President of Yemen resigns

[Famous Mortimer]

President of Yemen resigns after Shiite rebels take over the presidential palace.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

A King dies and a President resigns within hours.  I wonder what else will happen today.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm guessing this resignation is just a gambit to get the rebels to give back the palace/hostages. They had already agreed to do that in theory but for some reason reneged, and that's why the president resigned.

They haven't bothered to swear in the next in line. This certainly could be because it's the beginning of a Somalia situation but I suspect it's because the president is actually going to remain in office.

As to what happens if he doesn't remain in office, the Shiite's don't actually want to rule the country. I expect they would invite the parliamentary opposition parties to form a new government on the condition that they get total autonomy.

There other possibility is a coup. What's that pro-Saudi generals name? He was rumored to be plotting a coup during the Arab Spring but it never happened. I keep googling "Yemen general" but the damn ruling party the "General People's Congress" keeps popping up.

[BaconBacon96]

A King dies and a President resigns within hours.  I wonder what else will happen today.

Both of these are very annoying for Saudi Arabia. The Shiite rebels are believed to receive support from Iran. The Saudis don't want to have another Shiite ruled state on their border.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, I think the Southern movement aren't serious players and would only become so if there was a total breakdown of law and order.

[Nhoj]

Also, I think the Southern movement aren't serious players and would only become so if there was a total breakdown of law and order.

I imagine a total breakdown is more likely to lead to Al queda taking over more of the south. I doubt the old southern secessionists have much military might anymore

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, I think the Southern movement aren't serious players and would only become so if there was a total breakdown of law and order.

I imagine a total breakdown is more likely to lead to Al queda taking over more of the south. I doubt the old southern secessionists have much military might anymore

Agreed. They either team up with AQAP like the Ba'athist remnants teamed up with ISIS or they fight it out like the PKK. Since there wouldn't be any worried about offending Turkey, there's a small chance they would get international backing.

[Famous Mortimer]

As I sort of predicted, parliament has rejected the president's resignation. So he's still president.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar is the pro-Saudi general I was thinking of.

Interestingly, there is now talk that the Shiites are aligned with former President Saleh.

This means there won't be much coordination between the Shiites and the traditional opposition parties (Socialists, Islah, Nassterists, Baathists).

There really aren't many options for them to form a national government. They could invite Saleh back but that would definitely cause a full blown civil war.

[politicus]

@Willips: Could you do a write-up on Yemen (if you have the time)? Who is who and what are the different groups relationship to each other?

[Famous Mortimer]

Ali Abdullah Saleh - Military ruler of North Yemen from 1978 until 1990 and then president of just Yemen from 1990 until he was forced from power by the Arab Spring in 2012. Saleh founded the General People's Congress, the country's largest party, really just a patronage machine with no ideology. He is a Shiite, who make up about 35% of Yemen's population, mostly in the North.

Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi - Still, against his wishes, the current president of Yemen. Hadi was a member of the military of South Yemen. In 1986 there was a civil war in South Yemen between those who wanted to support Communist insurgency in Oman and North Yemen and those who didn't. Hadi was a member of the non-interventionist faction, which lost, causing him to flee to North Yemen. When South Yemen tried to reassert its independence in 1994, Hadi opposed it. He was then chosen to replace Ali Salim al-Beidh, the leader of the Southern rebellion, as Vice President. He is still, as far as I can tell, a member of the General People's Congress. While VP he was pretty much faceless and never clashed with Saleh at all. I was very surprised that the Arab Spring protesters even considered him becoming president to be a victory. Seriously like overthrowing George Bush and cheering when Dick Cheney comes to office. Regardless, Hadi and the former Arab Spring Protesters remain on good terms. The General People's Congress has turned against him and is backing the return of Saleh.

Houthis - Shiite rebels who began their rebellion in 2004. They complain that as a minority group, they are discriminated against (ignoring the fact that there used to be a Shiite president). Mainly they're just tribal people who resent any central control and they were probably also motivated by wanting to have a fundamentalist Shiite state and opposing Yemeni cooperation with the US during the period of the Iraq War. The Houthis, named for the family that leads the rebels, gave their support to the Arab Spring protests but ultimately opted to keep fighting because they didn't like that the final deal to end the protests included immunity for President Saleh. Now they're aligned with President Saleh. This is mostly opportunism but the fact that he's also Shiite makes it slightly less ridiculous, slightly.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula/Ansar al-Sharia - Probably the most active/well organized al Qaeda franchise after ISIS was disowned. Al Qaeda has been active in Yemen for years. They did the USS Cole bombing of course. Many people forget as well that Osama bin Laden was actually believed to be in Yemen prior to 9/11. Also, they claimed responsibility for the Charlie Hebdo attack. AQAP controls some less populated areas in the South. They could be a major player if chaos reigned but are obviously unlikely to make any alliances with either the current government of the Shiites.

Various Sunni hick tribes - These are the people who enabled the revolution against Saleh to take place. They could very well decide again who rules Yemen. They could align with literally anyone, the Shiites because they're fellow tribals, al Qaeda because they're fellow Sunnis, the government because of the ties from the revolution, some of them even still back Saleh.

[Simfan34]

The Zaydis do not seem that terrible if you look past the "death to America" posturing. They are not Twelver Shias, and their brand of Shiism is relatively close to Sunnism and historically was rather accommodationist. Things were thrown out of whack when the ruling Imamate was ousted, with heavy Egyptian help, in the 1960s.

