UK local by-elections 2015

[Silent Hunter]

So we can watch those to see if Labour's got any bounce.

Thanks.

[joevsimp]

Edinburgh, Leith Walk (two vacancies)

SNP 36.2 (+7.7)
Lab 25.7 (-7.5)
Green 21.8 (+1.5)
Con 7.9 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-1.1)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6)
SSP 1.5 (+1.5)
Left Unity 0.5 (+0.5)
Ind 0.4
Lbt 0.3 (+0.3)

SNP	2290	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109
Lab	1623	1650.11	1653.11	1659.58	1661.66	1680.37	1697.56	1798.22	1990.25
Green	1381	1464.61	1469.77	1483.4	1495.27	1502.67	1576.1	1653.31	1729.86
Con	501	503.77	505.85	506.93	507.01	540.17	541.25	574.65
Lib Dem	255	261.64	263.04	265.28	265.28	267.44	271.6
UKIP	102	105.64	105.64	106.8	106.8
SSP	97	107.75	107.75	108.22	122.01	125.17
Left U	32	33.58	33.66	33.9
Ind	26	29	30
Lbt	17	17.87

SNP hold Leith Walk
Lab gain Leith Walk from Green

despite the swing against them, Labour now hold 3 out of 4 seats in that ward,

[Clyde1998]

Edinburgh, Leith Walk (two vacancies)

SNP 36.2 (+7.7)
Lab 25.7 (-7.5)
Green 21.8 (+1.5)
Con 7.9 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-1.1)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6)
SSP 1.5 (+1.5)
Left Unity 0.5 (+0.5)
Ind 0.4
Lbt 0.3 (+0.3)

SNP	2290	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109	2109
Lab	1623	1650.11	1653.11	1659.58	1661.66	1680.37	1697.56	1798.22	1990.25
Green	1381	1464.61	1469.77	1483.4	1495.27	1502.67	1576.1	1653.31	1729.86
Con	501	503.77	505.85	506.93	507.01	540.17	541.25	574.65
Lib Dem	255	261.64	263.04	265.28	265.28	267.44	271.6
UKIP	102	105.64	105.64	106.8	106.8
SSP	97	107.75	107.75	108.22	122.01	125.17
Left U	32	33.58	33.66	33.9
Ind	26	29	30
Lbt	17	17.87

SNP hold Leith Walk
Lab gain Leith Walk from Green

despite the swing against them, Labour now hold 3 out of 4 seats in that ward,

It's odd - purely because Labour have 'gained' the seat from the Greens despite the Greens being third effectively. I don't think they should hold by-elections using the STV system - but I'm not 100% sure what the alternatives are.

[ObserverIE]

Richmondshire, Richmond East

Con 39.5 (+15.2)
Richmond Ind 37.4 (+15.0)
Lib Dem 17.6 (+2.9)
Lab 5.3 (+5.3)

South Cambridgeshire, Bourn

Con 46.5 (-9.9)
Lib Dem 19.8 (+19.8)
Lab 18.9 (-10.4)
UKIP 9.7 (+9.7)
Green 5.1 (-9.3)

Haringey, Noel Park

Lab 61.3 (+4.0)
Lib Dem 15.1 (+0.3)
Con 10.9 (+4.8)
Green 7.6 (-3.3)
UKIP 2.9 (-4.0)
TUSC 2.3 (+2.3)

Haringey, Woodside (changes in italics since October 2014 by-election)

Lab 61.6 (+3.2) (+5.3)
Lib Dem 21.1 (+9.4) (+0.7)
Con 6.8 (-0.4) (+0.9)
Green 5.9 (-4.1) (-2.2)
UKIP 4.6 (-3.2) (-2.2)

South Ayrshire, Ayr East

Con 38.5 (+5.5)
SNP 38.0 (+6.6)
Lab 16.2 (-7.2)
Ind Bryden 5.5 (-1.0)
Green 1.9 (+1.9)

Con	1527	1534	1589	1740
SNP	1507	1540	1600	1775
Lab	642	654	708
Ind Bryden	218	227
Green	76

SNP hold Ayr East

[Phony Moderate]

Greens taking a bit of a hit everywhere. Interesting.

