Kerry to open a "South Western Front" ... ?

[The Vorlon]

It seems pretty clear that there will be a northern front in the war of 2004

Wisconsisn, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Iowa.

Bush would like to add MIchigan to that list, Kerry would like to add Missouri.

Who thinks Kerry will launch a second front to try for any/all of the following:

Arizona / Colorado / New Mexico / Nevada.

A Key element in all this may be money.

Both Kerry and Bush will be spending the $75,000,000 (or so) in Federal money for their fall campaigns, however due to the timing of the conventions, Kerry will have to make his money last from late July to election day, while Bush only from Early September till election day.

Given the Bush has more money, (soft, hard, liquid, all types) I think Kerry may wish to avoid a larger war where, presumably, the Bush cash advantage would put him at a disadvantage.

Does anybody have any idea how much money "MoveON" and "MediaFund" etc actually have?

This may be an important factor if Kerry wants a "southwestern" front..?

Thoughts, ideas...?

[angus]

It seems pretty clear that there will be a northern front in the war of 2004

Wisconsisn, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Iowa.

Bush would like to ad MIchigan to that list, Kerry would like to add Missouri.

Who thinks Kerry will launch a second front to try for any/all of the following:

Arizona / Colorado / New Mexico / Nevada.

A Key element in all this may be money.

Both Kerry and Bush will be spending the $75,000,000 (or so) in Federal money for their fall campaigns, however due to the timing of the conventions, Kerry will have to make his money last from late July to election day, while Bush only from Early September till election day.

Given the Bush has more money, I think Kerry may wish to avaoid a larger war where, presumably, the Bush cash advantage would put him at a disadvantage.

Does anybody have any idea how much money "MoveON" and "MediaFund" etc actually have?

This may be an important factor if Kerry wants a "southwestern" front..?

Thoughts, ideas...?

That's pretty much the Kerry geopolitical battle plan.  I'd also include a budget for maintaining Minnesota.   I'd suggest he save the florida money and be prepared to sink that into California in response to Bush already bringing out the ads.  

Bush will no doubt add Michigan to that list, assuming the coffers allow.  Kerry will be unable to spend much time or money in Missouri.  He should avoid wasting money in Arizona and Colorado as well.  Nevada is Bush country, like most of the state of California (all of it, in fact, except the parts where people actually live.)

Ideas?  For Kerry, hang on to what Gore won last time, and try to go after Ohio, West Virginia, and New Hampshire.  For Bush, just hang on, lose WV and NH if necessary because a 269 tie will ensure a Bush victory as well.

[zachman]

I'd go for Florida if I were Kerry.

[The Vorlon]

My "guess" is that Kerry will NOT go after Florida this time.

Brother Jeb is real popular (Re-elected 13+%) and Florida damn near bankrupted Gore in 2000.

Gore only lost Ohio by 3.5%, and that was despite pulling out the media money 4 weeks out to keep up the war in Florida.

Just beacuse Penn/Ohio/WV/Michigan are all goegraphically together it makes sense to fight one war (in terms of media "spillage") than 2 or 3.

I doubt Kerry spends any money in California (or just enough to keep his doners happy ... ie spend $1 to raise $2 type of thing)

Can't quite make up my mind on Minnesota, wish there was a really good solid poll out of their from somebody we could trust...

[Lunar]

Kerry will at least feint in those areas, probe the Bush campaign's reactions to him beginning to spend a few dollars.  Perhaps he'll dig further to try and project what increased spending would do to his numbers.

I think Florida is Bush's this time around.   If you look at "potential" you can see that Ohio has a lot more pro-Democratic potential over 2000 than Florida, which seemed to be maxed out.

[The Vorlon]

Kerry will at least feint in those areas, probe the Bush campaign's reactions to him beginning to spend a few dollars and perhaps dig further to try and project what increased spending would do to his numbers.

There will be lots of "phony wars" in 2004

Bush will likely fake a run at Washington & Oregon, maybe Maine.  Kerry might pretend in Tennessee for a while.

I just don;t think Kerry can afford to go toe to toe in Florida, I think he can get better bang for his buck elsewhere (read Ohio)

[classical liberal]

The Dems don't need too much officially collected cash.  George Soros is backing a liberal anti-Bush media non-profit.  Being the multi-billionaire that he is, he has more than enough money to counteract much of Bush's warchest.  Add that to the fact that even with 1/4 of the massive warchest expended in the first quarter of this year, Bush is still dead even, maybe a bit below Kerry.  Bush has roughly 75 million more than Kerry at this point.  Liberal groups can easily make up the difference.

Plus with the Catholic Voting Record Rating that House Democrats are making, the fact that Dems are more in line with the Church than the GOP may shatter the GOP's bloc of voter they use.  However the Dems' bloc of voters they use, minorities, are not being courted nearly as well.

The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.  I expect that when the Dems start their major ad campaign, the bottom of our warchest may be exposed too soon.