It does seem that Yemen has managed to marginalise pretty much everyone, north and south. Then again we have to remember Yemen only came into existence in 1993. If the "hick tribes" and the Houthis could gain the upper hand we could very easily see a split. Which may be the better outcome provided they can manage to get along in the North and South afterwards.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Zaydis do not seem that terrible if you look past the "death to America" posturing. They are not Twelver Shias, and their brand of Shiism is relatively close to Sunnism and historically was rather accommodationist. Things were thrown out of whack when the ruling Imamate was ousted, with heavy Egyptian help, in the 1960s.

Yeah, they're weird Shiites. The fact that the rebels were pissed about the Iraq War is evidence of that. Plus Saleh was also very pro-Saddam. They are not natural Iranian allies like the media is making out, although it's certainly possible they are aligned out of convenience now (just like the rebels and Saleh are).

It does seem that Yemen has managed to marginalise pretty much everyone, north and south. Then again we have to remember Yemen only came into existence in 1993. If the "hick tribes" and the Houthis could gain the upper hand we could very easily see a split. Which may be the better outcome provided they can manage to get along in the North and South afterwards.

Yemeni unification didn't make much sense. Yemen wasn't like Korea or Germany. It had never been a unified political entity. North Yemen was its own little hick emirate and South Yemen was a British colony. Reasons for the merger were basically 1) South Yemen didn't have any money after the USSR collapsed 2) North Yemen was vaguely committed to pan-Arabism (they were part of the United Arab States with Egypt and Syria) 3) it was the momentum of world politics at the end of the Cold War 4) They both had Yemen in their name so why not?

I think if we did see a tribal alliance though, we wouldn't see a break up of the country, just the creation of a very loose federation. The hick tribes, Sunni and Shiite both share an ideology of just wanting to be left alone.

[Famous Mortimer]

Parliamentary opposition parties:

Islah: Largest party after the General People's Congress. Islamist, linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. Basically it's the political wing of the Sunni tribes.

General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar is also a major figure in Islah. He is more explicitly backed by Saudi Arabia. Of North Yemeni Sunni origin, he was originally tasked with fighting the Shiite rebels. He abandoned that position to protect protesters during the Arab Spring. There were lots of rumors he would overthrow Saleh in a coup but this never happened.
 
Yemeni Socialist Party: This was the ruling party in South Yemen. South Yemen is often reported as being Communist (it basically was) but it was really somewhere between being a typical third world single party socialist state and being a full blown Marxist-Leninist Soviet satellite. Doctrinaire Soviet Communism could obviously never be successful in a Muslim country because of atheism. So the YSP never called itself Communist and actually the name they have now is the same name they had when they were in power. I honestly have no idea who still supports the YSP. I imagine it's a lot of older urban people nostalgic for the old days. Most of the moderates (the non-interventionists in the South Yemen Civil War) switched the General People's Congress. Most of the left-wingers support the Southern independence movement. I have no idea who's left.

Other parties: Ba'athist (pro-Saddam) and Nasserites. They are not very popular but they're well organized so they usually get invited to negotiations whenever there's a need for such things.

Southern Movement: Led by former South Yemen YSP chairman and full Yemen Vice President Ali Salim al-Beidh. Saleh was removed from office after trying to reestablish South Yemen in 1994. When he tried back then, he was still vaguely left-wing but committed to multi-party democracy. Now he appears to have no other ideological goals besides regionalism, as he has invited a lot of Islamists into his movement. Frankly, I think the Islamists are using him, not the other way around. Even with the Islamists help, I don't think they are a serious threat though. There's a possibility, somewhat overstated but weirder things have happened, that they could ally with al-Qaeda, which is also based in the South.

[Indy Texas]

Yemeni unification didn't make much sense. Yemen wasn't like Korea or Germany. It had never been a unified political entity. North Yemen was its only little hick emirate and South Yemen was a British colony. Reasons for the merger were basically 1) South Yemen didn't have any money after the USSR collapsed 2) North Yemen was vaguely committed to pan-Arabism (they were part of the United Arab States with Egypt and Syria) 3) it was the momentum of world politics at the end of the Cold War 4) They both had Yemen in their name so why not?

Yeah, some people assume that the West and the USSR somehow "divided" Yemen into their respective spheres of influence as with Germany and Korea.

North Yemen (Yemen Arab Republic) was the successor of the Kingdom of Yemen, which emerged after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire when the various Peninsular Arab tribes were trying to consolidate power. The Kingdom of Yemen was basically just a part of the peninsula that Ibn Saud wasn't able to get a hold of.

South Yemen (People's Democratic Republic of Yemen) had previously been a British protectorate called South Arabia (they needed to control the port of Aden since it was a stop-over on the way to India and was located at the outlet to the Red Sea).

North Yemen was at least a semi-cohesive/coherent nation-state. South Yemen was basically just a bunch of tribes that had nothing to do with each other apart from not being loyal to the House of Saud or to the North Yemeni imam. Pretending to be Marxist-Leninist for a few decades was proof of how manufactured their national identity was, more than anything else.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So far Yemen remains without President (and cabinet).

Other parties: Ba'athist (pro-Saddam) and Nasserites. They are not very popular but they're well organized so they usually get invited to negotiations whenever there's a need for such things.

Actually, Baa'thists in Yemen are split, like in the rest of the Arab world, between Syrian-dominated faction and Iraqi-dominated faction. The former is Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party – Yemen Region, while the latter National Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party – Yemen Region.

[Famous Mortimer]

but it's the Iraqi wing that has seats in parliament.

[Famous Mortimer]

My bad, apparently it is the Syrian wing that has seats in parliament.

Like I said, neither is very relevant or popular.