Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015

[Diouf]

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Perhaps the support party option could come into play to get round the EU problems.

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-finland-poll-leader-open-to-deal-with-eurosceptic-populists-2015-4?IR=T

[Helsinkian]

Advance voting started today and will continue until 14 April. The turnout on the first day of advance voting was roughly similar to the one four years ago: 4.6% of eligible voters cast their vote today compared to 4.2% four years ago.

A high turnout is necessary for the success of the Finns Party and the Social Democrats. The National Coalition Party and the Swedish People's Party are parties that would benefit from a low turnout.

The National Broadcasting Company YLE is going to interview every chairperson of the parliamentary parties so you can watch and read the this far ready ones from here:

Soini(Finns Party): I'm surprised more immigrants don't come to Finland

Haglund( Swedish People's Party): More immigrants, but no referendum on joining Nato yet

Arhinmäki(Left Alliance): Pro-immigration principles and anti-austerity views

Greens' Niinistö: Other parties stuck in the 70s

Here are the rest:

Stubb: Finland will make a comeback - and so will I
Centre’s Sipilä liberal on work-based immigration, on-the-job English
Rinne: Fair play in labour market and 'trust issues' with PM's party
Räsänen: Fighting to stop gay marriage and jihadism, but pro-immigration

[mubar]

Advance voting started today.

After first day of advance voting, already 4,6% of Finnish citizens living in Finland have voted. When including those who voted today in Finnish embassies and consulates abroad, it means that over 200 000 votes have already been given. You can follow the daily progress during the whole advance voting period (8.4. - 14.4.) in Ministry of Justice site.

According to Yle, this year the first day of advance voting was more active than in previous elections. They'll be tracking the turnout daily, here's the first (in Finnish). Yle also has a short piece on advance voting in English.

[Zanas]

Advance voting started today.

After first day of advance voting, already 4,6% of Finnish citizens living in Finland have voted. When including those who voted today in Finnish embassies and consulates abroad, it means that over 200 000 votes have already been given. You can follow the daily progress during the whole advance voting period (8.4. - 14.4.) in Ministry of Justice site.

According to Yle, this year the first day of advance voting was more active than in previous elections. They'll be tracking the turnout daily, here's the first (in Finnish). Yle also has a short piece on advance voting in English.

Who is the one man who was allowed to vote on April 1st ? April's fool ?

[Helsinkian]

Who is the one man who was allowed to vote on April 1st ? April's fool ?

Sailors, who are away on sea during both the advance voting period and the election day, were allowed to vote starting 1 April. So that man must be in that category. There might also be other sailors, who voted overseas, since these statistics only include votes cast in Finland.

Edit: that figure has been updated to 106.

[Helsinkian]

Finns Party MP Mika Raatikainen had invited Lars Vilks to participate in a discussion event on the topic of free speech next week in the parliament's annex building. However, the parliament's General Secretary has cancelled that event due to security concerns (Raatikainen blames the Social Democratic Speaker). Raatikainen has said that he will attempt to organise the event at another location, but we shall see.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/parliament_cancels_mohammed_cartoonist_visit/7920357

[Lasitten]

National Coalition party is scaring the voters of the "greek way" in their election posters.


Finland has three possible ways. Let's go through work.

On the left:
The Greek way
subsisting

On the right:
Work

[Peter the Lefty]

I realize this is a very complex question, but economically speaking, what exactly is KESK running on? 

[Helsinkian]

I realize this is a very complex question, but economically speaking, what exactly is KESK running on?  

