Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015

[jaichind]

True Finns seems to be gaining ground and are at 17.3% ahead of NCP at 16.5% and Social Democrats at 16.8%

[jaichind]

It seems that Helsinki has the largest amount of uncounted votes.   That should work to the advantage of the Centre and against True Finns (should I still call them that ?)

[jaichind]

Helsinki is actually the weakest district for the Centre Party. It's also the weakest one for the Finns Party/True Finns though. (Finns Party is the name that they prefer themselves. Some international media are sticking with "True Finns", but the Finnish media uses "Finns Party", when reporting in English).

My fault.  Typo. I meant this is good for NCP and not Centre.  Thanks for clarifying on True Finns.

[jaichind]

YLE's current prediction:

Centre 47
National Coalition 38
Social Democrats 36
Finns Party 35
Greens 15
Left Alliance 13
Swedish People's Party 10
Christian Democrats 5
Åland 1

It seems like NCP has surged and gets the silver medal.

We will see, but I find it more likely that True Finns will finish ahead of Social Democrats than other way around.

[jaichind]

If I understand the election system correctly is not the Pirate Party en route to win a seat, maybe 2?

[jaichind]

I doubt it.

Really?  I thought there was no threshold which means with 200 members the de facto threshold is 0.5%.  If so then would not the Pirate Party with 0.8% get in ?

[jaichind]

Finns Party just went ahead of NCP in the YLE prediction. Interesting hour ahead!

I guess is it about Helsinki almost catching up in terms of vote count with the nation at large and that there are still a lot of Finns vote ahead in Uusimaa.

[jaichind]

Finns Party just went ahead of NCP in the YLE prediction. Interesting hour ahead!

In the real vote count NCP did pull ahead of Finns but I guess it is possible that Finns can win more seats than NCP even with less votes which I suspect is the YLE projection.

[jaichind]

What website are you guys getting this from?

http://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/E-2015/en/tulos_kokomaa.html

it was posted ealier.

[jaichind]

I think someone else pointed this out before but this has to be the worst result for the Social Democrats ever.

[jaichind]

Yeah, when the SDP got 45 seats and were third in 2007, they considered that a big crisis for the party... And now they are fourth with 34 seats.

I was thinking ever further back and for the Left as a whole.  This time the vote share of the Left (Social Dem + Left Alliances + Greens) would be around 32%.  This has to be the worst result for the Finnish Left ever.  Even in 1930 where the election was held after the Communists were banned and under an anti-Communist anti-Left fervor the Left managed 34% of the vote.  I guess this is the affect of the Finns Party taking a bunch of working class votes from the Left since 2007.

[jaichind]

The official results now have Finns with 38 seats beating out NCP with 37 seats. 

[jaichind]

On what the market would prefer in terms of governing coalition, a Nordea Bank report indicates that

1) Further Finnish credit-rating downgrades are likely if election winner Center Party chooses to govern with the Social Democrats and The Finns party.  Sees clear risk that such govt would not tackle Finnish problems with sufficient determination, will once again put too much hope on growth running to the rescue; reforms would be too little, too late

2) Government formed by the Centre Party, National Coalition Party and The Finns party would be most market friendly one, most likely one to implement quick reforms and fiscal consolidation; would mean “all hope is not yet lost” regarding Finland keeping its remaining AAA credit ratings

[jaichind]

Election district of  Pirkanmaa is interesting.  No party won more than 20% of the vote. 

[jaichind]

Åland 1 seat

To whom?

I assume to Åland Coalition

[jaichind]

Please!!

I am Reading this thread to get info about Finnish politks not religion.

Order!!! :-)

So what do you think. My guess is still Centre, NCP, Finns and christiandemocrats.

SFP will be outside, I thinkt that they will not cooperate with the "Finns".

Same here.  On this topic.  It seems Sipila does not rule out Finns party being part of the ruling bloc insisting that it will not hurt Finland's reputation.    Meanwhile Soini said that Finns Party is ready to take part in government formation talks.   And Stubb seems to want to carry on as NCP leader and seems ready to be Sipila's cabinet.    Also it seems NCP-Social Democrat relations are broken anyway so it does not seem to be any altnerative to Centre-Finns-NCP. 

But whatever the coalition make up it will be a uphill climb to restore competitiveness and
growth and halt the rise in public debt.