1960s and Onward - A Case Study in Chaos

[Maxwell]

The Shots that Missed Kennedy

Dallas, TX - The plot of Lee Harvey Oswalt has been foiled, firing three bullets, killing John Connally but only injuring President Kennedy. Oswald was almost immediately apprehended for a different crime, the murder of cop J.D. Tippit, as Texas families morn the death of their Governor. The speculated meaning of the shooting was Kennedy's strong opposition to communism, as seen by Oswald's relation to the Soviet Union. Kennedy left Dallas to go back to the White House immediately following the shooting.

"If only the damn guy could shoot"
- Lyndon Baines Johnson, Vice President, muttering to a random staffer

"President Kennedy now has the sympathy of the voters. I can't imagine him losing this bid."
- Richard Nixon, talking to Republican donors begging him to enter the race.

"I, Preston Smith, do solemnly swear..."
Texas Governor Preston Smith at his inaugeration

[badgate]

Please proceed

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm hooked already.

[Maxwell]

War Games

In his last state of the union in his first term, President John Fitzgerald Kennedy addressed the need for changes in Civil Rights and Tax Reform for the coming year. His address was considered strong, but some felt his tone was condescending toward the opposition, and anti-civil rights leaders in both parties felt the sting and wished to return fire. Instead of the moderating tone, the pain from the shot made Kennedy more easily agitated, and as a result, less conciliatory to opposition. In the coming months, the civil rights bill became more and more stripped down as Kennedy face head on the problems of his administration. It seemed as if the young, bold leader, was facing the hard concrete.

And yet, some may say, it wasn't entirely Kennedy's fault. Vice President Lyndon Johnson, actively seeking the role himself, may have undercut Kennedy in negotiations with Congress. There are reports of him telling Democrat leaders "We will lose the south for a generation" if we vote on this legislation, and Republican leaders that this legislation "will infringe upon the rights of free people to do business". Johnson didn't have much power in the Kennedy administration, but he had power outside of. By the time a bill was passed, it merely applied to federal establishments, rather than the bold plan originally proposed. Kennedy had disappointed African American leaders severely. By signing of the bill, his approvals dropped to the mid 40s.

Kennedy was ignorant of this fact during the campaign (Johnson confidants swore to secrecy), and attached Johnson on to the ticket, and Johnson, callous as he is, accepted the offer, continuing to have personal popularity in the south where Kennedy had invoked some anger in the region, and knowing that he would have to have Kennedy's blessing in order to win in his own right at some point.

Despite a continual drop in popularity, Kennedy faced only marginal opposition to re-nomination. Senator Wayne Morse of Oregon and a little known civil rights activist challenged Kennedy on his seeming readiness for action against Vietnam and his disappointing effort on civil rights. Morse won his home state of Oregon but had very little sway with delegates.

President Kennedy Approval Ratings (7/31)
44% Approve
41% Disapprove

[Maxwell]

War Games Pt.2 - One Rocky Road

The candidate Republicans thought could unite all sides, Richard Nixon, decided to bow out, instead staying on the sidelines against two prideful enemies. The liberal wing of the Republican party backed Nelson Rockefeller, Governor of New York and in the extremely wealthy Rockefeller family, and Rockefeller led in most of the polls in the early race.

However, the rage of the Conservative wing had been bubbling for a long time. Eisenhower defeated Taft, and all across the country, the liberal and moderate wings of the Republican party had shut out those voices. Those voices had to be heard, and conservatives backed Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona for President. Barry Goldwater had an impressive electoral record on his own, defeating the Democratic Majority Leader on his first election, and had a personality that endeared him greatly to conservatives. However, Goldwater's extreme hawkishness and budget plan put him at long odds in the general election.

After Rockefeller's well-known remarriage, he fell in the polls to Goldwater, and the campaign turned quite nasty between the two. In New Hampshire, a write-in candidacy from Henry Cabot Lodge defeated the both of them, speaking to increasing moderate and left wing Republican angst over Rockefeller's imploding image. Still, Goldwater had a hard time winning states with his low fundraising compared to Rockefeller. Rockefeller pulled out big wins in New Jersey, Oregon, and West Virginia, while Goldwater defeated Rockefeller in Texas, Florida, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Illinois looked to be a toss-up between the two, but Rockefeller pulled to a strong victory after an endorsement from Charles Percy.

It all came down to California. Rockefeller's warchest allowed him to put his name out in the densely populated state, but Goldwater's rugged cowboy looks gave him a chance too. The two were neck and neck in the polls until his new wife gave birth to a new son. Goldwater pulled to a 55-45 victory, and his campaign looked confidently on to the nomination.

However, Richard Nixon wasn't pleased with the scenario, and sought to put into place a candidate of his liking. He thought Goldwater was too radical and Rockefeller was too damaged, obvious observations, and began a secret search around the country for delegates willing to change and candidates able to make the case. He rejected Henry Cabot Lodge, who had lost to Kennedy before, Harold Stassen, at this point a perennial loser, James Rhodes, too conservative, and George Romney, untested and gaffe prone, and came to the conclusion that the only person who could take his place was a certain Governor of Pennsylvania...

Governor William Scranton of Pennsylvania announced his candidacy for President on the convention floor, shocking many observers and upsetting some Rockefeller supporters who had pegged Scranton as backing the New York Governor. Scranton called for some consensus and wanted to back away from the extremism of Goldwater. Scranton fit the moderate defintion, and on the first ballot, was behind both Rockefeller and Goldwater.

