Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015

[Helsinkian]

Couldn't a pure right wing/centre-right coalition (Centre, NCP, Finns Party) be a possibility?

It's definitely possible, especially if the Social Democrats do badly in the election. But if the SDP is the second biggest party, then I would expect the Centre Party to favour them.

[politicus]

Different parties' candidates' answer to the claim "Finland needs more immigrants" in the MTV (biggest commercial TV station; not to be confused with Music Television) voting aid application, proportion of candidates to answer "yes":

Swedish People's Party 93%
Green League 88%
National Coalition Party 66%
Left Alliance 63%
Social Democrats 50%
Centre Party 43%
Christian Democrats 42%
Finns Party 3%
(source)

So we can see that the Finns Party is in its own league with regard to criticism of immigration among the parliamentary parties. Also of note: NCP is more open to immigration than SDP. The question didn't differentiate between types of immigration.

Why does the SPP favour immigration? Do they expect immigrants to choose the easier learnt Swedish rather than Finnish? (only half joking..)

[Helsinkian]

Why does the SPP favour immigration? Do they expect immigrants to choose the easier learnt Swedish rather than Finnish? (only half joking..)

Actually, that is a part of it. A few years ago they stated that their aim is to have 20% of all immigrants study Swedish as the primary language. Such a high share isn't realistic, though, but they have experimented with it in some of the strongly Swedish speaking municipalities of Ostrobothnia. The thing is, these immigrants would find it hard to find employment outside these few municipalities, if they don't speak Finnish.

Another explanation is that the party wants to present itself as the most liberal party in the political field, and as a "polar opposite" to the Finns Party.

[Zanas]

Maybe they also think of immigration as mainly immigration of Swedish citizens in Southwestern Finland ? That would explain the high share.

[SNJ1985]

Different parties' candidates' answer to the claim "Finland needs more immigrants" in the MTV (biggest commercial TV station; not to be confused with Music Television) voting aid application, proportion of candidates to answer "yes":

Swedish People's Party 93%
Green League 88%
National Coalition Party 66%
Left Alliance 63%
Social Democrats 50%
Centre Party 43%
Christian Democrats 42%
Finns Party 3%
(source)

So we can see that the Finns Party is in its own league with regard to criticism of immigration among the parliamentary parties. Also of note: NCP is more open to immigration than SDP. The question didn't differentiate between types of immigration.

It's surprising that the NCP is more pro-immigration than the Left Alliance.

[politicus]

Different parties' candidates' answer to the claim "Finland needs more immigrants" in the MTV (biggest commercial TV station; not to be confused with Music Television) voting aid application, proportion of candidates to answer "yes":

Swedish People's Party 93%
Green League 88%
National Coalition Party 66%
Left Alliance 63%
Social Democrats 50%
Centre Party 43%
Christian Democrats 42%
Finns Party 3%
(source)

So we can see that the Finns Party is in its own league with regard to criticism of immigration among the parliamentary parties. Also of note: NCP is more open to immigration than SDP. The question didn't differentiate between types of immigration.

It's surprising that the NCP is more pro-immigration than the Left Alliance.

Business-friendly = wants an abundant supply of labour to promote growth. Has wealthy and well educated voters whose jobs are not threatened by immigrants and live in upscale neighbourhoods where increased crime and other nuisances don't become a problem.

Left Alliance has some working class voters who may face some of the less nice consequences of immigration.

[Lasitten]

There's new a seat prediction from the National Broadcasting Company.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, why is Kesk doing so well?

[Lasitten]

LOL, why is Kesk doing so well?

They're in the opposition and have managed to get all the frustrated and disappointed voters especially from True Finns and NCP.

[Hifly]

If I'm remembering correctly, PS support was significantly understated in the polls; are they likely to be the 2nd largest party under these numbers?

[Helsinkian]

If I'm remembering correctly, PS support was significantly understated in the polls; are they likely to be the 2nd largest party under these numbers?

It was understated in the polls in 2011: the last opinion poll prior to the election gave them 15.4%, but they ended up getting 19.1%. On the other hand, in the 2012 municipal election and the 2014 European Parliament election their support was actually lower on the election day than what the polls had predicted – the turnout in those elections was, however, much lower than in parliamentary elections.

