Best Case Scenarios for both parties

[OSR stands with Israel]

For Democrats

Dems 385
GOP : 183

Happens if Obama has modest approval rating, democrats nominate Hillary while republicans nominate Cruz

Republicans

GOP 332
Dems 206

Happens if Obama approvals are in the upper 20s lower 30s range and democrats nominate Biden while republicans nominate Christe or Walker

[bobloblaw]

Yeah that looks about right. Though I think MO is more like IN now. I dont think the Dems can win MO.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah that looks about right. Though I think MO is more like IN now. I dont think the Dems can win MO.

Didnt Obama nearly win Missouri

[bobloblaw]

Well in 2008 MO was D minus 3
In 2012 MO was D minus 7

So in 2016, if MO was like in 2008, the Dem would need about 53% to carry the state. If MO was like in 2012, the Dem would need close to 57%.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Yeah that looks about right. Though I think MO is more like IN now. I dont think the Dems can win MO.

Didnt Obama nearly win Missouri

Yep. He was only off by about 0.1%

[Goldwater]

I think NM would flip before MN.

[Xing]

Didnt Obama nearly win Missouri

Yeah, he barely lost Missouri, but he actually won Indiana.

Best case scenario for Dems:

And for Reps:

[NewYorkExpress]

Best case for Democrats; Someone competent other than Hillary/Biden runs and wins a tight race (nominating Hillary or Biden is setting the party up for disaster in 2016, or worse 2020).

Best Case for Republicans; Cruz runs and wins the nomination, then, aided by low popularity for President Obama and poor campaigning from Hillary/Biden, wins the General Election easily. (Cruz is probably best case because he is ardently conservative, and would be competitive or better in November-Walker might fit this too, but he might not be conservative enough for most activists)

[Joe Republic]

Best case for Democrats; Someone competent other than Hillary/Biden runs and wins a tight race (nominating Hillary or Biden is setting the party up for disaster in 2016, or worse 2020).

Best Case for Republicans; Cruz runs and wins the nomination, then, aided by low popularity for President Obama and poor campaigning from Hillary/Biden, wins the General Election easily. (Cruz is probably best case because he is ardently conservative, and would be competitive or better in November-Walker might fit this too, but he might not be conservative enough for most activists)

Do you know anything about politics, at all?

[NewYorkExpress]

Best case for Democrats; Someone competent other than Hillary/Biden runs and wins a tight race (nominating Hillary or Biden is setting the party up for disaster in 2016, or worse 2020).

Best Case for Republicans; Cruz runs and wins the nomination, then, aided by low popularity for President Obama and poor campaigning from Hillary/Biden, wins the General Election easily. (Cruz is probably best case because he is ardently conservative, and would be competitive or better in November-Walker might fit this too, but he might not be conservative enough for most activists)

Do you know anything about politics, at all?

I try to... If that makes me unsuccessful, then that's my problem, not yours.

[Joe Republic]

Best case for Democrats; Someone competent other than Hillary/Biden runs and wins a tight race (nominating Hillary or Biden is setting the party up for disaster in 2016, or worse 2020).

Best Case for Republicans; Cruz runs and wins the nomination, then, aided by low popularity for President Obama and poor campaigning from Hillary/Biden, wins the General Election easily. (Cruz is probably best case because he is ardently conservative, and would be competitive or better in November-Walker might fit this too, but he might not be conservative enough for most activists)

Do you know anything about politics, at all?

I try too... If that makes me unsuccessful, than that's my problem, not yours.

Do you know anything about spelling and grammar, at all?

[NewYorkExpress]

Best case for Democrats; Someone competent other than Hillary/Biden runs and wins a tight race (nominating Hillary or Biden is setting the party up for disaster in 2016, or worse 2020).

Best Case for Republicans; Cruz runs and wins the nomination, then, aided by low popularity for President Obama and poor campaigning from Hillary/Biden, wins the General Election easily. (Cruz is probably best case because he is ardently conservative, and would be competitive or better in November-Walker might fit this too, but he might not be conservative enough for most activists)

Do you know anything about politics, at all?

I try too... If that makes me unsuccessful, than that's my problem, not yours.

Do you know anything about spelling and grammar, at all?

That can, and will be edited.

[dmmidmi]

I like the maps but with Walker or Kasich on the ticket Michigan would almost certainly be in play.

No.

[IceSpear]

Best case for Democrats; Someone competent other than Hillary/Biden runs and wins a tight race (nominating Hillary or Biden is setting the party up for disaster in 2016, or worse 2020).

Best Case for Republicans; Cruz runs and wins the nomination, then, aided by low popularity for President Obama and poor campaigning from Hillary/Biden, wins the General Election easily. (Cruz is probably best case because he is ardently conservative, and would be competitive or better in November-Walker might fit this too, but he might not be conservative enough for most activists)

This post gave me cancer.

[IceSpear]

Since I want to make this look somewhat realistic, I'm going to implicitly assume that both parties don't nominate a complete joke candidate, otherwise the ceilings would be higher of course.

D - 396
R - 142

R - 322
D - 216

[bobloblaw]

I think NM would flip before MN.

Those two are trending opposite directions

[Württemberger]

I think NM would flip before MN.

Those two are trending opposite directions

No. MN is trending Democratic (take a look at the 2014 MN Senate Trend Map, it also trended Democratic in 2012) and NM is remaining safe D., but not trending D. (it even trended Republican in 2012 with Romney on the ticket LOL).

[Rockefeller GOP]

GOP best case (in 2016):

DEM best case (in 2016):

[IceSpear]

GOP best case (in 2016):

DEM best case (in 2016):

Colorado was a mistake I'm guessing?

[Orser67]

Green are all the states potentially in play. I don't think that all 50 states are in play, but I still think that either party could win 55% of the national popular vote and put most states in play.

[Rockefeller GOP]

GOP best case (in 2016):

DEM best case (in 2016):

Colorado was a mistake I'm guessing?

Yes, definitely was.  I'll fix that.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Green are all the states potentially in play. I don't think that all 50 states are in play, but I still think that either party could win 55% of the national popular vote and put most states in play.

I know 2014 midterms sent a loud message, but I just can't see TX going Dem before AR or WV.

[Liberalrocks]

Well now that Palin has indicated she might announce the best case scenario for the dems might need to be revisited. (Evil Laugh)

[MATTROSE94]

GOP best case (in 2016):

DEM best case (in 2016):

Colorado was a mistake I'm guessing?

Yes, definitely was.  I'll fix that.

Then again Hillary Clinton isn't polling that great in Colorado when compared to Obama, so it might be a Republican pick up in 2016.

[Rockefeller GOP]

GOP best case (in 2016):

DEM best case (in 2016):

Colorado was a mistake I'm guessing?

Yes, definitely was.  I'll fix that.

Then again Hillary Clinton isn't polling that great in Colorado when compared to Obama, so it might be a Republican pick up in 2016.

I'm actually of the belief that it will be, but you still almost have to include it in a Democratic ceiling.