[ObserverIE]

Greens taking a bit of a hit everywhere. Interesting.

If there isn't a Corbynbounce in Haringey it would be hard to see it anywhere else, and in the Cambridgeshire seat there was no Lib Dem in May.

[Clyde1998]

Greens taking a bit of a hit everywhere. Interesting.

Possibly moving towards Labour - or due to lower turnouts compared to the main local elections.

[joevsimp]

Greens taking a bit of a hit everywhere. Interesting.

Greens never allways loose a few points at council byelections unless we're aiming to gain the seat, and even then...

[ObserverIE]

The Holy Word is back.

Wyre Forest, Blakebrook and South Habberley

Con 40.0 (+10.7)
UKIP 16.9 (-3.3)
Lab 16.6 (-1.8)
Green 11.6 (+3.4)
ICHC 11.2 (-5.6)
Lib Dem 3.6 (-1.7)

Wakefield, Pontefract North

Lab 48.0 (-3.7)
UKIP 23.9 (+2.3)
Con 15.8 (-5.1)
Yorks First 6.5 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 4.5 (+4.5)
TUSC 1.3 (-0.2)

South Norfolk, Chedgrave and Thurton

Con 53.5 (+7.7)
Lab 19.1 (-0.8)
Lib Dem 14.2 (+5.6)
UKIP 13.2 (-3.0)

Norfolk, Loddon (changes in italics since May 2015 by-election)

Con 57.0 (-6.7) (+6.9)
Lab 18.6 (+6.4) (+1.6)
Lib Dem 12.2 (+7.0) (+3.9)
UKIP 12.1 (-6.8) (-3.3)

Derbyshire, Derwent Valley

Con 51.0 (+8.2)
Lab 21.5 (-1.6)
Lib Dem 14.5 (+4.6)
UKIP 13.1 (-11.0)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here an here.

Fife, Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (changes in italics since March 2015 by-election)

SNP 59.0 (+16.5) (+3.7)
Lab 31.9 (-9.3) (-3.9)
Con 6.2 (+3.2) (+1.8)
Green 3.0 (+3.0) (+3.0)

East Ayrshire, Irvine Valley

SNP 49.8 (+5.3)
Con 24.0 (+5.8)
Lab 23.8 (-6.4)
Green 2.4 (+2.4)

SNP	1797	1832
Con	865	884
Lab	860	884
Green	88

Cherwell, Banbury Grimsbury and Castle

Lab 45.0 (+8.3)
Con 38.1 (+3.1)
UKIP 8.6 (-6.3)
Lib Dem 4.2 (-1.3)
Green 4.1 (-3.8)

Stirling, Stirling East

SNP 45.2 (+12.1)
Lab 37.7 (-6.8)
Con 11.8 (+4.0)
Green 5.2 (+1.0)

SNP	1311	1367	1388
Lab	1094	1134	1272
Con	343	352
Green	152

Moray, Heldon and Laich (changes in italics since March 2013 by-election)

Ind 41.1
SNP 31.1 (-5.9) (+5.9)
Con 21.8 (+4.5) (+7.8)
Green 6.0 (-0.6) (-0.1)

Ind	1323	1382	1775
SNP	1003	1054	1100
Con	703	725
Green	192

Aberdeen, Midstocket/Rosemount

SNP 40.9 (+2.0)
Con 23.6 (+9.8)
Lab 21.2 (-11.2)
Lib Dem 8.3 (+1.9)
Green 6.0 (-0.4)

SNP	1168	1225	1275	1433
Con	672	687	771	927
Lab	605	629	692
Lib Dem	238	270
Green	170

Aberdeen, George Street/Harbour

SNP 51.2 (+17.5)
Lab 26.1 (-5.4)
Con 10.4 (+3.7)
Green 7.2 (-0.1)
Lib Dem 5.1 (-4.8)

West Lothian, Linlithgow

SNP 43.1 (+1.4)
Lab 22.9 (+2.6)
Con 20.5 (-12.7)
Green 5.9 (+5.9)
Ind 4.8
Lib Dem 2.8 (+2.8)

SNP	2049	2061	2099	2234	2325
Lab	1088	1131	1175	1279	1644
Con	973	992	1056	1070
Green	282	303	346
Ind	230	246
Lib Dem	133

SNP hold Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
SNP hold Irvine Valley
Lab gain Banbury Grimsbury and Castle from Con
SNP hold Stirling East
Ind win Heldon and Laich held by Ind
SNP gain Midstocket/Rosemount from Ind elected as Con
SNP hold George Street/Harbour
SNP hold Linlithgow

[DavidB.]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

[ObserverIE]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

It's a relatively minor swing by recent standards, but then it's an area where the SNP have always performed well and there seems to be a plateau effect for increases in their vote.

