UK local by-elections 2015

[Gary J]

Labour gained 2% in Chandler's Ford. The Corbyn landslide is building.

[joevsimp]

Oxford, Northfield Brook (changes in italics since November 2014 by-election)

Lab 77.9 (+6.3) (+7.3)
UKIP 9.2 (+9.2) (+9.2)
Con 7.2 (-4.3) (-4.2)
Green 4.3 (-7.0) (-4.5)
TUSC 1.4 (+1.4) (-4.6)

so the elephant in the room question is how many of those UKIP voters voted for IWCA back in the day...

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Chorley, Euxton North

Lab 57.3 (+12.7)
Con 36.4 (-0.4)
UKIP 6.3 (-12.3)

Brentwood, Shenfield

Con 57.4 (-0.3)
Lib Dem 32.5 (+5.1)
UKIP 5.7 (-2.7)
Lab 3.3 (-3.2)
Green 1.1 (+1.1)

Cheshire East, Congleton East

Con 36.5 (-1.3)
Lib Dem 28.3 (+18.5)
Lab 21.3 (+0.9)
UKIP 13.9 (-2.9)

Peterborough, West

Con 46.4 (+1.1)
Lab 29.4 (-2.3)
UKIP 16.4 (+1.6)
Lib Dem 4.1 (+4.1)
Green 3.7 (-4.5)

Barrow-in-Furness, Risedale

Lab 53.0 (-24.9)
UKIP 23.9 (+1.8)
Con 23.1 (+23.1)

Wealden, Hellingly

Lib Dem 69.9 (+35.3)
Con 17.7 (-30.2)
Ind 12.3

Con gain Shenfield from Lib Dem
Lib Dem gain Hellingly from Ind elected as Con

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

[YL]

Holy Words here and here.

I see there is a Libertarian candidate in the double election in Aberdeenshire; it's been a while since I've noticed one of those.  I wonder how many votes he will get.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

I see there is a Libertarian candidate in the double election in Aberdeenshire; it's been a while since I've noticed one of those.  I wonder how many votes he will get.

The last one was in Leith Walk (Edinburgh) in September and got 17 first preferences.

[ObserverIE]

Torbay, Clifton-with-Maidenway

Lib Dem 69.2 (+37.3)
Con 14.8 (-10.7)
UKIP 10.0 (-11.1)
Lab 3.3 (-9.9)
Green 2.7 (-5.6)

Aberdeenshire, Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford

Con 36.3 (+9.8)
SNP 35.4 (+0.7)
Lib Dem 22.9 (+4.7)
Lab 4.8 (+4.8)
Lbt 0.5 (+0.5)

SNP hold, Con gain from Lib Dem in Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford

[YL]

Torbay, Clifton-with-Maidenway

Lib Dem 69.2 (+37.3)
Con 14.8 (-10.7)
UKIP 10.0 (-11.1)
Lab 3.3 (-9.9)
Green 2.7 (-5.6)

The winning Lib Dem was the former MP for Torbay, Adrian Sanders.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

Dorset, Rodwell

Green 34.9 (+12.5)
Con 29.5 (+6.4)
Lab 21.9 (-8.7)
UKIP 9.1 (-9.4)
Lib Dem 4.6 (-0.6)

Bridgend, Ogmore Vale

Lab 48.8 (+3.8)
Ind 27.1
PC 13.5 (+13.5)
Con 6.3 (+6.3)
UKIP 4.3 (+4.3)

Shropshire, Belle Vue

Lab 47.8 (-28.7)
Con 24.7 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 21.0 (+21.0)
Green 6.6 (+6.6)

Conwy, Eglwysbach

PC 87.2
Con 12.8

Green gain Rodwell from Lab
Lab gain Ogmore Vale from Ind

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

For a bit of context, since 1996 (which is as far as reliable records go back) Rodwell is only the third Labour seat gained by the Greens in a local by-election.  The other two were in Lancaster last year.  The Green candidate was a former Labour county councillor for the division.

[joevsimp]

yeah, but we usually do rubbish at council byelections,

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here ac yma.

