DeVos and Romney vs. Rauner and Snyder

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This is one of those things I've been curious about for a while: how did four races with such similar circumstances have such different outcomes? 

When Jennifer Granholm ran for reelection as Governor of Michigan in 2006, Michigan had the worst economy and the highest unemployment in the nation, and her GOP challenger was Dick DeVos, a wealthy businessman who was the son of Amway cofounder Rich DeVos.  DeVos touted his record of creating jobs as the head of Amway, and Democrats attacked him as a greedy vulture capitalist who laid off workers and sent jobs to China.  In the late spring and early summer, DeVos was even winning in most polls.  Granholm pinned the blame for Michigan's weak economy on Bush and cruised to a near-landslide victory over DeVos (56-42%.)  Except for a few small details, the same thing happened to Romney in 2012.

When Rick Snyder ran for Governor of Michigan four years later, Democrats also attacked his wealth and labeled him as an "outsourcer," using similar attacks that had been used on DeVos.  But he won by an even wider margin than Granholm.  Then, in 2014, when Rauner ran for Governor of Illinois, Democrats tried the DeVos/Romney tactic and failed again.

What circumstances contributed to this?  Do you think it may have to do with Rauner and Snyder being more moderate, and thus stronger candidates?

[IceSpear]

The simplest I can boil it down to:

2006: Democratic wave year in a Democratic state, that's mostly it. GOPers got killed downballot as Independents voted Democrat

2010: Republican wave year, Snyder was seen as more conservative-but-not-terrifying. Democrats got killed downballot as their base didn't turnout and Indies swung heavily Republican

2012: Romney ran a narrow campaign, said dumb stuff, Republicans were viewed as insane, Obama team had good campaign and turnout machine, the economy shifted into medium gear just in time, Obama painted Romney as out of touch very early on. Democrats turned out and Indies voted only slightly Republican as there was still a "give Obama more time" mentality.

2014: Rauner ran an inclusive campaign, Quinn had a long record of failure on financial issues, Republican wave year, Dem base didn't turn out, Indies again voted heavily Republican, there was a "time for a change" mentality.

I can make it simpler: partisan tide.

[free my dawg]

2006: Wave.

2010: Wave, plus having a good candidate vs a weak campaigner helped.

2012: Wave, gaffes by Romney.

2014: General anti-incumbent sentiment, very unpopular governor, strong challenger who was able to mask his economic conservatism by attacking Quinn's fiscal troubles, wave.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

2006: Democratic wave year in a Democratic state, that's mostly it. GOPers got killed downballot as Independents voted Democrat

Michigan isn't really a "Democratic state."  Bush only lost it by 5 points in 2000 and 3 points in 2004.  Plus, the GOP controls the all the state-level executive offices and both chambers of the legislature.  It votes more D in Dem years (like 2006).

[dmmidmi]

There are a number of pretty stark differences between Rick Snyder and Dick DeVos.

First, their business background, what we're familiar with each business, and the public perception of each candidate as a businessperson. Generations of Michiganders have had to sit through an Amway Business Owner presentation at least once. I've sat through one or two. My mother sat through them. Amway representatives came to my sister's house and tried to recruit her by letting her test drive a Porsche. The face of that very business model? Dick DeVos. It's hard to shake the image of being a guy who got rich running a pyramid scheme when you got rich running a pyramid scheme. To add to that, he's the son of the guy who invented that pyramid scheme.

Ask any number of Michiganders how much they know about Gateway--as a business--and you'll probably get a lot of blank stares. Snyder didn't have that sleazy businessman stench on him, because most of us were introduced to him as The Nerd, during a Super Bowl commercial, and his business is a lot less familiar to most people (especially in Michigan) than Amway.

Second, the culture and values that they project are totally different. For decades, the DeVos family has poured a whole lot of cash into very right-wing and conservative Christian causes--they even have their own right-wing think tank in Grand Rapids. This hyper-religious image that DeVos embraced probably scared a whole lot of voters in Metro Detroit, that may have otherwise considered voting for a Republican. If Governor Snyder has donated that kind of cash to similar causes, we don't know about it.

Third, as a political newcomer, Rick Snyder directly benefitted from a contentious primary, where he ran to the center and let two or three lunatics cannibalize. He came out looking sane, pragmatic, and reasonable. DeVos never had that opportunity--even if he did, I'm not sure it would have done him any good, since he isn't a very good politician.

Finally, Granholm was re-elected in a good year for Democrats, in a state where incumbents aren't typically booted out of the Governor's mansion. Snyder was elected in a good year for Republicans, and the outgoing Governor--from the opposite party--was about as popular as terminal cancer.

[free my dawg]

2006: Democratic wave year in a Democratic state, that's mostly it. GOPers got killed downballot as Independents voted Democrat

Michigan isn't really a "Democratic state."  Bush only lost it by 5 points in 2000 and 3 points in 2004.  Plus, the GOP controls the all the state-level executive offices and both chambers of the legislature.  It votes more D in Dem years (like 2006).

West Virginia isn't really a "Republican state". Gore only lost it by 5 points in 2000, and Democrats control almost all statewide offices and controlled the state house until 2014. It votes more R in years without Clinton (like 2014).

[Indy Texas]

Regarding DeVos/Snyder, it's worth noting that the DeVos family has a history of dabbling in nasty right-wing politics in Michigan, particularly regarding social issues. Compare that to Snyder, who was largely apolitical for most of his career.

Also, Snyder and Rauner were both successful in business in their own right. Romney was born into money and privilege but had a successful career that was distinct from his father's auto industry background. DeVos, in contrast, basically just had a direct bloodline into Amway since his dad founded it and can't really say he "built anything" himself. It's harder to respect someone like that.