In their election platform we can see following things:

• Cut 2 billion € in spending (this is three times less than what the NCP is proposing), balance the budget in 6 or 7 years
• Creating 200,000 new private sector jobs (somehow...), lengthening careers
• On taxes their stance is a bit vague, but they are saying that in general taxes should not be raised and that taxes should be less burdensome to small businesses
• Selling state owned property and using the money from that to stimulate businesses
• Cutting bureaucracy in the public sector (but they're pretty vague here)
• Introducing basic income in some regions on an experimental basis
• Removing obstacles from work-based immigration from countries outside the EU

They have actually translated their election platform into English: http://www.keskusta.fi/Suomeksi/Eduskuntavaalit/Centre-Party-Election-Platform

[Helsinkian]

Opinion poll by Tietoykkönen/Iltalehti:

Centre Party 23.5%
Social Democrats 17.0%
Finns Party 16.6%
National Coalition Party 16.2%
Left Alliance 8.4%
Green League 8.1%
Swedish People's Party 4.3%
Christian Democrats 4.1%
Others 1.8%

We can expect another two opinion polls before the election day, from YLE and Helsingin Sanomat.

If this poll result is credible, it looks like Alexander Stubb might repeat in the NCP what Mari Kiviniemi achieved as Centre Party leader the last time: taking their party from the number 1 spot to fourth place.

[Helsinkian]

The Centre Party wants to give give more power to the Finnish regions by establishing elected regional councils, which would have the right to tax and make decisions on healthcare, for example. In the current situation the regions are little more than statistical units, while most of local government happens on the municipal level.

[Gustaf]

The Centre Party wants to give give more power to the Finnish regions by establishing elected regional councils, which would have the right to tax and make decisions on healthcare, for example. In the current situation the regions are little more than statistical units, while most of local government happens on the municipal level.

Lol why. That's like our landsting. Not really a success story.

[Double Carpet]

If anyone would like to play, the free-to-enter election game for Finland is available at:

electiongame.co.uk/finland/

Entries close at 12 noon UK time next Sunday.

Many thanks,

DC

[Helsinkian]

The Centre Party wants to give give more power to the Finnish regions by establishing elected regional councils, which would have the right to tax and make decisions on healthcare, for example. In the current situation the regions are little more than statistical units, while most of local government happens on the municipal level.

Lol why. That's like our landsting. Not really a success story.

Power is a big reason. There are 18 regions in continental Finland (not counting Åland, that is), and if they were to have elected councils, Centre Party would probably become the biggest party in 10 of the 18 regional councils.

[Helsinkian]

Social Democrats are being criticized for hypocrisy: in their election pamphlets they are calling for the creation of 100,000 new Finnish jobs, yet it turns out those pamphlets were printed in Estonia, not in Finland.

[Helsinkian]

TNS Gallup/Helsingin Sanomat poll:

Centre Party 23.0%
National Coalition Party 17.0%
Social Democrats 17.0%
Finns Party 16.2%
Left Alliance 8.5%
Green League 8.1%
Swedish People's Party 4.6%
Christian Democrats 3.7%
Others 1.9%

[Helsinkian]

Advance voting ends with a slightly higher turnout than in 2011: 31.9% of eligble voters in Finland have now voted, whereas four years ago that figure was 31.2%.

[Lasitten]

If the young people (under 18) would decide the parliament would look like this:


Especially the result looks really bad for the Social Democrats. And to be honest I am really suprised how badly Left Alliance scored. The voting was organised by Allianssi which is a national organisation of NGOs which deal with young people. There was 59403 given votes in 630 schools.

And the candidate with number 69 would be elected in every district except Lapland

VOTES:
KOK 19.16%
KESK 17.06%
VIHR 12.97%
PS 12.24%
SDP 8.67%
KD  6.49%
VAS  5.81%
RKP  4.68%
PIR 4.49%
ITSP   2.62%
SKP 2.04%
M11  1.93%

[EDIT] YLE news: http://yle.fi/uutiset/how_would_parliament_look_if_children_got_to_choose/7930656

[Helsinkian]

Last opinion poll before election day, by Taloustutkimus/YLE:

Centre Party 24.0%
National Coalition Party 16.9%
Finns Party 16.7%
Social Democrats 15.1%
Green League 8.8%
Left Alliance 8.3%
Swedish People's Party 4.6%
Christian Democrats 3.5%
Others 2.0%

[Hifly]

Last opinion poll before election day, by Taloustutkimus/YLE:

Centre Party 24.0%
National Coalition Party 16.9%
Finns Party 16.7%
Social Democrats 15.1%
Green League 8.8%
Left Alliance 8.3%
Swedish People's Party 4.6%
Christian Democrats 3.5%
Others 2.0%

Any particular reason for the drop in SD support? Or is it just a sampling issue you think?

