Are any Democratic incumbents in danger of losing primaries?
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  Are any Democratic incumbents in danger of losing primaries?
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Author Topic: Are any Democratic incumbents in danger of losing primaries?  (Read 1180 times)
Mister Mets
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« on: January 18, 2015, 11:12:23 PM »

It seems to me that there are two responses Democrats have to the tea party and challenges to Republican incumbents. Some gloat, comparing their party favorably to the GOP. And others wish they had an a similar alternative to the establishment.

My guess is that Democrats have largely avoided these kinds of fights because their party has the White House, and that provides an incentive for unity. By the time 2018 comes around, things could be different. Republicans may have the White House, or the left might be tired of three terms of the presidency. That's an environment for potential primary challenges.

So, would any Democratic members of Congress be in danger of losing their jobs? If so, which ones?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2015, 11:23:49 PM »

By the time 2018 comes around, things could be different. Republicans may have the White House

As my HS physics teacher always said: Keep Drrrrrreaming!

I will be too, but I don't expect it.
Who would be though?
Feinstein: Too much of an institution in CA politics plus the top 2 jungle despite her authoritarian streak.
Nelson: Bench too weak
Donnelly: Nah, Dems will be happy to have him
McCaskill: Maybe?
Heitkamp: They'll be happy to have her
Tester: Schweitzer could look at this but more likely in retirement than to challenge
Casey: Too big a name in PA
Manchin: May be governor and no one else can win

So McCaskill and maybe Tester. I highly doubt the Democrats will have very much infighting. There's less ideological purity since the far left is just so out of the American mainstream while the far right is almost a part of the American mainstream ideologies. Plus the Republicans seem to have far more factions. The Democrats have a lot of conflicting points of debate as well, but they are relatively insignificant aside from the NSA (and maybe union vs. environment) and never get brought up because people don't think much about them.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2015, 11:26:55 PM »

No democratic senate incumbent will be vulnerable to a primary unless they get in a big scandal.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2015, 11:27:34 PM »

Nope. Maybe Feinstein since ambitious Democrats may be peeved if she doesn't retire, but even that's a stretch.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2015, 11:28:56 PM »

Tom Carper is the best possibility, but he's too much of an institution in the state to be too vulnerable.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2015, 11:33:32 PM »

No, but I can't think of any Republicans that would be vulnerable either (besides McCain and Murkowski)
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2015, 12:09:24 AM »

Looking at the 2018 field, most Democrats are safe. Either they're running in conservative states where competitiveness is key (North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, etc) or they have records and backgrounds that shold make the base happy (Connecticut, Wisconsin, Hawaii, etc.)

I don't see Feinstein running again. She generally seems very respected, and has been pushing back against CIA overreach in public ways, so she'd seem safe. On the other hand, California has a big bench, the jungle primary system allows for unpredictable results, and the last decade has seen major losses by older incumbents (Ted Stevens, Bob Bennet, Richard Lugar, Arlen Spector, Ralph Hall, Neil Abercrombie) and one Democrat get forced out before he can retire (Frank Lautenberg.)

Delaware fits the profile of a potential upset. It's a smaller state, so it's easier to compete, and it's reliably Democratic, so there isn't a major concern about losing the General Election. It also has a large percentage of African-American primary voters (28% in the 2008 presidential primary) which can give some insurgent candidates a base of support.

Ben Cardin in Maryland might have trouble, given his age and narrow win over Kweisi Mfume in the 2006 open primary. But he's one of the most liberal members of the Senate, so he's tough to attack from the left.

Casey Jr in Pennsylvania disagrees with his party on a major issue, so that leaves an opening in a state with a lot of liberals.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2015, 12:58:44 AM »

No. In all of the 2014 cycle only a single Democrat, in the House, lost a primary (John Tierney to Seth Moulton). Brian Schatz was threatened, but that was because he was appointed Senator by a ludicrously unpopular Governor, and he still prevailed. The only possibility I can think of for 2016 is I remember there was a movement in 2013 among the netroots (at Daily Kos, at least) to recruit a primary challenger against Jim Cooper, since he votes far to the right of his Nashville district (probably afraid of it getting split up come 2022...). But other than that I can't think of anything.
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pikachu
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2015, 01:32:10 AM »

A few years ago, there was some speculation that Booker would try to take out Menendez (and Booker did try to take out Lautenburg, but then he died). I wouldn't be surprised if another ambitious Democrat popular with both voters and the machines tries to do it one day (of course, there are no Democrats who currently fulfill that criteria).
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2015, 10:36:44 PM »

No, none that I can think of. Most senate Democrats are either liked by the establishment, or running in states where a primary challenge would all but guarantee a Republican victory.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2015, 08:41:40 PM »

what about Louise Slaughter and Sandy Levin. Its not uncommon for someone considered to be too old, to get primaried.
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