Newfoundland and Labrador Electoral Map

[Krago]

Last Thursday, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Paul Davis announced his intention to appoint a independent commission to cut ten members from the House of Assembly before the provincial election expected this fall.  This would reduce the size of the legislature from 48 members to 38.

Here is my attempt to create a map with 38 districts.

http://tinyurl.com/Proposed-NL38

(This link works better.)

[Hatman 🍁]

What a moron (Paul Davis). Doesn't he realize it's harder to win seats if they're larger? The way the Tories are polling right now, this map might be the difference between one and two seats. That can be a huge difference.

Anyways, great maps, as always.

[Krago]

Here's another 38-district map of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Newfoundland and Labrador electoral boundaries for the 1946 National Convention

[Hatman 🍁]

Awesome find! Interesting to see that the western shore of Conception Bay had as many districts as the St. John's area.

[Krago]

Bill 42 is now being debated in the House of Assembly.  Here are the proposed rules:

-   The aboriginal-majority district of Torngat Mountains in northern Labrador is protected.
-   The provincial quotient (excluding Torngat Mountains) is 13,810, based on the 2011 Census.
-   For Labrador and remote areas of the province without road access, districts must be within 25% of the quotient (10,358 to 17,263).
-   For the rest of the province, districts must be within 10% of the quotient (12,429 to 15,192).

The 10% restriction presented some unusual challenges.  My original Burin-Grand Bank district had a population of 11,171, 19% below the quotient.  However if you add the area around Marystown (pop. 6,099) which borders it on the north, the population jumps to 17,270 - 25% above!  I ended up splitting the town in half along The Narrows in a Solomon-like decision.  There were a few other odd arrangements around Stephenville and Grand Falls-Windsor to bring those districts under the +10% barrier, and Bonavista South made it with 13 people to spare.

In Labrador, the district of Labrador West fell below the 10,358 minimum, so people needed to be added from the Lake Melville district.  Adding the area around Churchill Falls wasn’t enough, so the choice was required to add either the aboriginal community of Sheshatshiu or the area around CFB Goose Bay to Labrador West.  I decided to keep Happy Valley-Goose Bay intact and transfer Sheshatshiu.

The net change from my first proposal was to remove a district from Newfoundland's South Coast and add one to the Avalon Peninsula.

Enjoy.

http://tinyurl.com/Proposed-NL38

[Hatman 🍁]

I never understood why Sheshatshiu wasn't in the Torngat Mountains riding. If they wanted to have an Aboriginal only riding, why exclude the only other major Aboriginal community in the riding, especially if the riding was under populated?

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, I can't imagine people in Labrador will be happy about losing a riding.

[lilTommy]

There was a compromise made, there will be 40 seats now, not 38
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/01/23/newfoundland-labrador-seats-bill-42_n_6531668.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

only the NDP opposed the move to reduce seats by the sounds of it. Which is odd since the NDP in NS approved a seat reduction redistribution (even though that was just a reduction of 1 total, but 4 mergers of some sort)

[Hatman 🍁]

It's not odd at all. Any sane New DEMOCRAT would oppose reducing seats. The NS NDP made a mistake with their redistribution, and it was one of the reasons they were defeated (albeit a small one).  Plus, the NDP would be most harmed by seat reduction, since they usually only win 1-2 seats.

I look forward to Krago's 40 seat plan.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder where politicians come up with these arbitrary seat numbers anyways?

[lilTommy]

It's not odd at all. Any sane New DEMOCRAT would oppose reducing seats. The NS NDP made a mistake with their redistribution, and it was one of the reasons they were defeated (albeit a small one).  Plus, the NDP would be most harmed by seat reduction, since they usually only win 1-2 seats.

I look forward to Krago's 40 seat plan.

That's why it was odd... I didn't understand then why NSNDP made that move to reduce seats. But I think there were other reasons why they lost too
I still pine for the days here on Ontario of the old 70-75K based seats

[Hatman 🍁]

I still pine for the days here on Ontario of the old 70-75K based seats

Yes, which is why I made that map a few months ago of my proposal for 75K seats. I think you saw it, right?

[Hatman 🍁]

I never understood why Sheshatshiu wasn't in the Torngat Mountains riding. If they wanted to have an Aboriginal only riding, why exclude the only other major Aboriginal community in the riding, especially if the riding was under populated?

I asked this question on Twitter, and got a response from @mclabradore:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, based on this, Sheshatshiu should stay in whatever riding HVGB is in, which will be difficult with a 3 seat Labrador plan.

[Hatman 🍁]

Labrador will keep 4 seats: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/mha-reduction-cynical-move-but-smart-for-tories-1.2929921

[joevsimp]

quick question: do Canadian seat redistributions work off of population or registered voters. Here in Britainit voters, usually 60-75k per seat which works out to about 100k people

[Hatman 🍁]

Population

[lilTommy]

Population

Quebec uses Registered voters provincially don't they?

[lilTommy]

I still pine for the days here on Ontario of the old 70-75K based seats

Yes, which is why I made that map a few months ago of my proposal for 75K seats. I think you saw it, right?

Yup, Loved it! remember I drew out those boundaries on a 2011 federal poll-by-poll map and you added one transposing the recent provincial election results

[Hatman 🍁]

I still pine for the days here on Ontario of the old 70-75K based seats

Yes, which is why I made that map a few months ago of my proposal for 75K seats. I think you saw it, right?

Yup, Loved it! remember I drew out those boundaries on a 2011 federal poll-by-poll map and you added one transposing the recent provincial election results

Yes, I remember now! That was a fun, yet time consuming project. If I had the time, I'd do a 100 seat Newfoundland map.

Population

Quebec uses Registered voters provincially don't they?

This is possible. MaxQue would know. Speaking of which, I believe Quebec will be doing yet another redistribution before the next election.

[Krago]

Here is my new 40-district electoral map for Newfoundland and Labrador.

http://goo.gl/ENV2ei

Enjoy.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair get grandfathered in too?

[Krago]

All four Labrador seats are protected.


             (6)  Notwithstanding the other provisions of this section, for the purpose of the commission's report in 2015, the commission shall divide the Labrador portion of the province into 4 proposed districts, including the district referred to in subsection (4), and shall, in describing the boundaries of those districts, consider their historical boundaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

does "consider" mean "maintain"?

[Smid]

Speaking of which, I believe Quebec will be doing yet another redistribution before the next election.

&*$%!!!! Not again! I thought they were every ten years?

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of which, I believe Quebec will be doing yet another redistribution before the next election.

&*$%!!!! Not again! I thought they were every ten years?

More info:

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/provincial/electoral-map/next-map.php