloblaw]

The big surprise is Hillary matching Obama's reelection bid in 2012, by winning the same electoral votes, which FL may be the tipping point race.

But, as far as the Democratic firewall of CO, NV, PA, NH, IA, and NM remains intact, with the Latino vote

Hillary polls very poorly in CO.

For the Dems if all continues to go well the best would be Obama 2012 plus NC, GA and AZ (slight outside chance at AR and MO but the flop of Pryor should result in Hillary losing AR).
For the GOP if the Dem preside over a recession in 2016, it would be Bush 2004 minus NM plus WI, MI, PA and NH.

[Württemberger]

I'm not confident that even in the GOP landslide scenario the GOP carries New Jersey.
[/quote]

It is more likely that Illinois goes for a Republican but NJ stays Democratic in a wave election.

[hopper]

I think the only changes in 2016 will be Florida and Colorado. CO is looking more like South Carolina right now. I mean, come on. Cory Gardner!?

Yeah I know I didn't think Gardner at first when he first announced his candidacy was electable for US Senate but he ran a great campaign and Udall ran a bad one.

[hopper]

I'm not confident that even in the GOP landslide scenario the GOP carries New Jersey.

It is more likely that Illinois goes for a Republican but NJ stays Democratic in a wave election.
[/quote]I don't see NJ or IL going R in an R wave election. Most of the population growth in NJ is Latino in the Hudson County suburbs which are urbanized and are very D. The Hudson County Suburbs run along the Hudson River which separates NY and NJ. Another population growth spot is the Eastern Half of Bergen County which has a robust Asian Population especially by the George Washington Bridge area which connects NY and NJ. The Eastern Half of Bergen County is pretty Dem with the growing Asian Population.

Illinois-Most of the population growth this decade is in Cook County which as we all know is very solid D.

[bobloblaw]

I'm not confident that even in the GOP landslide scenario the GOP carries New Jersey.

It is more likely that Illinois goes for a Republican but NJ stays Democratic in a wave election.

I don't see NJ or IL going R in an R wave election. Most of the population growth in NJ is Latino in the Hudson County suburbs which are urbanized and are very D. The Hudson County Suburbs run along the Hudson River which separates NY and NJ. Another population growth spot is the Eastern Half of Bergen County which has a robust Asian Population especially by the George Washington Bridge area which connects NY and NJ. The Eastern Half of Bergen County is pretty Dem with the growing Asian Population.

Illinois-Most of the population growth this decade is in Cook County which as we all know is very solid D.
[/quote]

Well Bush did better in NJ in 2004 than in IL. But IL is 67% white and NJ is 61% white. so who knows?

[Lincoln Republican]

Republican     281
Democratic    257

Republicans have done a very good job while in control of the Senate and the House.
Voters believe it is time for a new administration after two terms of a Democrat in the Presidency.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Republicans elect Mayor Bloomberg for some inexplicable reason. That would really unsettle the map in various ways!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These are the states the Democrat has won in every election since 1992, the remainder is a mix of the GOP bloc and states they've won at least once in that same period. Putting aside the demographic shift which places NV and NM more or less in the Dem column (but NV is borderline)... I see this, short of total economic collapse or a massive, massive scandal (note to the GOP: a REAL scandal that appears in places other than RW blogs and Fox News)... this is the Democrat's floor.

[Mister Mets]

The biggest possible electoral college shift would be a Republican gain. Republicans have a better chance of flipping Wisconsin (which means they'll probably flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado- a gain in 109 electoral votes) than Democrats have of flipping states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Montana.

In a regular two way election, if Republicans run the table of conceivably competitive seats, that'll be a gain of 161 electoral votes.

Bigger shifts are theoeretically possible but would likely require major scandals.

A winning indepdenent bid would be the biggest shift from 0 to 270+, but that seems very unlikely.

I'm not confident that even in the GOP landslide scenario the GOP carries New Jersey.

It's possible (although not likely) with Christie on the ticket.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maybe something like this:

But that's about it.

[TomC]

Midwest trending Republucan or Southern "urban" states (NC, Ga) trending Dem.

[pbrower2a]

Analogue, 1956/1960:

Eisenhower 1956, Nixon 1960  blue (Alaska* went for Nixon in 1960 -- light blue)
Eisenhower 1956, Kennedy 1960 white
Stevenson 1956, Kennedy 1960 red (Hawaii* went for Kennedy in 1960 -- pink)
Stevenson 1956, "uncommitted" 1960 green
No state went from Stevenson to Nixon in 1960.

I would guess that both Alaska* and Hawaii* would have gone for Ike had they voted in 1956.
*The two states did not vote in 1956 or earlier.

[pbrower2a]

This has to be the biggest shift not involving a Presidential disaster (economic meltdown, troublesome war, scandal):

1996 to 2000:

Dole and Dubya -- blue
Clinton and Dubya -- green (Florida disputed for a month... thus the light shade)
Clinton and Gore -- red

No state went from Dole to Gore.

Gore lost fully eleven states that Clinton had won four years earlier... and any one of them could have ensured that the Great Disaster would have not been President.  The states were scattered all over the US, and any one of them could have gotten Al Gore the Presidency. Dubya won every state that he absolutely had to win.  

OK, my bias is well-known; about the only anti-Dubya sentiment that I do not hold is the idea that 9/11 was an inside job.

Picking up eleven Clinton states and missing four others by 1% or less... the chances of doing so by random chance is one in (pardon the factorial notation)  15!/ (10!5!)  are 1 in 3003.

(Psst... did someone make a deal with the Devil? If I were the Evil One, someone infamous for cunning and foresight but using such only for destructive ends, I would have chosen Dubya over Gore).