Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015

[EPG]

It's hard to think of a government that doesn't eventually gain a reputation for being out-of-touch. People like to think that there are good solutions that make them personally better-off but the government doesn't care.

[politicus]

It's hard to think of a government that doesn't eventually gain a reputation for being out-of-touch. People like to think that there are good solutions that make them personally better-off but the government doesn't care.

Maybe, but there is a reason Conservative parties are especially prone to aquire  such a reputation.

[EPG]

It's hard to think of a government that doesn't eventually gain a reputation for being out-of-touch. People like to think that there are good solutions that make them personally better-off but the government doesn't care.

Maybe, but there is a reason Conservative parties are especially prone to aquire  such a reputation.

I don't know. I am sure French people say the same thing about Hollande; Americans say it about Obama. I wonder do Danes think it about Thorning-Schmidt?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a particular type of 'out-of-touchness' that conservative parties in government are particularly prone to getting a reputation, unless they're exceedingly careful.

[Helsinkian]

New Statesman has an article about the Finns Party. I can't put up links yet, but you can find it by googling: New Statesman The rise and fall of the far right in Finland.

Edit: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/rise-and-fall-far-right-finland

[Helsinkian]

YLE/Taloustutkimus poll for February:

Centre Party 24.9%
Social Democrats 16.8%
National Coalition Party 16.2%
Finns Party 15.4%
Left Alliance 8.8%
Green League 8.8%
Swedish People's Party 4.0%
Christian Democrats 3.3%
Others 1.8%

[Lasitten]

I am again running for the parliament on Left Alliances' list in Savo-Karjala. Savo-Karjala is a new election election district which incorporates the old North Savonia and North Karelia. The big plus for the new district is that it lowered the threshold from 14 % in North Karelia to aprox. 6% in Savo-Karjala. This means that the Greens have a real change of getting their first representive from this region. For Left Alliance this is also interesting because the current MP is stepping down and the game is really on.

A prediction by one company which makes football predictions is circulating in the local news and here you can see that NCP is really weak in this region.

[windjammer]

Wait,
Was the previous government a coalition of a rightwing party and of a far left party???

[MaxQue]

Wait,
Was the previous government a coalition of a rightwing party and of a far left party???

It was a coalition of:
Conservatives
Social Democrats
Greens
Christians Democrats
Far-left
Swedish minority

Opposition was:
Centre
Far-right

In 2014, the far-left and the Greens left.

So, now

Coalition:
Conservatives
Social Democrats
Christians Democrats
Swedish minority

Opposition was:
Centre
Far-right
Greens
Far-left

It's nothing unusual for Finland, really.

[Helsinkian]

Wait,
Was the previous government a coalition of a rightwing party and of a far left party???

The six party cabinet had a mishmash of ideologies. When the True Finns/Finns Party turned down participation in the coalition, the coalition was then formed on a very wide basis, which included everyone except the True Finns and the Centre Party (which was the biggest loser of the election and wanted to rebuild itself in opposition). Katainen originally did want to leave the Left Alliance out, but ultimately accepted their inclusion after the Social Democrats demanded it (in order to balance the number of left and right wing parties in the six party coalition).

[Helsinkian]

There was a survey (by Lännen Media, the conglomeration of several regional newspapers) done on 1,200 municipal councillors of different parties, who were asked to name the parties with which they would like to see their own party enter into a coalition. The answers from the local politicians of the four large parties:

Of the Centre Party politicians:
75% want to go into a coalition with the Social Democrats
55% want to go into a coalition with the Finns Party
27% want to go into a coalition with the Swedish People's Party
26% want to go into a coalition with the Christian Democrats
23% want to go into a coalition with the National Coalition Party
13% want to go into a coalition with the Left Alliance
5% want to go into a coalition with the Green League

Of the Social Democratic politicians:
93% want to go into a coalition with the Centre Party
62% want to go into a coalition with the Left Alliance
33% want to go into a coalition with the Green League
21% want to go into a coalition with the Finns Party
21% want to go into a coalition with the Swedish People's Party
11% want to go into a coalition with the National Coalition Party
7% want to go into a coalition with the Christian Democrats

Of the National Coalition Party politicians:
97% want to go into a coalition with the Centre Party
55% want to go into a coalition with the Swedish People's Party
37% want to go into a coalition with the Finns Party
33% want to go into a coalition with the Christian Democrats
22% want to go into a coalition with the Social Democrats
8% want to go into a coalition with the Green League
2% want to go into a coalition with the Left Alliance

Of the Finns Party politicians:
95% want to go into a coalition with the Centre Party
55% want to go into a coalition with the Social Democrats
24% want to go into a coalition with the Christian Democrats
22% want to go into a coalition with the National Coalition Party
10% want to go into a coalition with the Left Alliance
4% want to go into a coalition with the Swedish People's Party
3% want to go into a coalition with the Green League

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So everyone wants to play with the Centre Party, but the Centre Party's voters are only dead keen on the Social Democrats. Some of the other patterns are interesting as well.

