Describe a Potential Romney 2012/Hillary 2016 Voter

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming that Romney runs again against Hillary:

1. Moderate Republican women

2. Racists who otherwise lean left

3. Relatively poor conservatives who gained health insurance through Obamacare

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

5. If the economy continues to improve, people who were unemployed and found the job they wanted between 2012 and 2016

6. Doves who assume that a woman president will be inherently less violent

I think the ones to watch are #1, #3 and #6, the last one particularly if Paul runs and loses.

[IceSpear]

I don't think it's so much Republican women that could switch. Barring an explicitly sexist campaign, which to be fair is a possibility judging from comments people such as Priebus make, they'll likely stick with Romney pretty solidly. The real threat is right-leaning/centrist independent women. Most polls show the candidates performing more or less the same as in 2012 among their own party, but with Hillary doing much better than Obama among indies.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

1. People who fill in random circles on Election Day.

2. Race-obsessed southerners.

3. Gender obsessed women.

Especially two and three.

[Maxwell]

1. People who think Romney 2016 is a joke.

[Intell]

A Hillary Clinton supporter in Appalachia.

[morgieb]

1. Independent/centrist women
2. Racists who otherwise lean left.
3. Butthurt Hillary 08 voters (well some of them anyway)
4. Those who feel that the economy is in a good state and are better off than what they were four years ago. (probably less likely than the opposite)

[H. Ross Peron]

A Hillary Clinton supporter in Appalachia.

This basically especially a woman.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary will win some moderate women who voted against Obama in states like OH, PA, FL ect. I fully expect her to at least match Obama's 2008 numbers with white women in those states. She might win a insignificant amount of anti-Obama Appalachians, but she's not flipping a single county in the upper south.

[Mister Mets]

Racists who don't care all that much for Mormons either.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Low-information white voter

[TDAS04]

A Hillary Clinton supporter in Appalachia or Ozarkia.

This basically especially a woman.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote so those same people might vote for Hillary against Bush.  Someone like Jim Webb or Brian Schweitzer would make them feel more comfortable doing that though.

[IceSpear]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote

I highly doubt that.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote

I highly doubt that.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/10/how-many-tea-party-supporters-voted-for-obama/

And IIRC several writers for The American Conservative voted both for Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

[IceSpear]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote

I highly doubt that.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/10/how-many-tea-party-supporters-voted-for-obama/

And IIRC several writers for The American Conservative voted both for Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

The problem is that you can pretty much find ~10% of every demographic voting the opposite way you'd expect them to. Apparently there's a lot of confused "very liberals" who consistently vote Republican and "very conservatives" who consistently vote Democratic.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The problem is that you can pretty much find ~10% of every demographic voting the opposite way you'd expect them to.

For example: Black Republicans.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Definitely 1, 2, and 3. I'd add one in the scenario of a Cruz or Walker getting nominated, a rich country club Republican that identifies with Romney but hates the teabaggers.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote

I highly doubt that.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/10/how-many-tea-party-supporters-voted-for-obama/

And IIRC several writers for The American Conservative voted both for Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

Probably because they wanted to go with the more anti-war candidate. Doubtful that they'd vote for Hillary in 2016 especially if the GOP nominated somebody more to there liking.