Manchin/Beshear vs Hogan/Baker

[justfollowingtheelections]

Joe Manchin and Steve Beshear for the Democrats
vs
Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker for the Republicans

WV and KY are the worst Obama states with a Democratic senator or governor, while MD and MA are the worst Romney states with a Republican senator or governor.

What would a map of such an election look like?

[Rockefeller GOP]

Tough to say, here's a guess:

[RFayette]

Tough to say, here's a guess:

Considering how Hogan did in Western Maryland, I have a hard time believing he'd struggle too much in West Virginia.

[Mister Mets]

Um... no. West Virginians don't even know who Hogan is, and the reason he did well in Western Maryland is because EVERY Republican does well there. It's not some special love they have for him.

Joe Manchin, on the other hand, actually appeals to WV.

By the time the General Election comes along, West Virginians would know who Hogan is, so that's a moot point.

I'd give Manchin/ Beshear the edge as they're experienced without much Washington baggage. However, Hogan and Baker seem like they're more effective at introducing themselves to voters.

Manchin's pro-life views, as well as other departures from democratic party orthodoxy, might allow for a significant (five percent or more) liberal third-party candidacy, which could also screw up the results.

[DS0816]

Base states for both parties. Followed by the perceived battlegrounds and bellwethers making the difference.

(I'm just grateful this isn't a poll.)

[Rockefeller GOP]

Base states for both parties. Followed by the perceived battlegrounds and bellwethers making the difference.

(I'm just grateful this isn't a poll.)

I highly, highly doubt that WV and KY are voting Republican in this election.

[Reaganfan]

Oooh tough call. Even I like Manchin. My guess is he would win big.

[NewYorkExpress]

A third party wins... although it's open question of whether one from the left (Warren,Feingold,Brown) or the right (Cruz, Huckabee, Carson)

[dmmidmi]

When I saw the title of this thread, I thought you meant this guy was at the top of the GOP ticket:

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Hogan seems like a decent, center-right manager candidate who would have very little of the base problems that would cause trouble for Manchin. I think the map winds up looking pretty normal, with the exception of WV switching, but Hogan/Baker would win almost all the swing states.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I would be tempted to vote for the Republicans if the ticket was reversed.

I think it would go for Hogan, narrowly. Within 1-2% and no more than 30 EVs separating them. I don't even want to attempt to make a map (and I can't post links yet).