Democratic Party of Japan leadership race Jan 18 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Democratic Party of Japan leadership election today. The candidates are:

Goshi Hosono: Former Secretary-General of the party. Favors cooperation and possibly outright merger with the Japan Innovation Party. He is backed by his own faction, a faction led by Nippon Kaigi member Akihisa Nagashima, and by several members of Seiji Maehara's faction (Maehara, also a Nippon Kaigi member, opted not to run himself).

Katsuya Okada: Former leader and current acting leader. Represents the dominant barely centre-left strain of the party. Is against any strong alliance with the JIP which would jeopardize the party's support from unions. He is backed by former Prime Minister Noda, former members of the Democratic Socialist Party, and, like Hosono, some members of Seiji Maehara's faction.

Akira Nagatsuma: Former Health Minister. The most leftist candidate. Backed by former members of the Socialist Party of Japan. He is also backed by several public sector unions.

So basically this is a clear choice between right, left, and centre.

Diet members, regional assembly members, due paying party members, and House of Chancellors candidates get to vote in the first round. If no one wins a majority, it goes to a run-off with just the MPs voting. It's likely Hosono will win a plurality in the first round and then it will go to a run-off where Nagatsuma's MPs will switch and give a victory to Okada.

[Famous Mortimer]

Part of me wants Hosono not to win because he's the worst candidate.

Another part of him to win that way he can take his horrible people and form a new party with the JIP and all the people who don't want to do that can form a more unambiguously left party.

[EPG]

Is he a bad candidate in the Atlas Forum sense, or in the sense that actual Japanese people wouldn't like his leadership?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Okada just won in the run-off, by playing up lefty policies

@EPG, the DJP's main problem is it is too ideologically inconsistent beyond being anti-LDP. They really need to let the JIP go.

[EPG]

Okada just won in the run-off, by playing up lefty policies

@EPG, the DJP's main problem is it is too ideologically inconsistent beyond being anti-LDP. They really need to let the JIP go.

Ideological inconsistency isn't a problem for political parties in Japan! It is more like a prerequisite. In so far as the DPJ has a problem, it's that nobody liked the one time they were in government.

[jaichind]

Okada just won in the run-off, by playing up lefty policies

@EPG, the DJP's main problem is it is too ideologically inconsistent beyond being anti-LDP. They really need to let the JIP go.

I agree with this.  One of the reasons why DPJ was thought of never being able to come to power in the 2000-2007 period was its ideological inconstancy where the old Dovish center-left coexisted with neo-liberal economic reformers.  This was never really resolved but DPJ won in 2009 anyway ad LDP stumbled in 2007-2009.  But up until early 2009 there were constant talk of LDP DPJ party realignment mainly due to inconsistencies both within LDP and DPJ.  Now these inconsistencies have fixed themselves with the creation of JP JRP and their merger into JIP.  Now we have two fairly consistent opposition parties (DPJ JIP) that represent two different critiques of LDP.  Being that JIP is now moderate on the hawk-dove axis with the FPG being the super-hawk opposition party (and sinking anyway) there are a lot of room for DPJ and JIP tactical alliances in elections going forward to try to defeat LDP-KP.    Merger talks are a bad idea and merely recreate the situation in 2000-2007 where there is a large and significant opposition that has not prospect of coming into power.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

well, the problem is that once they get into power they're completely moribund and start collapsing into factions. At least the LDP are united in the sheer determination to protect established interests. (I think the LDP are closest you will come to an undiluted small-"c" conservative party)

Weirdly enough - seeing as how terrible the DJP did last time - they aren't in a terrible place. They've jettisoned jokers and ill-placed wings. Ozawa's revolt failed. The JIP and PFG aren't going to destroy them - they haven't lost their status as the dominant opposition party. All they need now is some, err, policies.

[jaichind]

Look like it was

first round
Hosono         298
Okada           294
Nagatsuma   168

second round (which exclude local DPJ chapter votes)
Okada           133
Hosono         120

Hosono  would have been a bigger gamble for DPJ.  It seems that the DPJ MPs and MLAs have decided to go for the safer choice and bet on Abe making mistakes next couple of years to bring votes back to DPJ.

[jaichind]

well, the problem is that once they get into power they're completely moribund and start collapsing into factions. At least the LDP are united in the sheer determination to protect established interests. (I think the LDP are closest you will come to an undiluted small-"c" conservative party)

Their main problem was that they decided to copy the LDP way of doing things.  The allocation of ministers in 2009 was based on seniority (just like LDP) and internal organization was based on factions (just like LDP).  Problem with that is LDP is powerful based on the local Clientelism and DPJ can never match LDP in that respect so replicating their style of organization would lead to disaster which it did. 

[EPG]

well, the problem is that once they get into power they're completely moribund and start collapsing into factions. At least the LDP are united in the sheer determination to protect established interests. (I think the LDP are closest you will come to an undiluted small-"c" conservative party)

Weirdly enough - seeing as how terrible the DJP did last time - they aren't in a terrible place. They've jettisoned jokers and ill-placed wings. Ozawa's revolt failed. The JIP and PFG aren't going to destroy them - they haven't lost their status as the dominant opposition party. All they need now is some, err, policies.

But, this characterisation of the LDP is very 1990s. It pre-dates the rise of the moderate hawks (Koizumi/Abe) which have plenty of objections to the historic course of the LDP.

The Japan Socialists were both a dominant opposition and had plenty of policies - and opposition they remained. Their problem was being too extreme, but the DPJ's current problem is that too few voters trust them.

[politicus]

well, the problem is that once they get into power they're completely moribund and start collapsing into factions. At least the LDP are united in the sheer determination to protect established interests. (I think the LDP are closest you will come to an undiluted small-"c" conservative party)

Weirdly enough - seeing as how terrible the DJP did last time - they aren't in a terrible place. They've jettisoned jokers and ill-placed wings. Ozawa's revolt failed. The JIP and PFG aren't going to destroy them - they haven't lost their status as the dominant opposition party. All they need now is some, err, policies.

You need to be fairly consistent to be trusted and it is hard (neigh impossible) to remain consistent if your party is so heterogeneous as DJP is.
But, this characterisation of the LDP is very 1990s. It pre-dates the rise of the moderate hawks (Koizumi/Abe) which have plenty of objections to the historic course of the LDP.

The Japan Socialists were both a dominant opposition and had plenty of policies - and opposition they remained. Their problem was being too extreme, but the DPJ's current problem is that too few voters trust them.

You need to be fairly consistent to be trusted and it is hard (neigh impossible) to remain consistent if your party is so heterogeneous as DJP is.

[EPG]

They have never been very consistent but they have won one election. The proximate cause of their current absence of trust is that they just governed badly. Maybe the consumption tax and the triple disaster were to some extent due to LDP decisions, but the DPJ did really badly in responding to them, and then there were problems that were purely their own fault, like alienating the United States.

[politicus]

They have never been very consistent but they have won one election. The proximate cause of their current absence of trust is that they just governed badly. Maybe the consumption tax and the triple disaster were to some extent due to LDP decisions, but the DPJ did really badly in responding to them, and then there were problems that were purely their own fault, like alienating the United States.

They won that election because people were fed up with LDP. You can do that once, but to win again you need to be perceived as trustworthy and that includes an amount of consistency.