[angus]

I went back to Ohio but my pretty countryside
had been paved down the middle by a government that had no pride.
The farms of Ohio had been replaced by shopping malls
and Muzak filled the air from Seneca to Cuyahoga Falls.
Hey, ho, where'd you go, Ohio?

--The Pretenders

[angus]

Plus with the Catholic Voting Record Rating that House Democrats are making, the fact that Dems are more in line with the Church than the GOP may shatter the GOP's bloc of voter they use.  However the Dems' bloc of voters they use, minorities, are not being courted nearly as well.

Catholics were traditionally a block.  But the GOP has been making inroads with that group.  In 1996, for the first time ever, more catholics voted for a republican than a democrat for President.  In 2000, this very slight lead was increased.  But 53% certainly doesn't make a block.  I don't know anyone who calls catholics a block the way they do, say, blacks or teachers or military officers.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.

I don't know how you concluded that.  The economic undercurrents are soo strong right now that the economy is going to be a huge plus for Bush come Nov.  In fact, by this time next month (May) Bush's approval rating on the economy will be sharply higher.

Iraq is Bush's only concern, and the US will use the firepower needed to crush the uprising.

[The Vorlon]

The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.

I don't know how you concluded that.  The economic undercurrents are soo strong right now that the economy is going to be a huge plus for Bush come Nov.  In fact, by this time next month (May) Bush's approval rating on the economy will be sharply higher.

Iraq is Bush's only concern, and the US will use the firepower needed to crush the uprising.

In Iraq, I would vote for massive, crushing, overwhelming military power.

This half way stuff is not wise.

Win, or leave.

Those are the only two sane positions, everything else is doomed to fail.

[© tweed]

Kerry needs to focus on the southwest and the midwest.  But, his VP choice will probably tell us which way he's leaning: if it's Gephardt, Edwards, or Vilsack, he's aming towards the midwest; if it's Richardson, he's after the southwest.

Ohio and West Virginia are two key states, and if you park edwards there for 4 or 5 months, I am confident he will deliver them.

[classical liberal]

The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.

I don't know how you concluded that.  The economic undercurrents are soo strong right now that the economy is going to be a huge plus for Bush come Nov.  In fact, by this time next month (May) Bush's approval rating on the economy will be sharply higher.

Iraq is Bush's only concern, and the US will use the firepower needed to crush the uprising.

Look at our expenditures vs Liberal expenditures.  We've spent like twice what they have and even so Kerry has a slight lead in many polls.  From this I conclude that without said expenditures Kerry would be significantly ahead right now.  What happense in May will happen in May, but I was referring to the present month of April.

[classical liberal]

The warchest that was supposed to guarranty a Bush landslide seems to be the only thing holding back a Kerry landslide at this point.

I don't know how you concluded that.  The economic undercurrents are soo strong right now that the economy is going to be a huge plus for Bush come Nov.  In fact, by this time next month (May) Bush's approval rating on the economy will be sharply higher.

Iraq is Bush's only concern, and the US will use the firepower needed to crush the uprising.

In Iraq, I would vote for massive, crushing, overwhelming military power.

This half way stuff is not wise.

Win, or leave.

Those are the only two sane positions, everything else is doomed to fail.

I concur, this half-assedness must end.  We should mobilize our entire military, send half of it into the triangle, station a few soldiers every two-hundred feet, and order them to shoot insurgents on sight.  We should take the second half and seize the Syrian treasury and the Iranian treasury so those countries can't hire any more insurgent mercenaries.  The entire process would take a total of two months and we could meet thepower exchange deadline.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

What happense in May will happen in May, but I was referring to the present month of April.

ok, i understand now.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kerry needs to focus on the southwest and the midwest.  But, his VP choice will probably tell us which way he's leaning: if it's Gephardt, Edwards, or Vilsack, he's aming towards the midwest; if it's Richardson, he's after the southwest.

Ohio and West Virginia are two key states, and if you park edwards there for 4 or 5 months, I am confident he will deliver them.

I've been saying that about Edwards ever since Kerry won the nomination.  He can bounce back and forth between Ohio, WV, and PA.  Send him down for a quick swing thru VA and NC to get an idea of their chances there.  Maybe have him spend a couple days in MO.  Move him over to lock-up IA, WI, and MN in the last days of the campaign.

I'm telling you, Mr.Sunshine could work wonders in the midwest and upper south.  

[ilikeverin]

Kerry needs to focus on the southwest and the midwest.  But, his VP choice will probably tell us which way he's leaning: if it's Gephardt, Edwards, or Vilsack, he's aming towards the midwest; if it's Richardson, he's after the southwest.

Ohio and West Virginia are two key states, and if you park edwards there for 4 or 5 months, I am confident he will deliver them.

