Describe a potential Obama 2012/Romney 2016 Voter

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What sort of person who voted for Obama in 2012 could Romney conceivably win over in 2016?

(and no, it's not me. Unless the dems nominate Sanders, I'm not voting for Romney.)

[IceSpear]

People who fill in random ovals on their ballot every election.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Monica Lewinsky maybe? Or some misogynist who doesn't believe women can run things.

I'm not sure why one would really switch their vote - not to say Romney can't win, there's a lot to do with national mood at the time.

[OpinionatedGuy]

The same "swing" voters that politicians spend millions of dollars every election to sway.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

An Obama voter who realized that all of Romney's predictions came true and regrets that nothing got done over the last four years.

[Brittain33]

Affluent professional gays who feel that gay rights are over after the Supreme Court rules and are unimpressed by Hillary.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

An Obama voter who realized that all of Romney's predictions came true and regrets that nothing got done over the last four years.

Wouldn't that person vote for the Dem then considering Obama's economic record is better than Romney himself forecasted for his own term.

[Reaganfan]

My mother and stepfather. They both love Reagan, Clinton, and Dubya. Both voted for Obama. But Obamacare has indirectly negatively affected their lives, and both aren't crazy about Hillary. They told me under a Romney/Hillary race, this time they'd vote for Mitt. Two extra Ohio votes for him, meh.

[badgate]

a white blue collar woman from ohio

[solarstorm]

Probably a misogynist, or a former welfare recipient who won the lottery, or an

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[Joe Republic]

Ann Romney.

[Intell]

I'm just making this up: A Black, Mormon Male

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Outside of random personal situations... it's probably the hardest one to figure out.

[BaconBacon96]

Generically moderate to conservative swing voters...This isn't too hard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Generically moderate to conservative swing voters...This isn't too hard.

But the question would be why they'd support Obama, and then Romney... purely because they're swing voters?

[Intell]

Some Blacks.

[King]

My mother and stepfather. They both love Reagan, Clinton, and Dubya. Both voted for Obama. But Obamacare has indirectly negatively affected their lives, and both aren't crazy about Hillary. They told me under a Romney/Hillary race, this time they'd vote for Mitt. Two extra Ohio votes for him, meh.

I thought you said this before 2012 that they switched? Did they go back to Obama at the last minute?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Generically moderate to conservative swing voters...This isn't too hard.

But the question would be why they'd support Obama, and then Romney... purely because they're swing voters?

In late-2011/early-2012, the economy started to recover a little faster from its stagnation just in time to help Obama, so there may have been a "hey, things are starting to get better, maybe Obama's not so bad after all" thinking that got Obama more support. Now, the economy is still in "2% mode" as it was in 2012 and wages haven't caught up, so there's some disappointment and a "let's give him a chance, maybe I was wrong about 2012" thought line that could net Romney votes.

In 2012, blaming Republicans and GW Bush was still a valid argument for Obama as less than 4 years had elapsed, while Obama owns the economy in 2016.

I can see Romney try to run the "Actually, I was right about everything" line on foreign policy, which despite being oversimplified, would be hard for Democrats to respond to (How can they fit a detailed explanation of the complex geopolitical history behind ISIS and Russia's actions into a 3 minute debate argument, let alone a TV commercial? They can't, so Romney can easily say "It's all Obama's fault because he's weak").

If you think about how most swing voters are, it's not hard to come up with a plethora of scenarios and reasons why they change their votes.

[stegosaurus]

Lower class workers who wanted more safety net spending and were instead given a fine for not purchasing health insurance that they couldn't afford (even with the assistance).

Conservative, largely southern Democrats who are burning out on identity politics.

[TomC]

So, I realize this isn't the question asked, but generally what perecentage of the voting public changes in a pres election on average? Percentage of 2012 voters who voted P for the first time, % that voted before but not in 2008, % of voters who did vote in 2008 and 12? Can Romney get new voters? Some conservatives who sat out last time but after 8 years are fed up? Maybe he can't change Dem voters to his column but can he depress turnout so his votes from last time are a higher percentage of the electorate?

[Mister Mets]

A few come to mind...

A) Misogynists and people who are less likely to vote for a woman.

B) A certain kind of value voter who doesn't like Clinton, but thinks Romney and Obama are decent people.

C) Someone who thought Romney agreed with them more polticially, but that Obama cared more about people like them. These are the people Romney might sway with a good campaign, and that Hillary might have trouble with.

D) Anyone who has gotten more disappointed with Democrats since the 2012 election.

[Mehmentum]

1).  Maybe some blacks who voted for Obama only because he was Black, but generally prefers Republicans.

2).  Misogynists.

3).  Very fickle people.

[Skill and Chance]

1. Black Republicans

2. Misogynists who otherwise lean left

3. Relatively well-off moderates/liberals upset about changes to their health care plans

4. Protest votes from progressives, particularly if Warren or Sanders loses a primary challenge and Romney runs as a consensus moderate

5. If the economy is worse in 2016 than in 2012, people who lost their job in the interim

Of those, I think #1 and #3 would be the most significant.  I don't think there are many people who fit #2 around anymore.  If this were 1976 they would be more relevant. 

[IceSpear]

1. Black Republicans

2. Misogynists who otherwise lean left

3. Relatively well-off moderates/liberals upset about changes to their health care plans

4. Protest votes from progressives, particularly if Warren or Sanders loses a primary challenge and Romney runs as a consensus moderate

5. If the economy is worse in 2016 than in 2012, people who lost their job in the interim

Of those, I think #1 and #3 would be the most significant.  I don't think there are many people who fit #2 around anymore.  If this were 1976 they would be more relevant. 

#4 would vote Green instead. No way would any Warren or Sanders supporter vote for Romney.

[King]

Lower class workers who wanted more safety net spending and were instead given a fine for not purchasing health insurance that they couldn't afford (even with the assistance).

Conservative, largely southern Democrats who are burning out on identity politics.

Lower class workers were put on Medicaid...