USA inflation in 2015
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  USA inflation in 2015
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jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: June 18, 2015, 07:49:46 AM »

The May CPI YOY is 0.0% which is again lower than expected. CPI Chain YOY is -0.3%.  The gap between CPI and CPI Chain is narrowing from earlier in the year.  We are still headed toward 0.3% inflation for the entire year of 2015.  If the USA GDP growth in 2015 will be around 2%, then USA 2015 nominal GDP growth will be lower (by a large gap) than every year since 2009 when nominal GDP growth was deeply negative.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: October 08, 2015, 07:22:14 AM »

Looks like we will end up in 2015 inflation being around 0.2% or perhaps even lower so the inflation swap traders were closer to the mark the economists.  We will be more sure in Dec this year.  For 2016 the swap traders say it will be around 0.6% while the economists have it at around 2.0%.
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Taco Truck 🚚
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« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2015, 11:05:03 PM »

Who... cares?  Inflation is at historical lows.  Why does anyone care one percentage point one way or the other?  It is meaningless.  Whatever projections the Fed or anyone else puts out are just a rough guide.  I'm more concerned if inflation were to suddenly spike with no warning or if we were to slip into disinflation.
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King
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« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2015, 04:28:01 PM »

Looks like we will end up in 2015 inflation being around 0.2% or perhaps even lower so the inflation swap traders were closer to the mark the economists.  We will be more sure in Dec this year.  For 2016 the swap traders say it will be around 0.6% while the economists have it at around 2.0%.

Who are these The Economists? They sound bad at their jobs.
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2015, 06:59:43 AM »

Looks like we will end up in 2015 inflation being around 0.2% or perhaps even lower so the inflation swap traders were closer to the mark the economists.  We will be more sure in Dec this year.  For 2016 the swap traders say it will be around 0.6% while the economists have it at around 2.0%.

Who are these The Economists? They sound bad at their jobs.

They are economists at various financial institutions (investment banks, economic/financial research firms, various funds etc etc) which happen to be the same institutions where the swap traders usually work too.  So often within the same institution the swap traders come up with totally different inflation rates forecasts relative to economists.  Since I have some involvement in this sector I am able to speak to some of these economists and swap traders from time to time.  Both insist they are right of course.  Swap traders say that economists tend to have a herd mentality and are too conservative to shift their forecasts to fit ground realities until it is far too late.  Economists claim that swap traders are often trying to hedge their positions so the inflation swap market is more dominated by that factor than what the real inflation rates is going to be.  Of course so far the swap traders ended up being right.  Let be clear the economist tend to be good at forecasting the monthly CPI YOY number coming out days afterwards.   In 2015 they mostly failed to predict the yearly CPI a year in advance. 

The Sept CPI YOY number will come out in a couple of days.  Economist consensus which I said is mostly accurate seems to be -0.1%.   If so then we are even more likely to have the entire 2015 CPI being around 0.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: January 20, 2016, 09:00:43 AM »

Dec Inflation came in at 0.7% which that in 2015 CPI is just 0.12%. Pretty much total victory for the swap traders of late 2014 versus the economists.  For 2016 the Economist project around 1.5%-1.6% while the swap traders expect around 0.8%.
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