[mubar]

Last opinion poll before election day, by Taloustutkimus/YLE:

Centre Party 24.0%
National Coalition Party 16.9%
Finns Party 16.7%
Social Democrats 15.1%
Green League 8.8%
Left Alliance 8.3%
Swedish People's Party 4.6%
Christian Democrats 3.5%
Others 2.0%

Any particular reason for the drop in SD support? Or is it just a sampling issue you think?

It's worth noting that this Yle poll has been conducted over the last 3 weeks from late March (Yle News article), so it's essentially representing changes in support a few weeks ago. In comparison, the HS poll published on Tuesday was conducted over the 5 advance voting days, so it's much more recent. And the HS poll didn't register any drop for SDP. The main common theme that both of these polls show, was KESK dropping and PS rising.

Yle claims that the social democrats had lost some working class and women as supporters in their latest poll. But it's hard to say why they would have lost among these demographics in March. One possible explanation could be that as the holder of Ministry of Finance, SD is associated with negative economic news that could affect Finland, such as the talks of Greek bankruptcy. But that doesn't seem a particularly convincing theory.

[Zanas]

If this poll were to be Sunday's result, what would the coalition talks look like in your opinion ?

[Helsinkian]

If this poll were to be Sunday's result, what would the coalition talks look like in your opinion ?

If the NCP were indeed so much ahead of the SDP, I believe that Centre would try to form a coalition between themselves, the NCP and the Finns Party. The NCP would want to bring the Swedish People's Party along, but their inclusion would be uncertain because the Finns Party doesn't want them, and because a coalition of three big parties would probably have circa 120 seats between them even without the small parties. In addition, Centre's Juha Sipilä has indicated that he wants to cut the number of ministers down to about 12 (Katainen's cabinet had 19, Stubb's now has 17), though that might not be realistic.

If the SDP ends up above the NCP, then I believe the coalition talks would be between Centre, SDP and the Finns Party. Some have speculated that a coalition of the "old big parties" might be formed consisting of Centre, NCP and SDP (+ possibly the Swedish People's Party), but it has become clear during the last few years that it is currently very difficult for the NCP and the SDP to work together, and the Centre Party sees that as well.

It is of course possible that the Finns Party walks away from the table, if the other parties don't agree to some of their demands. Soini is very much willing to make compromises, but the party's parliamentary group may have a harder stance.

Even if the NCP makes it to the next coalition, I would be sceptical of Alexander Stubb's participation in it. A person who has just served as PM doesn't want to become a lesser minister in a coalition led by another PM. When the SDP's Paavo Lipponen faced such a scenario after the 2003 election, he chose to become the parliament's Speaker instead. Stubb might want to scout himself a job in the EU if and when he loses his position as PM.

As for the content of the talks, several parties have indicated that they would like the government program to be a much shorter paper than it has been in recent times. The program of the Katainen cabinet was 89 pages long, and it was felt that it severely restricted the coalition's actions. Sipilä has talked of a "strategic paper" of only five pages or so, which would set out just some general guidelines.

[Double Carpet]

Last call for the election game -

If anyone would like to play, the free-to-enter election game for Finland is available at:

electiongame.co.uk/finland/

Entries close at 12 noon UK time tomorrow.

Many thanks,

DC

[Nortexius]

My prediction for tomorrows election:

Centre Party: 22%
Finns Party: 19,2%
National Coalition Party: 17,5%
Social Democrats: 16,0%
Left Alliance: 8,2%
Green Party: 6,9%
Swedish Peoples Party: 4,5%
Christian Democrats: 4,2%
Others: 1,5%

Parties in government: Centre, Finns party, NCP and Christian Democrats.