Return of the Kennedys: Rise of the Castros

[The Other Castro]

A look back at the 2016 campaign...(Part 1)

Initial Republican list of candidates:
Fmr. Governor Jeb Bush
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum
Dr. Ben Carson
Businesswoman Carly Fiorina
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney
Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee
Fmr. Governor Rick Perry
Fmr. Governor George Pataki
Governor Scott Walker
Governor Chris Christie
Senator Rand Paul
Governor Bobby Jindal
Senator Ted Cruz
Senator Marco Rubio

Initial Democratic list of candidates:
Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton
Fmr. Senator Jim Webb
Senator Bernie Sanders
Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley

Some of the biggest early campaign developments were the sudden entrances of Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio, whom many thought would decline runs, as well as the early departures of Bobby Jindal and George Pataki. On the Republican side, the following dropped out before the Iowa Caucus:

Bobby Jindal (endorsed Huckabee)
Carly Fiorina (didn't endorse)
Ben Carson (endorsed Cruz)
George Pataki (endorsed Christie)

After the early primaries, candidates dropped out one by one until only Scott Walker, Mitt Romney, and Rand Paul remained. Several candidates, such as Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, stepped aside after poor showings in order to avoid splitting the vote in favor of very conservate candidates. Other candidates, like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Mike Huckabee, merely fizzled out until it became mathematically impossible for them to win. It turned out that third time was not the charm for Romney, and he dropped out as the party coalesced behind Walker, who became the presumptive nominee after a few more primaries against Paul. It is important to note that Rubio and Paul both dropped out early enough that they were still able to run for their state's senate primaries.

Blue = Scott Walker
Dark Red = Rand Paul
Green = Mitt Romney
Pink = Mike Huckabee

On the Democratic side, the primaries were almost as uneventful as the 2000 Democratic primaries between Gore and Bradley. Although Clinton faced spirited campaigns from all three of her competitors, she was able to win by landslide margins in nearly every state. While Webb's, O'Malley's, and Sanders' home states of Vermont, Virginia, and Maryland were decided by much closer margins, Clinton was still able to carry all three comfortably. Webb and O'Malley dropped out relatively early following weak showings, but Sanders stayed in the race up until the convention, eventually joining his fellow Democrats in endorsing Clinton.

Red = Clinton

[The Other Castro]

A look back at the 2016 campaign...(Part 2)

Notable Events:

June

Walker VP shortlist leaked:
Rubio
Portman
Ayotte
Bush
Paul
Fiorina
Martinez

Clinton VP shortlist leaked:
Heinrich
Castro
Kaine
Hickenlooper
Booker
Warner
Schatz

July

The Republican National Convention is held in Cleveland, Ohio to nominate Scott Walker for President and Kelly Ayotte for Vice President. Despite the smoothness of the convention and prominent party unity, the RNC is rated as somewhat boring and not very inspiring. Walker gave what many considered a lackluster acceptance speech, focusing mainly on his opponent's age and attempt at playing the gender card. The highlight of the convention is a passionate speech about the inclusiveness of the Republican Party and the longevity of the American dream by Keynote Speaker Congresswoman Mia Love, which some noted as a parallel to then State Senator Barack Obama's keynote speech at the 2004 DNC.

Later that month, the Democratic Convention is held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to nominate Hillary Clinton for President and Julian Castro for Vice President. Surprisingly, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy was chosen to give the Keynote Speech, in which he layed out a vision for the future of the Democratic Party and how a President Clinton can lead that transition. Clinton's acceptance speech, while not as exciting as Obama's 2008 acceptance speech, was still lauded for its optimism and positive message, specifically its focus on the improving economy. Notably absent from the convention was Former President Bill Clinton, who was recovering from a hernia the week before and instead addressed the convention by a video message.

September

The first presidential debate is held at The George Washington University between Clinton and Walker. This debate focused on economic issues, and Clinton was able to take full advantage of the strong state of the economy and clinch the debate in a resounding victory over Walker.

October

The second presidential debate is held at the University of Michigan. This debate focused on domestic policy, and was considered mostly a draw as Clinton and Walker both got across their fair share of effective zingers and talking points.

The first vice presidential debate is held at Indiana University between Castro and Ayotte. The debate covered a wide range of topics, including the economy, foreign policy, the nationwide legalization of same-sex marriage earlier that year, and the candidate's qualifications for being able to serve as President if need be. While Ayotte was noted for her constant attacking of Clinton for most of the debate, Castro exceded expectations in the foreign policy category and came across as generally presidential throughout the debate.

A massive snowstorm hits in mid October, blanketing much of the Northeast and especially Massachusetts. A third debate focusing on foreign policy had been in the works, but both campaigns decided to forgo it due to the storm. Thankfully, the snow leads to very few casualties and much less property damage than expected, and Governor Charlie Baker is praised for his devoted response to the the storm.

A major October surprise occurs as a tape from Scott Walker's rehearsal for the Al Smith dinner leaks late in the month. In the tape, Walker is heard joking about potential one liners for the dinner, and at one point says "Do we really want a Madam President? I mean, c'mon. We'll be nuking a random country around the same time every month." Walker faces immediate accusations of sexism, and responds to the situation by explaining how it was meant only to be a private joke and apologizes to "anyone who may have been offended by it." Clinton was leading by a comfortable margin at the time, though this gaffe all but assured her of victory on Election Day.

November

After a relatively boring campaign by some standards, with few gaffes by both sides except for the notable Walker joke, voters backed the status quo and Clinton defeated Walker by nearly a 6 point margin in the popular vote.

In addition to the Presidency, Democrats picked up 7 seats in the Senate to retake control 53-47. Democrats also scored large victories in the House and gained a net of 26 seats, but were unable to take control and stayed in the minority 221-214.

[The Other Castro]

The Clinton Administration 2017-

(note: I'm mainly focusing on election details, I'm not as interested in writing entire posts about the economy and all that jazz)

After taking office, President Clinton made several surprise appointments to her cabinet, such as former competitor Jim Webb for the position of Secretary of Defense and Anne-Marie Slaughter for Secretary of State. Some holdovers from the Obama administration included Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Secretary of Health and Human Services Sylvia Burwell.

Following the 2016 elections, Speaker John Boehner announces that it would be his last term in Congress and that he will not run for reelection to the speakership. For the first time since 2004, a new Republican would be elected for the position. Though several Republicans initially threw their hats into the ring, support coalesced behind two finalists: Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Rodgers was able to successfully peel away McCarthy's support until he dropped out of the running, allowing Rodgers to beat Minority Leader Steny Hoyer (Pelosi had stepped down).

In September, Governor Chris Christie is implicated in yet another corruption charge, and this time is indicted for recieving improper gifts (baseball tickets) in exchange for the services of his office. Although he denies involvement or knowledge of any kind, he resigns shortly afterwards when the legislature threatens to bring up impeachment proceedings. Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno ascends to the governorship. Following Christie's resignation, Congressman Rush Holt's lead over Former Mayor Steve Lonegan grows from a moderate lead to a wide one.

Meanwhile, in Virginia, an initially competitive race shapes into a probable Democratic hold as  Attorney General Mark Herring develops a slight but consistent lead over State Senator Frank Wagner. Many Republicans had hoped that Ed Gillespie would run after his close loss in 2014, but he declined to the dissapointment of Republicans and Politico-readers everywhere.

2017 Gubernatorial Elections: D+1, Republicans retain majority 30-19-1

NJ - 54% Holt, 44% Lonegan (D Pickup)
VA - 51% Herring, 46% Wagner (D Hold)