Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

'White van man Finn'

[Simfan34]

We settled on Average Joe Finns (or Average Jukka Finns) in an earlier discussion of it.

That captures the spirit of the Finnish word, yes.

Ha, really? Well there you go. Hence why "True Finns" was not particularly popular, I can imagine.

[Helsinkian]

Finns Party just went ahead of NCP in the YLE prediction. Interesting hour ahead!

[jaichind]

Finns Party just went ahead of NCP in the YLE prediction. Interesting hour ahead!

I guess is it about Helsinki almost catching up in terms of vote count with the nation at large and that there are still a lot of Finns vote ahead in Uusimaa.

[jaichind]

Finns Party just went ahead of NCP in the YLE prediction. Interesting hour ahead!

In the real vote count NCP did pull ahead of Finns but I guess it is possible that Finns can win more seats than NCP even with less votes which I suspect is the YLE projection.

[Vega]

What website are you guys getting this from?

[jaichind]

What website are you guys getting this from?

http://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/E-2015/en/tulos_kokomaa.html

it was posted ealier.

[Vega]

What website are you guys getting this from?

http://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/E-2015/en/tulos_kokomaa.html

it was posted ealier.

Ah, thanks.

Well, at least the worst parties lost the most seats... not thrilled with the results though.

[FredLindq]

NCP will get more votes that The Finns. However The Finns might get one seat or so more. But i could be close...

[FredLindq]

I doubt that SDP after another loss will enter the next guvernment. 2003 24.47%, 2007 21.44%, 2011 19.10% and in 2015 16.5%

My guess is Center, NCP, Finns and probably the christiandemocrats.

[Helsinkian]

Four years ago Timo Soini called the Finns Party's victory a "jytky" (roughly translated: "bang", as in something really big and loud). Now the Finns Party supporters are chanting "jatkojytky" ("continuation bang") in their election party.

[Vega]

I doubt that SDP after another loss will enter the next guvernment. 2003 24.47%, 2007 21.44%, 2011 19.10% and in 2015 16.5%

My guess is Center, NCP, Finns and probably the christiandemocrats.

Swedish party gets in the government. They always get in because the only thing they care is the state of Swedish language.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

They have very strong objections to the Finn Party who make a strident stand against compulsory Swedish lessons.

[jaichind]

I think someone else pointed this out before but this has to be the worst result for the Social Democrats ever.

[Helsinkian]

Yeah, when the SDP got 45 seats and were third in 2007, they considered that a big crisis for the party... And now they are fourth with 34 seats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is the party's decline terminal?

[jaichind]

Yeah, when the SDP got 45 seats and were third in 2007, they considered that a big crisis for the party... And now they are fourth with 34 seats.

I was thinking ever further back and for the Left as a whole.  This time the vote share of the Left (Social Dem + Left Alliances + Greens) would be around 32%.  This has to be the worst result for the Finnish Left ever.  Even in 1930 where the election was held after the Communists were banned and under an anti-Communist anti-Left fervor the Left managed 34% of the vote.  I guess this is the affect of the Finns Party taking a bunch of working class votes from the Left since 2007.

[Helsinkian]

Is the party's decline terminal?

Well, there's the fact that the SDP's single most important supporter base are now the pensioners, and with young people the party's support is really low. Young left-wingers prefer the Greens or the Left Alliance, while working class men are voting the Finns Party more and more.

[jaichind]

The official results now have Finns with 38 seats beating out NCP with 37 seats. 

[jaichind]

On what the market would prefer in terms of governing coalition, a Nordea Bank report indicates that

1) Further Finnish credit-rating downgrades are likely if election winner Center Party chooses to govern with the Social Democrats and The Finns party.  Sees clear risk that such govt would not tackle Finnish problems with sufficient determination, will once again put too much hope on growth running to the rescue; reforms would be too little, too late

2) Government formed by the Centre Party, National Coalition Party and The Finns party would be most market friendly one, most likely one to implement quick reforms and fiscal consolidation; would mean “all hope is not yet lost” regarding Finland keeping its remaining AAA credit ratings

[Helsinkian]

Finns Party became the largest party in the electoral district of Satakunta in Western Finland with 25% of the votes. Thus it is the first time for the party as the largest party in an electoral district.

[jaichind]

Election district of  Pirkanmaa is interesting.  No party won more than 20% of the vote. 

[Helsinkian]

So, the preliminary count is complete. As always, there will be a confirmation count, after which the result will be confirmed on thursday.

Centre Party 21.1%, 49 seats (+14)
Finns Party 17.6%, 38 seats (-1)
National Coalition Party 18.2%, 37 seats (-7)
Social Democratic Party 16.5%, 34 seats (-8)
Green League 8.5%, 15 seats (+5)
Left Alliance 7.1%, 12 seats (-2)
Swedish People's Party 4.9%, 9 seats (No change)
Christian Democrats 3.5%, 5 seats (-1)
Åland 1 seat

The slimmest margins between parties in the seat allocation:
- In Central Finland the Centre Party got the last seat with a 45 vote margin to the Left Alliance.
- In Helsinki the Finns Party got the last seat with a 149 vote margin to the NCP.

[Helsinkian]

This is how the election looked like in Helsinki:

National Coalition Party 26%, 6 seats
Green League 18.8%, 5 seats
Social Democratic Party 15.5%, 4 seats
Finns Party 11.3%, 3 seats
Left Alliance 9.9%, 2 seats
Centre Party 7.2%, 1 seat
Swedish People's Party 6.8%, 1 seat

As you can see, Centre is still small in the capital. This time they tried to get two seats by taking a big gamble and running two of their big names, Olli Rehn and Paula Lehtomäki, in Helsinki. Only Rehn was elected.

[politicus]

Åland 1 seat

To whom?