2012: No Sandy

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I've noticed that Republicans like to re-write history. In 1992, Clinton was destroying Bush in the polls all throughout September, until Perot came in in October, cutting deeply into Clinton's numbers and closing the gap. Even though at the time the people running Bush's campaign publicly celebrated Perot's re-entry, saying he would help them draw even with Clinton, as soon as the campaign ended conservatives blamed Perot, saying they would have won if he hadn't been running.

I find it absolutely disgusting that conservatives like Bill O'Reilly got away with claiming that Romney would have won without Sandy, even though he was not ahead at the time. Romney was behind in OH with every pollster before the storm, so he wouldn't have won the EV. And unless people seriously believe Sandy gave Obama a 4% bounce in this insanely polarized electorate, he wouldn't have won the PV either.

I'm just curious if anyone here actually believes Romney would have won without Sandy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think romney would have won Florida. Assuming nothing else changed, all the other states would stay the same.

[IceSpear]

I think romney would have won Florida. Assuming nothing else changed, all the other states would stay the same.

This. Florida was close enough that the Sandy response could've barely put Obama over the edge there. But the revisionist history that Romney was going to win in a landslide and only lost "bcuz Sandy" or "bcuz Christie hug" was hilarious.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Obama wins (duh). Frankly, Romney ran an pretty weak campaign (he reminded me of Thomas Dewey in that he let the opposition brand him and was generally disliked by the public). Romney didn't need Hurricane Sandy to kill his candidacy: he strangled it himself with his 47% comment and others like it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only difference is that Obama's margin would be down a couple points in NY and NJ.

[Vosem]

Romney would've done a bit better, mostly in the Northeast where it wouldn't've helped anyway. He would maybe have carried Florida (that's also a place where competent hurricane response can swing votes), but that would be it. Obama would've still eclipsed 300 EVs.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think Sandy changed anything .

[Intell]

Obama still wins. I don't get this myth that republicans could have won without Sandy.

A republican myth, like Benghazi.

[The Other Castro]

Obama gets about 10 less votes in the Northeast

[Maxwell]

The only difference is that Obama's margin would be down a couple points in NY and NJ.

Duh

[pikachu]

Obama wins, and maybe NJ, NY, and MD don't swing towards him. I can see him doing as well in NY because he did a lot better upstate in 2008 and Sandy mostly affected places that vote Democrat (NYC).

[DC Al Fine]

# of Republicans on Atlas talking about losing because of Sandy < # of Democrats on Atlas talking about Republicans talking about losing because of Sandy.

[Aliens]

Obama has the same result in the electoral map even though he would've gotten fewer votes in the states affected by Sandy.

[The Other Castro]

# of Republicans on Atlas talking about losing because of Sandy < # of Democrats on Atlas talking about Republicans talking about losing because of Sandy.

So basically, 0 is less than 1

[SWE]

Romney wins the crucial swing states of New York and New Jersey

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Haha the Romney campaign was the real natural disaster that year

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The only difference is that Obama's margin would be down a couple points in NY and NJ.

This.