Could the GOP Primary end in a brokered convention?

[ClimateDem]

The more I think about all this, the more likely it seems. Jeb Bush has a problem with tea partiers in statistical terms, but has hope of making it up with evangelicals. However, if someone like Huckabee got into the race, he could lock that group up. A tea party darling like Cruz would dominate that swath of the electorate, while Paul would take the libertarian part.

If all these candidates find a consistent niche, could we end in a brokered convention?

[SPC]

No, this was speculated about in 2008 and 2012, but never came into fruition. Eventually attrition and fear of damaging the eventual nominee will force the trailing candidates to lose support and eventually withdraw.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Unlikely. You have to get a scenario with 2-3 competing candidates where no one develops a large delegate or state-win lead. If you only have 2, then you'll also need 1-2 fringe candidates who win a state here and there and don't drop out, ever, but also don't seriously compete.

It's a tough scenario to design. However, to rule it out at this point is ludricious. 

[IceSpear]

I doubt it. Just like an electoral college tie, it's something the pundits endlessly bloviate about every single election, but it never actually happens.

[pbrower2a]

A year and a half before the convention with no obvious front-runner it always looks possible; it just does not happen. The Reactionary Party is much the same whether it is in Upstate New York or rural Mississippi, so quality will matter than will region.  

Personalities will matter more than will ideological differences

[cbannon5]

Would be entertaining, but there's almost no chance of this happening.

[Mister Mets]

It's not likely, but it's possible.

The odds for it may be better than in previous elections. We have the right ingredients for it, as multiple factions have different candidates. Libertarians have Rand Paul. Fiscally moderate social conservatives might have Huckabee. The establishment/ business wing may have their guy (be it Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, John Kasich or whoever.) The "Republicans should be more conservative" crowd has Huckabee.

With candidates who have the potential to get a chunk of the vote in late primaries, it's possible that any Republican would be prevented from getting 50 percent of the delegates.

[Angel of Death]

I concur with the previous posters. Especially with all the winner-takes-all states, you'll need a credible geographically polarized race between at least three near-equals for a non-negligible chance at a deadlock.

[Mister Mets]

I concur with the previous posters. Especially with all the winner-takes-all states, you'll need a credible geographically polarized race between at least three near-equals for a non-negligible chance at a deadlock.

There could be other circumstances, including a race between two near-equals with a spoiler.

So imagine Hillary VS Obama with a third candidate getting 15 percent.

[Blair]

Would need to be a three horse race where all three could take the Presidency, for example Paul, Cruz and Christie but even then I can imagine Paul+Cruz working together under the banner of the tea party.

The primaries go on for so long as well even competitive candidates have to give up in late may/June. Clinton had a chance in 2008 but by late may the press and allies were telling her to pack up gracefully. Most candidates seem to lose the will to fight-or the money.

Would be interesting though

[ShadowRocket]

No. I expect one candidate to start to build a lead early on, and while one or two challengers may win some contests and drag the primaries on a bit, the frontrunner will eventually win. 

[Mister Mets]

Sean Trende thinks it's a distinct possibility.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/01/29/what_if_no_one_wins_the_gop_presidential_nomination_125426.html

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Allahpundit of Hotair gloats about it, and considers the implications.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/01/29/lets-face-it-were-headed-for-a-brokered-gop-convention/

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[Mr. Morden]

No:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-23/brokered-convention-s-not-going-to-happen

[Orser67]

It's unlikely but I don't think it's impossible or implausible. As we saw with Sheldon Adelson in 2012, all it takes is one rich donor with a pet issue to fund a candidate's campaign. In such a context, the "drop out after 5th place" scenario isn't quite as inevitable as it was. That, and it wouldn't surprise me if there's a lot of factionalization among Republicans in 2016.

[spacecoyote]

I don't know about brokered but I could see a VERY long campaign.

[Fritz]

This is going to be a virtual replay of the 2012 GOP primary, with Jeb Bush playing the role of Mitt Romney, and the rest of the field all vying to be the "anti-Bush".  We'll probably have flavors of the month, just like last time.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not going to happen.

[pbrower2a]

It always looks likely early before three or more apparently-strong potential nominees sort it out and becomes irrelevant late.

[heatmaster]

Can't imagine it happening, you look at the field; I think by Super Tuesday the Republicans will have settled on their prospective nominee, my bet it will be very likely Jeb, and from then onwards till a week before the convention, Bush will be conducting tours through the electoral battlegrounds, with various Vice Presidential nominee's (look out for Haley or Graham of South Carolina, Sandoval of Nevada, Portman of Ohio, Cotton of Arkansas, Ernst of Iowa or Martinez of New Mexico). Meanwhile the Democrats will have settled on Clinton and she will be doing campaign trip interviews, very much like Jeb is doing. The DNC will still be going from Columbus, New York City and Philadelphia still trying to make a decision on where to go for three days in July. All three cities, will be very tired indeed with the incessant entertaining, wining and dining. The DNC will finally decide to allow all three cities to host the convention. They will go in reverse alphabetic order, Philadelphia doing the honors for the first night, then the show will move next door to New York City for the second and third night, and Columbus will host the acceptance speeches by both presidential and vice presidential nominee's. The novelty of having all three cities do the honor, will give Hillary a modest bump going into August. However the effects of any advantage Hillary might have enjoyed, will be squandered by revelations concerning Bill's post presidential activities - her possible knowledge and attempts at a cover up, new revelations over the Benghazi affair and the Rio Olympics. The debates will give Jeb Bush and attempts by both the Clinton campaign and DNC to tie Jeb Bush to the policies of his brother, will backfire and give Bush the advantage going into election day. Florida and Ohio go for Bush, then Pennsylvania along with Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada go for Bush, making him the third member of the same family to win the White House in a generation. There is a bitter irony for Obama, he like Bill Clinton will have a presidency sandwiched by an individual called Bush.

[bobloblaw]

This is going to be a virtual replay of the 2012 GOP primary, with Jeb Bush playing the role of Mitt Romney, and the rest of the field all vying to be the "anti-Bush".  We'll probably have flavors of the month, just like last time.

Except Bush is more disliked by the grass roots than Romney was and ther flavor of the month in this promary season are real candidates, unlike Bachman and Herman Cain

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If the moderates accept VP and let the tea party have the crack at the big boy chair the next few go rounds.

[Beet]

No because the GOP has winner take all contests.

[Mr. Morden]

No because the GOP has winner take all contests.

I think there are only about five states that use statewide WTA delegate allocation.  But point taken, most states do use something closer to WTA (like WTA by congressional district) than the proportional system used by the Dems.