I've been saying that about Edwards ever since Kerry won the nomination.  He can bounce back and forth between Ohio, WV, and PA.  Send him down for a quick swing thru VA and NC to get an idea of their chances there.  Maybe have him spend a couple days in MO.  Move him over to lock-up IA, WI, and MN in the last days of the campaign.

I'm telling you, Mr.Sunshine could work wonders in the midwest and upper south.  

I could see MN liking him.  But that's just me

[opebo]

A southwestern strategy is a waste of time for Kerry.  He hasn't got much chance in any SW state exept for New Mexico.  However he does have a fair chance in OH, PA, and WV.  Also he'd better worry about keeping IA/WS/MN.

[© tweed]

Kerry needs to focus on the southwest and the midwest.  But, his VP choice will probably tell us which way he's leaning: if it's Gephardt, Edwards, or Vilsack, he's aming towards the midwest; if it's Richardson, he's after the southwest.

Ohio and West Virginia are two key states, and if you park edwards there for 4 or 5 months, I am confident he will deliver them.

I've been saying that about Edwards ever since Kerry won the nomination.  He can bounce back and forth between Ohio, WV, and PA.  Send him down for a quick swing thru VA and NC to get an idea of their chances there.  Maybe have him spend a couple days in MO.  Move him over to lock-up IA, WI, and MN in the last days of the campaign.

I'm telling you, Mr.Sunshine could work wonders in the midwest and upper south.  

We should be working for the Kerry campaign

[ilikeverin]

Kerry needs to focus on the southwest and the midwest.  But, his VP choice will probably tell us which way he's leaning: if it's Gephardt, Edwards, or Vilsack, he's aming towards the midwest; if it's Richardson, he's after the southwest.

Ohio and West Virginia are two key states, and if you park edwards there for 4 or 5 months, I am confident he will deliver them.

I've been saying that about Edwards ever since Kerry won the nomination.  He can bounce back and forth between Ohio, WV, and PA.  Send him down for a quick swing thru VA and NC to get an idea of their chances there.  Maybe have him spend a couple days in MO.  Move him over to lock-up IA, WI, and MN in the last days of the campaign.

I'm telling you, Mr.Sunshine could work wonders in the midwest and upper south.  

We should be working for the Kerry campaign

No, we (magically includes myself) should be working for the Edwards campaign, but the American public didn't realize that in time

[Gustaf]

My "guess" is that Kerry will NOT go after Florida this time.

Brother Jeb is real popular (Re-elected 13+%) and Florida damn near bankrupted Gore in 2000.

Gore only lost Ohio by 3.5%, and that was despite pulling out the media money 4 weeks out to keep up the war in Florida.

Just beacuse Penn/Ohio/WV/Michigan are all goegraphically together it makes sense to fight one war (in terms of media "spillage") than 2 or 3.

I doubt Kerry spends any money in California (or just enough to keep his doners happy ... ie spend $1 to raise $2 type of thing)

Can't quite make up my mind on Minnesota, wish there was a really good solid poll out of their from somebody we could trust...

Very good geographical point. I think this is important. Of the weak Gore states, Oregon and New Mexico are too alone and secluded to fight for.

Kerry should go for the Mid-West and focus on WI, OH, PA and WV. New Hampshire is the same as NM and OR. He'll just have to hope for it. I do see Kerry making a play for Florida though, if he doesn't he has very little MoE. I think Kerry is REALLY gonna need Florida to have any chance of winning.

[© tweed]

I think Kerry is REALLY gonna need Florida to have any chance of winning.

No.  Gore-NM+OH=win.

[zachman]

I think Kerry is REALLY gonna need Florida to have any chance of winning.

No.  Gore-NM+OH=win.

Kerry should gamble for Florida because its demographics are different than Pennsylvania and Ohio. It's his safety net against losing Pennsylvania.

[Ben.]

A southwestern strategy is a waste of time for Kerry.  He hasn't got much chance in any SW state exept for New Mexico.  However he does have a fair chance in OH, PA, and WV.  Also he'd better worry about keeping IA/WS/MN.

Exactly added to this a south western strategy at the most nets you 20 electoral votes, and you have to win every Gore state as well… OH will be a more competitive State than AZ and works far more to Kerry’s (and Edwards’) strengths… I really don’t understand this obsession amongst some democrats over the south west, sure in a few years when the population in these states has grown and the importance of the Midwest has declined but now in 2004 the Midwest and the Steel States are the democratic party’s tickets to the white house not some “no room for error and on a wing and a prayer in places like WI and PA” strategy…wouldn’t put it past Kerry to try and adopt it though… but this strategy has so little to recommend it this November MAYBE… MAYBE next time round but for the love of G** not this November…        

[© tweed]

I think Kerry is REALLY gonna need Florida to have any chance of winning.

No.  Gore-NM+OH=win.

Kerry should gamble for Florida because its demographics are different than Pennsylvania and Ohio. It's his safety net against losing Pennsylvania.

If you ignore Florida, we will win PA.