Duckworth vs. Kirk

[henster]

Does Kirk stand a chance? Who wins and what would the margin be?

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Duckworth wins by low single digits. He'll be like Begich, he'll run a good campaign but be swept away in a unfavorable state and/or year.

[SPC]

Duckworth won by 10 against a flawed incumbent in a district Obama won by 17. On the one hand, Kirk is stronger than Walsh. On the other hand, Illinois is about as Democratic as IL-8, so Duckworth probably wins, although by less than 10%.

[Maxwell]

Duckworth wins by 3-5.

[Württemberger]

I think Kirk is being underestimated and I also don't think that 2016 will be a Dem landslide. He can still win the election, although it will be a close race either way (somewhere between a 5-point win for Kirk and a 5-point win for Duckworth).

[Miles]

Unless 2016 is a GOP tsunami, I think Duckworth wins by about 53-46. This race is reminiscent of the Massachusetts Senate race in 2012.

[Xing]

I'm with ElectionsGuy, I think there's a good chance that Kirk will be the Begich of 2016.

[Panda Express]

Does Kirk stand a chance? Who wins and what would the margin be?

The question should be "Does Duckworth stand a chance?" and the answer is quite obviously, no. Duckworth is literally the worst candidate the Dems could put up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Does Kirk stand a chance? Who wins and what would the margin be?

The question should be "Does Duckworth stand a chance?" and the answer is quite obviously, no. Duckworth is literally the worst candidate the Dems could put up.

Eh, Duckworth's just needs to promote herself as a Democratic minority female double-amputee veteran, and she'll be fine. Would barely have to open her mouth with Hillary at the top of the ticket. She'd probably win comfortably (see: the margins said above).

[henster]

This race is reminiscent of the Massachusetts Senate race in 2012.

^^^
Basically this. They like Brown/Kirk, it's just they like Warren/Duckworth more. And partisan voting. But it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Kirk could just barely survive.


Plus, the Massachusetts narrative is better than Alaska because you've got a personally inoffensive, ideologically moderate-to-conservative male Republican Senator upended by a personally inoffensive, progressive female Democrat (we can add "progressive crusader" if Duckworth runs that line) in a Democratic Presidential year in a heavily-D state.

Kirk is nowhere near as popular as Brown was, half the state has no clue who he is. Kirk has made little impression on the voters a better comparison would be to Hagan who was just as anonymous.

[Mr. Smith]

Yeah I expect Kirk to be Hagan'd out more than Begich'd.

[Vosem]

In a neutral year, Duckworth by low single digits. But she's weaker than the typical Democrat, and I expect someone stronger (like Cheri Bustos) to be the nominee. Either way, though, Kirk needs at least a lean-Republican atmosphere to prevail.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll say Duckworth by 51-48 or thereabouts. Duckworth is one of the weaker options, but IL is just so democratic in presidential years that unless Democrats nominate Pat Quinn, there's no scenario where the race starts at better (from Kirk's perspective) than Tilt D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Duckworth, may not be the ideal candidate, but if she is willing to run and competete, then she should get her chance.

It won't be easy either way, but she will win between 3-5 pts in a neutral year.