[politicus]

So everyone wants to play with the Centre Party, but the Centre Party's voters are only dead keen on the Social Democrats. Some of the other patterns are interesting as well.

Not voters, local councillors.

[Lasitten]

I don't know where this "society is broken" -rhetoric comes from, but both the National Coalition Party and Left Alliance seems to be using it.

Here's the NCP:

"Politics are broken. Welcome to be part of the correction."

Left Alliance:

"We will fix it. Rebuilders of the welfare state."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is how the Literal Democrat fiasco happened, lol.

I don't know where this "society is broken" -rhetoric comes from

David Cameron.

[Helsinkian]

The Finnish National Broadcaster YLE has uploaded four-minute interviews from nearly all candidates in the election: over 1,800 interviews all in all. It's quite a project. I wonder, if something like it has been attempted in other countries on such a scale? Finland's open list system of course puts emphasis on candidates in a way that a closed list system does not.

I can put the link here, if someone's interested, but the interviews are of course in Finnish or (in the case of Swedish People's Party and Åland candidates) in Swedish: Election Gallery

[Vega]

If I was an average Finnish citizen, who should I vote for?

[Helsinkian]

Opinion polls published in March:

Tietoykkönen/Iltalehti early March:

Centre Party 23.5%
National Coalition Party 17.3%
Finns Party 16.8%
Social Democrats 16.4%
Left Alliance 8.3%
Green League 8.2%
Swedish People's Party 4.1%
Christian Democrats 3.6%
Others 1.7%

TNS Gallup/Helsingin Sanomat, mid-February to mid-March:

Centre Party 24.7%
Social Democrats 16.9%
National Coalition Party 16.8%
Finns Party 15.2%
Green League 8.6%
Left Alliance 8.4%
Swedish People's Party 4.2%
Christian Democrats 3.3%
Others 1.9%

Taloustutkimus/YLE, late-February to mid-March:

Centre Party 24.9%
Social Democrats 16.2%
National Coalition Party 16.1%
Finns Party 14.6%
Green League 8.9%
Left Alliance 8.5%
Swedish People's Party 4.5%
Christian Democrats 3.9%
Others 2.4%

[politicus]

If I was an average Finnish citizen, who should I vote for?

One of the strangest questions asked around here.

Do you mean a median voter? (middle aged, public sector employed, suburban, home owner, average income etc.?)

And should according to our (or the Finnish posters?) personal preferences or what?

[Helsinkian]

The Finnish National Broadcaster YLE has uploaded four-minute interviews from nearly all candidates in the election: over 1,800 interviews all in all. It's quite a project. I wonder, if something like it has been attempted in other countries on such a scale? Finland's open list system of course puts emphasis on candidates in a way that a closed list system does not.

I can put the link here, if someone's interested, but the interviews are of course in Finnish or (in the case of Swedish People's Party and Åland candidates) in Swedish: Election Gallery

Perhaps predictably, the candidates that get the most views are those, who come off as quirky or ill prepared. This Pirate Party candidate from Lapland has gotten more than 200,000 views in the election gallery: video in Youtube with English subtitles (from the subtitle button).

[politicus]

The Finnish National Broadcaster YLE has uploaded four-minute interviews from nearly all candidates in the election: over 1,800 interviews all in all. It's quite a project. I wonder, if something like it has been attempted in other countries on such a scale? Finland's open list system of course puts emphasis on candidates in a way that a closed list system does not.

I can put the link here, if someone's interested, but the interviews are of course in Finnish or (in the case of Swedish People's Party and Åland candidates) in Swedish: Election Gallery

Perhaps predictably, the candidates that get the most views are those, who come off as quirky or ill prepared. This Pirate Party candidate from Lapland has gotten more than 200,000 views in the election gallery: video in Youtube with English subtitles (from the subtitle button).

"My pet gerbil used cannabis and died of an overdose. I'd like to have a moment of silence for Tero"

"How big is your budget?" - "Do you mean under the counter?"