The result in the English south midlands (Banbury) looks more encouraging.

[Clyde1998]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

Apparently, it's the first time since 1924 that Labour have won less votes than the Conservatives (or Unionists) in this town - in any election.

[MaxQue]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

Apparently, it's the first time since 1924 that Labour have won less votes than the Conservatives (or Unionists) in this town - in any election.

In this town?

It's a rural ward.

[Clyde1998]

Astonishing Corbyn effect in Scotland!

But not the intended one, it seems...

Apparently, it's the first time since 1924 that Labour have won less votes than the Conservatives (or Unionists) in this town - in any election.

In this town?

It's a rural ward.

The thing I was reading mentioned Kilmarnock - due to it being in the Kilmarnock constituency (which includes Irvine Valley) in 1924, where the Tories last beat Labour. This is where I got confused...

[afleitch]

I've posted this elsewhere;

I’ve been looking at the total number of votes cast in local authority by-elections in Scotland since ‘the event.’ Here are the figures

SNP 48.8
LAB 24.2
CON 11.7
LIB 5.2
GRN 5.0

The results in those same wards in 2012 was as follows:

SNP 34.9
LAB 38.3
CON 9.3
LIB 4.7
GRN 4.6

Bearing in mind that the SNP topped the poll (just) in 2012, then the wards being fought are slightly more ‘Labour’ than the national average.

The change in vote across those seats was therefore;

SNP +13.9
LAB -14.1
CON +2.5
LIB 0.5
GRN +0.4

Remember, this is a change on 2012, If this change happened across all seats in Scotland then you’d get the following result (using proportional rather than UNS)

SNP 45.2
LAB 19.8
CON 16.9
LIB 7.3
GRN 2.5

So while on raw totals, the Labour and SNP position looks comparable to the General election, in fact adjusting for the neck and neck 2012 results suggests that Labour are doing worse (and the Conservatives significantly better) than they did in the GE. Given that Labour have posted pooer results in Holyrood/Local Elections for many years than they do at the GE, this is to be expected.

There have also been four by-elections each in Aberdeen and Glasgow, so we can look at some regional variance too;

Aberdeen

SNP +16.8
LAB -14.6
CON +6
LIB -0.8
GRN +1.2

Glasgow

SNP +19.6
LAB -19.9
CON +1.9
LIB -0.8
GRN +2.4

[ObserverIE]

Cardiff, Riverside (changes in italics since December 2013 by-election)

Lab 45.9 (-1.2) (-4.4)
PC 33.5 (+3.2) (-1.2)
Con 6.6 (-1.6) (+1.8)
UKIP 4.7 (+4.7) (+0.3)
Green 4.7 (-2.8) (+4.7)
Lib Dem 3.6 (-0.3) (+1.0)

Na hEileanan an Iar, An Taobh Siar agus Nis

Ind Macleod 86.9
Ind Froggatt 7.4
Green 5.8 (+5.8)

Ind win An Taobh Siar agus Nis held by Ind

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words for the week here, here, agus an seo

Bolsover, Bolsover South

Lab 42.5
UKIP 23.3
Con 20.0
TUSC 14.3

South Oxfordshire, Sandford and The Whittenhams

Con 42.8 (-4.3)
Lib Dem 36.7 (+16.3)
Lab 13.1 (-3.7)
Green 7.4 (-8.3)

Woking, Goldsworth West

Con 40.0 (+7.0)
Lib Dem 38.0 (+0.3)
Lab 11.4 (+1.2)
UKIP 10.6 (-8.6)

