PA-PPP: Hillary up easily

[Miles]

Article.

Clinton -49%
Christie- 39%

Clinton- 49%
Bush- 38%

Clinton- 51%
Carson- 37%

Clinton- 51%
Huckabee- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Paul- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Clinton- 52%
Santorum- 36%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

[Mehmentum]

To give context to these numbers:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Essentially the same (5 point) margin as the 2012 election in PA.

Which means that Clinton's 10 point lead against Romney is quite enlightening indeed.

[IceSpear]

Dominating! PA is Hillary country.

[IceSpear]

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

If only we had someone to save us from the terrible and overrated Hillary.

[King]

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

If only we had someone to save us from the terrible and overrated Hillary.

It's just name recognition, IceSpear. Once people find out who Mitt Romney is, he'll beat Hillary.

[Likely Voter]

As discussed in the other recent PA thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206063.0) the GOP has a big decision to make about how hard to go after PA. If numbers like this hold up, then PA's recent trend does look to be more about Obama's bad fit and the GOP may not want to waste money on a state that hasn't voted GOP for prez since Bush Jr. in 1988.

[dmmidmi]

Democrats have performed at or better than the national average in Pennsylvania in every election beginning in 1952.

If Hildog wins the popular vote, she wins Pennsylvania.

[pbrower2a]

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

If only we had someone to save us from the terrible and overrated Hillary.

It's just name recognition, IceSpear. Once people find out who Mitt Romney is, he'll beat Hillary.

Very funny.

[Devils30]

Racial demographics might be a little too white as well. Hillary probably does slightly better in the Philly suburbs and much better in southwest PA.

[Maxwell]

I like how Rand Paul has far less name recognition and still performing about as well as Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney.

[mattyman]

Article.

Clinton -49%
Christie- 39%

Clinton- 49%
Bush- 38%

Clinton- 51%
Carson- 37%

Clinton- 51%
Huckabee- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Paul- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Clinton- 52%
Santorum- 36%

A moment of silence for the senator from Pennsylvania.

[Mr. Morden]

As discussed in the other recent PA thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206063.0) the GOP has a big decision to make about how hard to go after PA. If numbers like this hold up, then PA's recent trend does look to be more about Obama's bad fit and the GOP may not want to waste money on a state that hasn't voted GOP for prez since Bush Jr. in 1988.

Except that, if you go by the new ABC/WaPo national poll, the margins in PA here are actually lower than they are nationally.

The question isn't which states are close right now, since right now Clinton is far enough ahead that it wouldn't matter where the GOP spent $.  The question is, if Clinton were to lose enough ground nationally that the national race became competitive, which states would be close then?

[Devils30]

You can't compare PPP in one state to a national poll of registered voters from another firm.

[Mr. Morden]

You can't compare PPP in one state to a national poll of registered voters from another firm.

It doesn't matter which poll you pick, the point stands.  Clinton has a significant national lead right now, so you can't say "She's leading by 10 points in this state, so that proves the GOP should ignore it."  She's presumably leading by ~10 points or more in every swing state, because that's how big her national lead is.  It doesn't say anything about whether it should be targeted in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:

Carson 25/16% for +9%
Clinton 47/44% for +3%
Warren 25/26% for -1%
Biden 41/44% for -3%
Huckabee 31/39% for -8%
Paul 31/39% for -8%
Santorum 33/43% for -10%
Romney 34/49% for -15%
Christie 30/48% for -18%
Bush 28/48% for -20%

[Xing]

It's early, but it's not unreasonable to assume that Hillary will do better in Pennsylvania than the nation as a whole, and will win Pennsylvania (though probably not by double digits) in a close race.

[pbrower2a]

Article.

Clinton -49%
Christie- 39%

Clinton- 49%
Bush- 38%

Clinton- 51%
Carson- 37%

Clinton- 51%
Huckabee- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Paul- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Clinton- 52%
Santorum- 36%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

The Favorite Son effect does not work to a politician's advantage if he is seen unsympathetically.

[Devils30]

fav/unfav %:

Carson 25/16% for +9%
Clinton 47/44% for +3%
Warren 25/26% for -1%
Biden 41/44% for -3%
Huckabee 31/39% for -8%
Paul 31/39% for -8%
Santorum 33/43% for -10%
Romney 34/49% for -15%
Christie 30/48% for -18%
Bush 28/48% for -20%

That should give the GOP pause about nominating Jeb. Pretty staggering how many are opposed to him just on his name and it's problematic that the donors like him more than the GOPs voters.

[Liberalrocks]

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

If only we had someone to save us from the terrible and overrated Hillary.

It's just name recognition, IceSpear. Once people find out who Mitt Romney is, he'll beat Hillary.

Very funny.

[DS0816]

Democrats have performed at or better than the national average in Pennsylvania in every election beginning in 1952.

If Hildog wins the popular vote, she wins Pennsylvania.

Exactly.

Pennsylvania is a base state for the Democratic Party.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

fav/unfav %:

Carson 25/16% for +9%
Clinton 47/44% for +3%
Warren 25/26% for -1%
Biden 41/44% for -3%
Huckabee 31/39% for -8%
Paul 31/39% for -8%
Santorum 33/43% for -10%
Romney 34/49% for -15%
Christie 30/48% for -18%
Bush 28/48% for -20%

How in the world?

[Maxwell]

fav/unfav %:

Carson 25/16% for +9%
Clinton 47/44% for +3%
Warren 25/26% for -1%
Biden 41/44% for -3%
Huckabee 31/39% for -8%
Paul 31/39% for -8%
Santorum 33/43% for -10%
Romney 34/49% for -15%
Christie 30/48% for -18%
Bush 28/48% for -20%

How in the world?

Easy. Romney was never a popular candidate. His favorables went up solely because of his first debate performance against Obama. They rescinded to reality when that was no longer a factor.

Christie's bridge scandal has caused him to dip severely, because it's changed his image from a governor who spouts common sense to an angry bully. It's not necessarily the scandal, it's the narrative.

And Bush might as well be Huntsman with a bad name.