"What is the biggest problem in Finland?" - "I am hungry" - "And Finland?" - "I am in Finland... and I am hungry"

LOL

Absolutely brilliant and quintessentially Finnish..

[mubar]

So everyone wants to play with the Centre Party, but the Centre Party's voters are only dead keen on the Social Democrats. Some of the other patterns are interesting as well.

Not voters, local councillors.

Last week, this question was asked also on voters in a TNS Gallup poll ordered by The Foundation for Municipal Development: http://yle.fi/uutiset/poll_finland_wants_a_red_earth_government/7868686

Main finding is that there is an overall majority support for both Centre party and SDP being in the next government. The percentage of voters who want each party to be part of the government:

Centre Party 60%
Social Democrats 51%
National Coalition Party 34%
Finns Party 30%
Green League 27%
Left Alliance 24%
Swedish People's Party 19%
Christian Democrats 13%

(Don't know / can't say 18%)

So this would mean a general approval for a traditional Social Democrats - Centre Party coalition ('red earth'). The 2 can't alone form a majority government, so they'd still need to pick partners from the less popular parties.

There's an article on the poll here (in Finnish): http://www.kaks.fi/node/7755 with details in pdf. It shows that the parties' voters have similar views as the local politicians.

• Centre and SDP voters want to see each other's party in the government, which is a strong signal for a 'red earth' coalition basis forming. Besides, SDP voters also would like to have Left Alliance and maybe the Greens in, while Centre voters are just somewhat ok with Finns Party joining. Centre preferences would result to a centrist-populist Centre-SDP-Finns coalition, for SDP supporters a left-wing Centre-SDP-Left-Greens(-Swedish Party) coalition would be fine.
  
• National Coalition Party voters would really love to rule together with Centre, and they'd include Swedish People's Party as the minor partner. However National Coalition isn't much liked among Centre voters, and even less within other major parties. Their preferred right-wing coalition Centre-NCP-Swedish Party (and eventually the Christian Democrats too) also isn't likely to get majority.
• For the Finns Party voters only Centre seems acceptable, with little interest for seeing any other parties in government. Conversely, of the others only Centre voters have some acceptance for having the Finns in. Due to such large disagreement between Finns and all other parties, a coalition including them would definitely be uneasy from the start.
  
• Both Left Alliance and Green League voters really want to have SDP in the government, Greens and Left also like each other. As neither party's voters also don't have particularly negative view on Centre, their preference is similar to SDP voters. However both parties now have certain reservations regarding government, as they both left the 'six-pack' gov't for opposition just last year. 

Obviously we can't predict what the end result will look like, due to the consensus nature of Finnish politics, so that in the end almost everyone is willing to play with almost everyone. After all, almost no NCP voter wants to govern with Left Alliance and the feeling certainly is mutual, yet these two parties have been together in the government for 11 of the last 20 years.

[Lasitten]

The National Broadcasting Company YLE is going to interview every chairperson of the parliamentary parties so you can watch and read the this far ready ones from here:

Soini(Finns Party): I'm surprised more immigrants don't come to Finland

Haglund( Swedish People's Party): More immigrants, but no referendum on joining Nato yet

Arhinmäki(Left Alliance): Pro-immigration principles and anti-austerity views

Greens' Niinistö: Other parties stuck in the 70s

[Helsinkian]

Different parties' candidates' answer to the claim "Finland needs more immigrants" in the MTV (biggest commercial TV station; not to be confused with Music Television) voting aid application, proportion of candidates to answer "yes":

Swedish People's Party 93%
Green League 88%
National Coalition Party 66%
Left Alliance 63%
Social Democrats 50%
Centre Party 43%
Christian Democrats 42%
Finns Party 3%
(source)

So we can see that the Finns Party is in its own league with regard to criticism of immigration among the parliamentary parties. Also of note: NCP is more open to immigration than SDP. The question didn't differentiate between types of immigration.

[Diouf]

Couldn't a pure right wing/centre-right coalition (Centre, NCP, Finns Party) be a possibility? It would probably have a quite clear majority. I can see that both the Centre Party and the Finns Party are not to keen on the NCP, which is probably the biggest problem. If the euro-scepticism of the Finns Party creates hurdles then perhaps a "Danish model" with them supporting a minority government.

I can see that this is not the most likely scenario as the Centre Party, which will win the election, will probably start out by including its favoured partner, the Social Democrats. However, if they can't agree on how to create a majority, then perhaps the abovementioned solution could come in play. But I guess since this is Finland, the two parties will manage to put together some kind of broad coalition.