Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:31:50 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9
Author Topic: Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015  (Read 33901 times)
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: April 18, 2015, 08:57:11 PM »

^That seems dead on.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: April 19, 2015, 02:35:07 AM »

My prediction:

Centre Party 24.0% (+/- 1%)
Finns Party 17.0% (+/- 1%)
National Coalition Party 16.5% (+/- 1%)
Social Democrats 15.5% (+/- 1%)
Left Alliance 8.5% (+/- 0.5%)
Green League 8.0% (+/- 0.5%)
Swedish People's Party 4.5% (+/- 0.5%)
Christian Democrats 4.0% (+/- 0.5%)
Others 2.0% (+/- 0.5%)

Turnout: 71%  (+/- 2%)
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: April 19, 2015, 05:10:06 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2015, 11:22:34 AM by Helsinkian »

The advance votes are being counted while the voting on the election day goes on. Voting ends 8 PM Finnish time, and the result of the advance voting will be published right after that. Advance voting is more popular in rural areas, which is why the Centre Party always has a higher percentage of votes in the advance votes compared to the final results. The Greens are the polar opposite in that regard: most of their voters vote on the election day. The other parties are somewhere in between.

You should be able to follow the results in English here, when they start to come in: http://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/E-2015/en/index.html

YLE News's English website can also be useful: http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/
Logged
Double Carpet
Rookie
**
Posts: 220
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: April 19, 2015, 08:16:53 AM »

Has anyone got a link for watching Finnish TV online?

YLE TV1 at areena.yle.fi/tv/suora/tv1 currently looks geoblocked (whatever happened to a free market within the EU?!) - don't know whether the election programme might be unblocked.

Thanks!
Logged
The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: April 19, 2015, 10:08:43 AM »

http://arenan.yle.fi/tv/direkt/fem I tried this link earlier which is for the Swedish-language channel and it worked then. It's geoblocked for the show on now but hopefully the election night coverage will be unblocked.
Logged
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: April 19, 2015, 01:25:33 PM »

With a little more than 50% counted:

24,2% Centre Party
17,1% Social Democrats
16,6% National Coalition Party
16,5% True Finns
  7,5% Left Alliance
  6,7% Greens
  5,0% Swedish People's Party
  3,9% Christian Democrats
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: April 19, 2015, 01:32:19 PM »

YLE is currently predicting this result in seats:

Centre 46
National Coalition 37
Social Democrats 37
Finns Party 35
Greens 15
Left Alliance 14
Swedish People's Party 10
Christian Democrats 5
Εland 1

Still lots of votes to be counted. Very tight with regard to places 2–4. Centre Party's victory guaranteed, but it isn't as big as some polls predicted.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: April 19, 2015, 01:41:43 PM »

True Finns seems to be gaining ground and are at 17.3% ahead of NCP at 16.5% and Social Democrats at 16.8%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: April 19, 2015, 01:45:27 PM »

It seems that Helsinki has the largest amount of uncounted votes.   That should work to the advantage of the Centre and against True Finns (should I still call them that ?)
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: April 19, 2015, 01:47:35 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2015, 01:52:23 PM by Helsinkian »

Helsinki is actually traditionally the weakest district for the Centre Party. It's also the weakest one for the Finns Party/True Finns though. Uncounted votes in Helsinki might advantage the Greens, who are strong here, NCP too.

(Finns Party is the name that they prefer themselves. Some international media are sticking with "True Finns", but the Finnish media uses "Finns Party", when reporting in English).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: April 19, 2015, 01:48:46 PM »

When looking at my prediction, the count as it is right now could just freeze ...

The Social Dems could drop a bit more and the Greens rise a bit and I'm happy.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: April 19, 2015, 01:49:15 PM »

Helsinki is actually the weakest district for the Centre Party. It's also the weakest one for the Finns Party/True Finns though. (Finns Party is the name that they prefer themselves. Some international media are sticking with "True Finns", but the Finnish media uses "Finns Party", when reporting in English).

My fault.  Typo. I meant this is good for NCP and not Centre.  Thanks for clarifying on True Finns.
Logged
Tayya
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 399
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: April 19, 2015, 01:50:45 PM »

Helsinki and Nyland being slow does explain why the Greens are expected to breach 8%, though.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: April 19, 2015, 01:52:49 PM »

Yeah, the Greens always rise toward the end of the count.
Logged
FredLindq
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 447
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: April 19, 2015, 01:57:41 PM »

YLE's current prediction:

Centre 47
National Coalition 38
Social Democrats 36
Finns Party 35
Greens 15
Left Alliance 13
Swedish People's Party 10
Christian Democrats 5
Εland 1

It seems like NCP has surged and gets the silver medal.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: April 19, 2015, 02:02:13 PM »

YLE's current prediction:

Centre 47
National Coalition 38
Social Democrats 36
Finns Party 35
Greens 15
Left Alliance 13
Swedish People's Party 10
Christian Democrats 5
Εland 1

It seems like NCP has surged and gets the silver medal.



We will see, but I find it more likely that True Finns will finish ahead of Social Democrats than other way around.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: April 19, 2015, 02:05:04 PM »

Finns Party just went ahead of Social Democrats in the YLE prediction. We shall see, what the end result is!
Logged
FredLindq
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 447
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: April 19, 2015, 02:07:39 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2015, 02:11:16 PM by FredLindq »

NCP har surpassed SDP in votes now in the actual counting. Finns still second but a lot off NCP votes in Helsinki and Urban Finland has not been counted.

Look att the poor showing for the red-greens. Just 32.5% (-2.0). Lowest support ever?!
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: April 19, 2015, 02:13:29 PM »

If I understand the election system correctly is not the Pirate Party en route to win a seat, maybe 2?
Logged
FredLindq
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 447
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: April 19, 2015, 02:15:08 PM »

I doubt it.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: April 19, 2015, 02:19:34 PM »


Really?  I thought there was no threshold which means with 200 members the de facto threshold is 0.5%.  If so then would not the Pirate Party with 0.8% get in ?
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: April 19, 2015, 02:21:26 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2015, 02:23:11 PM by Governor Simfan34 »

It seems that Helsinki has the largest amount of uncounted votes.   That should work to the advantage of the Centre and against True Finns (should I still call them that ?)

They insist upon being called "the Finns Party" because "True" is one of several possible translations of the relevant word, while it carries a certain chauvinistic connotation that I suspect they were not really going for- I believe it could also be translated as "Ordinary Finns" which sounds rather different.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: April 19, 2015, 02:23:35 PM »


Really?  I thought there was no threshold which means with 200 members the de facto threshold is 0.5%.  If so then would not the Pirate Party with 0.8% get in ?

There are 13 electoral districts, and therefore essentially 13 separate elections. The national result doesn't have a direct effect on seat number. Only the result in each district matters.
Logged
politicus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,174
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: April 19, 2015, 02:24:23 PM »

It seems that Helsinki has the largest amount of uncounted votes.   That should work to the advantage of the Centre and against True Finns (should I still call them that ?)

They insist upon being called "the Finns Party" because "True" is one of several possible translations of the relevant word, while it carries a certain chauvinistic connotation that I suspect they were not really going for- I believe it could also be translated as "Ordinary Finns" which sounds rather different.

We settled on Average Joe Finns (or Average Jukka Finns) in an earlier discussion of it.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: April 19, 2015, 02:26:14 PM »

We settled on Average Joe Finns (or Average Jukka Finns) in an earlier discussion of it.

That captures the spirit of the Finnish word, yes.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 13 queries.