[Helsinkian]

Päivi Räsänen, leader of the Christian Democrats, is trying to outdo the Green Left when it comes to increasing immigration:

"We have to bear our responsibility of solidarity in this world," she said. "Because we know that there are billions (sic) of refugees all around the world who don’t find a home, and Finland can offer a home to them."
http://yle.fi/uutiset/rasanen_fighting_to_stop_gay_marriage_and_jihadism_but_pro-immigration/7888344

[politicus]

Päivi Räsänen, leader of the Christian Democrats, is trying to outdo the Green Left when it comes to increasing immigration:

"We have to bear our responsibility of solidarity in this world," she said. "Because we know that there are billions (sic) of refugees all around the world who don’t find a home, and Finland can offer a home to them."
http://yle.fi/uutiset/rasanen_fighting_to_stop_gay_marriage_and_jihadism_but_pro-immigration/7888344

Billions of refugees would make Finland a bit crowded..

Her voters were some of the most immigrantion-sceptic in the poll you posted. Does that go for the party membership as well?

[Helsinkian]

Yeah, the answers to the immigration related question that I posted were actually answers from candidates standing for election. Räsänen seems to be more open to immigration than many in the party's base. She has done some flip-flopping on the issue: prior to the 2011 election she said that Finland should favour Christian refugees over non-Christian refugees, but she hasn't done anything about that, even though she's the Minister of the Interior, who has refugee issues in her portfolio.

[politicus]

Yeah, the answers to the immigration related question that I posted were actually answers from candidatesstanding for election. Räsänen seems to be more open to immigration than many in the party's base. She has done some flip-flopping on the issue: prior to the 2011 election she said that Finland should favour Christian refugees over non-Christian refugees, but she hasn't done anything about that, even though she's the Minister of the Interior, who has refugee issues in her portfolio.

Okay, forgot about that.

[mubar]

There's new a seat prediction from the National Broadcasting Company.

And here is their full prediction by electoral district:



The prediction omits electoral alliances, in particular there is one between NCP (KOK) and Swedish People's Party in Varsinais-Suomi (Finland Proper), which will practically guarantee the Swedish Party's seat there, at the cost of some other party. Also, the Greens in Uusimaa are expected to win a seat, and not lose one as the changes column for them mistakenly shows.

In general this is believable stuff. We can expect to see a heavy Centre win, with healthy increases for both Left Alliance and Greens, while SDP, National Coalition Party and Finns would see significant losses and the Christians head for obscurity, with Swedes stable.

The biggest shifts (multiple seat changes in the same district) are attributed to popular politicians; in Uusimaa NCP doesn't have ex-PM Katainen in these elections, as he's now in Brussels, while ex-PM Vanhanen tries to return to parliament in Centre list; in Oulu, Centre's party leader Sipilä is a candidate and expected to collect the largest individual vote.

[Peter the Lefty]

Is it true that the Finnish Greens are economically right of the SDP?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is it true that the Finnish Greens are economically right of the SDP?

The voters or the leadership?

Either way, not really. They have curiously rightist rhetoric and are less resistant to alliances with the right-wing parties than say, the Swedish Greens; but their policies on paper are not highly different from LA. (They're big Basic Income fans, for example).

I think they are quite open to the flexicurity model, which a lot of more 'statist' and union allied Social Democrats may oppose.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't know, I'm drunk

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh I know, I meant left alliance e

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't know, I'm drunk

I see. You are a boring drunk then. We have proud traditions for drunk posting here - and there is a long way up to Scott-level.

ur so mean

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is it true that the Finnish Greens are economically right of the SDP?

The voters or the leadership?

Either way, not really. They have curiously rightist rhetoric and are less resistant to alliances with the right-wing parties than say, the Swedish Greens; but their policies on paper are not highly different from LA. (They're big Basic Income fans, for example).

I think they are quite open to the flexicurity model, which a lot of more 'statist' and union allied Social Democrats may oppose.

Who are they?

An educated guess is that LA is suppouse to be short for Left Alliance.

[politicus]

Is it true that the Finnish Greens are economically right of the SDP?

The voters or the leadership?

Either way, not really. They have curiously rightist rhetoric and are less resistant to alliances with the right-wing parties than say, the Swedish Greens; but their policies on paper are not highly different from LA. (They're big Basic Income fans, for example).

I think they are quite open to the flexicurity model, which a lot of more 'statist' and union allied Social Democrats may oppose.

Who are they?

An educated guess is that LA is suppouse supposed to be short for Left Alliance.

ftfy

And apparently you missed this post:

Oh I know, I meant left alliance

As a Dane I am so used to LA being Liberal Alliance that it confuses me when it stands for something left wing-ish.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And apparently you missed this post:

Oh I know, I meant left alliance

Yep I did. I have CrabCake on ignore, so I only see his stuff when people quote him.  ^^

[Oak Hills]

And apparently you missed this post:

Oh I know, I meant left alliance

Yep I did. I have CrabCake on ignore, so I only see his stuff when people quote him.  ^^

Why on Earth would you have CrabCake on ignore?