Challenge: Make Carter win in 1980 or Mccain win in 2008

[OSR stands with Israel]

With everything going as OTL

[The Other Castro]

October 1980: Reagan caught on videotape fornicating with Nixon while admitting that he's secretly a Communist sleeper agent.

October 2008: Obama caught on videotape fornicating with John Edwards while admitting that he's secretly a Muslim Communist sleeper agent.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

With everything going as OTL

I'm not sure why you think we could change the results without changing the circumstances. Are you telling us to go back in time and rig the elections?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Military intervention in Iran

and Bin Laden caught in October 2008, giving Bush the credit he deserved.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

With everything going as OTL

I'm not sure why you think we could change the results without changing the circumstances. Are you telling us to go back in time and rig the elections?

Yeah, for either of those to win, the conditions in which they ran would have to be dramatically different. You could say hostages in Iran released or bin Laden caught, but given the dire state of the economy in both cases, those things most likely just would've made the election closer. Maybe prevented a Republican Senate in 1980 or a Democratic supermajority in 2008...

[dudeabides]

1980:

Hostages released 4 days before the election
Gasoline prices fall to their lowest level in six years

2008:
No financial collapse
John McCain selects Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee as his running-mate

[bobloblaw]

Elections are determined by fundamentals. Those fundamentals were against the Dems in 1980 and GOP in 2008

[Mr. Smith]

Get the Iranian hostage crisis settled, and lock up the debate prep notes better. Carter was narrowly trailing Reagan until that debate.

McCain,...there's nothing for him, may as well ask how to make Warren Harding lose 1920 or give 1928 to Al Smith...there's just nothing there.

[SingingAnalyst]

McCain 2008 was doomed once he picked Sarah Palin, or rather once Tina Fey entered the picture. Had he selected, say, Eric Cantor and Obama or Biden had made some gaffe that the people of ME took personally, I can see this as an extreme outlier:

McCain 270
Obama 268

[SingingAnalyst]

Carter 1980: Maybe if he had ben able to create enough doubt about Reagan, who still was not taken as a serious candidate by many:

Carter 286
Reagan 252

[VPH]

1980:
Reagan dies
Hostages are released
Inflation eases up and gas prices decline
John Anderson declines to run
Democrats coalesce around Carter, and thus Kennedy does not primary him

2008:
No financial collapse
Al Qaeda all but collapses
Obama has a huge scandal
McCain picks Huckabee as VP, and not Palin

[Dancing with Myself]

Carter:

Not debating Reagan. That hurt him a good deal. He might not have won but he wouldn't have lost as much as he did in such a margin.

Democratic party supports him better. Once Kennedy had that awkward moment at the convention it was done because the Kennedy supporters left.

Anderson doesn't run. He hurt Reagan as much but he took a good deal of Carter and Kennedy's voters. In the spring around 1/3rd of the voters for Anderson would have voted for Carter.

Carter/Mondale-276

Reagan/Bush-262


Carter wins thanks to Illinois and Missouri. He's able to hold enough of the South and NY/PA to hold him over. Reagan picks up Ohio, Texas, Florida, but loosing Missouri was what would cost him. Carter wins NC/SC by 1.5%, Al, MS, and LA by a point.

[Dancing with Myself]

McCain:
 
McCain had it rough that year with the conditions he had. About the only way he could have solidily win was without the financial crisis but even then it would be a tossup due to how solid Obama was that year. It would have been a very close PV score for both. I would also make sure he never utters the "fundamental principles of the economy is sound," during when the meltdown was hitting hard. That made him look out of touch and foolish.

Not picking Palin would help him a lot. She motivated the women and the base until she opened her mouth intensely then after that plus the economy going down he was done. Getting Huckabee or Romney or Allen would have been a better choice. As would staying away from Bush as much as possible and attack Obama for both his lack of experience and failures. He hit him good enough but waited until he was loosing to do it relentlessly.  McCain also should have counteracted with his platform and his positions, he didn't do enough of that when it mattered.

McCain/Huckabee- 283

Obama/Biden-255


This is without the financial crisis. It would have been close regardless but the race would have depended on McCain separating himself from Bush and proving Obama wasn't proven enough for the job.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

To everyone saying no financial crisis for McCain to win, there was still a recession even before the financial crisis. I think that the economy would've had to at least been growing (even if not very fast) for McCain to have had a chance. The incumbent party can't win when there's negative growth. Period.

I also think the Dems nominating Hillary would've helped. No, I don't want to hear about Hillary doing better in this or that state. The GOP would've been way more motivated against her than Obama (whom they really didn't start hating until after he had been elected). And unlike Obama, she wouldn't have the advantage of being a "fresh face," which is what many swing voters were looking for.

Finally, Bush would've have needed to get bin Laden.

[DS0816]

October 1980: Reagan caught on videotape fornicating with Nixon while admitting that he's secretly a Communist sleeper agent.

October 2008: Obama caught on videotape fornicating with John Edwards while admitting that he's secretly a Muslim Communist sleeper agent.

Not enough.