Ballot 1
Barry Goldwater 633
Nelson Rockefeller 393
William Scranton 214
George Romney 36
Margaret Chase Smith 20
Walter Judd 15
Hiram Fong 5
Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. 2

Scranton's name, however, gained steam as Goldwater failed to pull enough numbers to win the nomination, his numbers grew on the second ballot, almost surpassing that of Nelson Rockefeller.

Fong endorses Scranton
Lodge endorses Scranton

Ballot 2
Barry Goldwater 634
Nelson Rockefeller 333
William Scranton 283
George Romney 36
Margaret Chase Smith 21
Walter Judd 5

The night after the second ballot, Nelson Rockefeller met with William Scranton. Rockefeller knew momentum was not on his side, and he knew that Scranton's more unified force had a better chance of defeating Goldwater. Rockefeller, with one fell swoop, gave moderates in the party another shot.

Goldwater was not going to go down that easy, surrogates for the Senator went after Scranton's credentials, his eagerness to run for President, and his ideology, with one speaker giving the famous "moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue" speech, which backfired on Goldwater and gave Scranton special ammunition. Scranton had pulled off the miraculous and pulled ahead of Goldwater.

Ballot 3
William Scranton 662
Barry Goldwater 628
George Romney 12
Margaret Chase Smith 5
Nelson Rockefeller 4

Scranton and Goldwater, in a similar setting as before, met at the night after the third ballot. Goldwater still had fight in him coming into to meeting, ready to fight for more delegates, but Scranton was more giving in nature. In the meeting, Scranton knew that Goldwater didn't want the Democrats to win, but also knew Goldwater didn't want the party to continue to be this eastern elite organization. Scranton came up with an offer Goldwater was hard-pressed to refuse and made the ticket of a lifetime.

Scranton/Goldwater '64

 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Excellent! This puts my timeline to shame . Keep up the great work!

[Maxwell]

The Bumpy Road



Gallup Poll (October):
56% Kennedy/Johnson
38% Scranton/Goldwater

Originally greeted as the savior of the party, Scranton/Goldwater received criticism from the pundits as being a downright confusing ticket. Scranton, a Republican moderate, disagreed on a wide array of issues with Goldwater, including civil rights. The outspoken Goldwater set back the ticket significantly when, in an interview, he said he would not "follow the leader" on civil rights and "stand on principle". Moderates were alienated, while Scranton's stance made sure that Kennedy was ahead in the South despite his support of Civil Rights.

That didn't do everything to explain Kennedy's wide lead. Kennedy, despite several follies in his first four years, attempted to continue his vision as the wide eyed and hopeful leader for the future. Kennedy proposed the biggest reform of healthcare this country has ever seen, Medicare, and fighting poverty. All the while, attack dog Lyndon Johnson went after Scranton/Goldwater's difference in opinion and the lack of experience of Scranton (only two years as a Congress and two years as a Governor). The appearance of Johnson, who was continually apprehensive on civil rights, gave Kennedy large leads in the South, and Kennedy's northeastern appeal gave him a lead in the Northeast.

It wasn't all bad for William Scranton, he seen some positivity on the ground, appealing to disappointed people who were tired of promises from the Kennedy administration. Richard Nixon and Dwight Eisenhower's avid support of the ticket continually pushed the ticket from total collapse. And while the solid South remained solid, Goldwater managed to make waves in the West, with Kennedy leading in California by a very narrow 5 points.

By the beginning of October, it almost seemed the President had a lead locked down. As a result, the President attempted to back out of the October 14th debate. For the first time in a while, things moved against Kennedy, with massive protests at the White House. Scranton gave a notable speech, chastising the President on his tactics, and after immense pressure, Kennedy went forward with the debate. It may have been the biggest mistake the President ever made...

"We were down and out for a while, we were going to lose for sure..."
- Barry Goldwater, retired, on his ranch

"Bill Scranton doesn't have the experience to be President, and we shouldn't give him the shot to learn on the job!"
- Lyndon Johnson, on the stump

"We had to go on the offensive, otherwise the Republican Party might've just been obliterated"
- Republican strategist, around October

[Maxwell]

A Debating Society



Gallup Poll (Post-Debate)
49% Kennedy/Johnson
45% Scranton/Goldwater

After a period of haggling, a debate finally occurred. Kennedy, easy in his lead, was on the defensive the whole time as Scranton tore Kennedy a new one, criticizing his record as President not matching his rhetoric. Despite constantly attacking, Scranton came off as Presidential, pledging to balance the budget, fight crime, widespread education reform, and take a strong hand to communism. Some accused Scranton of having racial undertones in his law and order message, but Scranton gave a strong denial to this charge, and grew significantly in the polls. Kennedy came off as tired, and Americans felt he had used his chance.

Vietnam proved an intense issue, and Scranton's shining moment in the debate was making the case that he could handle the situation better than President Kennedy. Noting the botching of the Bay of Pigs mission and earlier Vietnam interventions, Scranton leveled the charge that Kennedy was "toying around in foreign policy".

With the sudden competitiveness of the race, funds and endorsements came in for Bill Scranton's campaign, and the last poll before the election showed it barely within the margin of error. Kennedy's weak approvals hadn't moved much, and the appeal of the wide ideological gap between Goldwater and Scranton grew, with conservatives rallying behind the ticket aggressively on the balanced budget issue, and Scranton's education reform brought on moderates and even liberals who voted for Kennedy strongly over Nixon.