Woking, Goldsworth East

Lib Dem 37.8 (+13.9)
Con 35.8 (-8.5)
Lab 16.7 (-4.6)
UKIP 9.8 (-0.7)

South Hams, Totnes

Green 30.1 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 29.5 (+11.0)
Lab 22.8 (+4.0)
Con 14.2 (+0.8)
Ind 3.3

Highland, Aird and Loch Ness

Lib Dem 33.5 (+21.2)
SNP 32.5 (+4.6)
Con 15.2 (+8.3)
Ind 9.5
Green 9.3 (+9.3)

Lib Dem	1029	1099	1208	1511
SNP	1000	1097	1144	1167
Con	467	480	544
Ind	293	330
Green	287

Con gain Goldsworth West from Lib Dem
Lib Dem hold Goldsworth East
Lib Dem gain Aird and Loch Ness from SNP

[joevsimp]

South Oxfordshire, Sandford and The Whittenhams

Con 42.8 (-4.3)
Lib Dem 36.7 (+16.3)
Lab 13.1 (-3.7)
Green 7.4 (-8.3)

a colleage of mine was canvassing for the fibdems in that one, not the kind of thing i'd personally admit to at work...

[Clyde1998]

Highland, Aird and Loch Ness

Lib Dem 33.5 (+21.2)
SNP 32.5 (+4.6)
Con 15.2 (+8.3)
Ind 9.5
Green 9.3 (+9.3)

Lib Dem	1029	1099	1208	1511
SNP	1000	1097	1144	1167
Con	467	480	544
Ind	293	330
Green	287

Lib Dem gain Aird and Loch Ness from SNP

The Lib Dem surge can be explained by the Lib Dems gaining most of the votes from an independent candidate who didn't stand this time. Without knowing the local factors, it's hard to tell if this is down to the Lib Dems having a popular candidate in this seat or whether this is the first indication of a Lib Dem revival in Scotland.

[Phony Moderate]

Any explanation for the strong TUSC result in Bolsover, especially as, you know, Labour is now led by a man who wouldn't be a bad fit for TUSC? Comically low turnout?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its a small ward in a small town noted for its sleepy local politics and turnout was beyond abysmal. I doubt there's much that can be read into it.

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word.

Cumbria, Howgate

Lab 47.5 (-13.0)
Con 33.2 (+2.3)
UKIP 19.2 (+19.2)

Cambridgeshire, Chatteris

UKIP 41.0 (+6.2)
Con 40.3 (+5.8)
Lib Dem 18.7 (-2.6)

Southwark, South Camberwell

Lab 57.9 (+3.6)
Green 20.5 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 10.4 (+2.3)
Con 9.3 (-1.7)
APP 1.8 (-3.3)

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word.

Oxford, Northfield Brook (changes in italics since November 2014 by-election)

Lab 77.9 (+6.3) (+7.3)
UKIP 9.2 (+9.2) (+9.2)
Con 7.2 (-4.3) (-4.2)
Green 4.3 (-7.0) (-4.5)
TUSC 1.4 (+1.4) (-4.6)

South Oxfordshire, Sonning Common

Con 66.0 (+4.5)
Lab 20.8 (+6.2)
Lib Dem 13.2 (+2.4)

Bury, Tottington

Con 52.2 (+3.4)
Lab 30.9 (+2.0)
UKIP 9.9 (-4.4)
Lib Dem 4.3 (+0.8)
Green 2.7 (-1.8)

Colchester, Dedham and Langham

Con 77.9 (+6.6)
UKIP 8.6 (+8.6)
Lib Dem 8.1 (-1.6)
Lab 5.4 (-4.3)

Westminster, Bryanston and Dorset Square

Con 49.7 (-2.0)
Ind 18.6
Lab 14.3 (-4.9)
Green 9.9 (-7.3)
Lib Dem 3.9 (-8.0)
UKIP 3.6 (+3.6)

Hampshire, Chandler's Ford

Con 49.3 (+10.2)
Lib Dem 35.5 (+3.8)
UKIP 8.5 (-13.3)
Lab 6.8 (+2.0)

Con gain Tottington from Lab

[Phony Moderate]

Labour failed to gain Dedham and Langham? End of Corbyn's leadership, methinks.