Gwynedd, Dewi

PC 59.4 (+2.1)
Lab 34.6 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 6.0 (-1.9)

Gwynedd, Llanaelhaern

PC 48.7 (+36.7)
LlG 27.3 (-22.6)
Ind 24.1

Ashford, Aylesford Green

Con 23.5 (-21.5)
UKIP 23.2 (+23.2)
Lab 22.6 (-32.4)
Ashford Ind 19.6 (+19.6)
Lib Dem 9.0 (+9.0)
Green 2.1 (+2.1)

Carmarthenshire, Kidwelly

Lab 33.8 (-10.6)
PC 29.1 (+29.1)
Ind Burke-Lloyd 20.8 (+2.3)
People First 6.8 (-16.5)
Con 6.2 (+6.2)
Ind Summers 3.3 (+3.3)

Norfolk, Watton

Con 45.6 (+18.1)
Ind Gilbert 44.0 (+20.4)
Lab 5.8 (-5.4)
Green 2.1 (-1.6)

Norfolk, South Smallburgh

Lib Dem 56.4 (+25.8)
Con 28.4 (-1.0)
UKIP 8.9 (-17.8)
Lab 4.2 (-5.3)
Green 2.1 (-1.6)

Surrey, Epsom West

Con 23.8 (+11.0)
Residents 22.7 (-0.1)
Lib Dem 22.6 (-5.4)
Lab 22.0 (+2.0)
UKIP 6.5 (-9.7)
Green 2.2 (+2.2)

PC gain Llanaelhaern from Llais Gwynedd
Con gain Aylesford Green from Lab
Con gain Watton from UKIP
Con gain Epsom West from Lib Dem

[Boston Bread]

lol Aylesford

[ObserverIE]

lol Aylesford

Actual result was:

Con 110
UKIP 109
Lab 106
Ashford Ind 92
Lib Dem 42
Green 10

[ObserverIE]

A set of Holy Words here, here, and here.

Rochford, Rochford

Lab 32.4 (+3.2)
Con 32.0 (-8.2)
UKIP 24.4 (-6.2)
Lib Dem 11.1 (+11.1)

Gwynedd, Pwllheli South

Ind Underwood 45.4
PC 28.4 (-11.9)
Ind Parry 17.9
LlG 8.3 (-51.4)

Wiltshire, Salisbury St Edmund and Milford

Con 36.0 (+13.0)
Lib Dem 22.2 (-20.8)
Lab 19.7 (+5.2)
Green 18.2 (+10.7)
Ind 3.8

Lancaster, Carnforth and Millhead

Con 54.9 (+8.5)
Lab 32.3 (-3.2)
Green 5.2 (-12.8)
Lib Dem 3.8 (+3.8)
UKIP 3.7 (+3.7)

Newport, Bettws

Ind Cleverly 31.8
Lab 27.9 (-12.7)
Ind Jordan 26.1
Con 10.8 (+10.8)
Green 2.7 (+2.7)
Lib Dem 0.7 (+0.7)

Fife, Dunfermline North

SNP 43.5 (+11.9)
Lab 29.6 (-18.6)
Con 12.5 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 9.5 (-4.1)
Green 2.6 (+2.6)
UKIP 2.4 (+2.4)

Fife, Rosyth

SNP 45.2 (+9.4)
Lab 34.5 (-13.2)
Con 9.1 (+3.3)
Lib Dem 3.6 (-3.5)
UKIP 3.3 (+0.7)
Ind 2.5
Green 1.9 (+1.9)

Ashfield, Selston

Selston Ind 66.5 (+31.0)
Ind Wilson 16.6
Lab 9.7 (-6.0)
UKIP 4.3 (+4.3)
Con 2.9 (+2.9)

Nottinghamshire, Selston

Selston Ind 59.2 (-12.6)
Ind Wilson 22.9
Lab 10.2 (-13.3)
UKIP 4.6 (+4.6)
Con 3.0 (+3.0)

Lab gain Rochford from Con
Ind gain Pwllheli South from Llais Gwynedd
Con gain Salisbury St Edmund and Milford from Lib Dem
Ind hold Bettws
SNP hold Dunfermline North
SNP hold Rosyth

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

In case anybody was wondering, there is no Holy Word this week.  Residents of Oldham may well be thankful for that, given how rude I would likely have been about the place.

[ObserverIE]

Malvern Hills, Teme Valley

Con 63.8 (-8.5)
Lab 22.9 (+22.9)
UKIP 13.3 (-14.4)

Newham, Boleyn

Lab 72.1 (+8.1)
Lib Dem 9.1 (+9.1)
Con 8.6 (-12.0)
Green 5.9 (+5.9)
UKIP 3.9 (+3.9)
Ind 0.5

South Kesteven, Belvoir

Con 52.5 (-16.0)
Ind 18.5
Lab 15.2 (-16.3)
UKIP 13.8 (+13.8)

Guildford, Ash South and Tongham

Con 43.2 (-3.3)
Lib Dem 22.9 (+6.4)
Guildford Greenbelt 11.6 (-9.5)
UKIP 12.2 (+12.2)
Lab 10.0 (-5.8)

Shropshire, Meole

Con 43.1 (-11.8)
Lab 26.7 (-11.0)
Lib Dem 19.6 (+12.3)
UKIP 5.6 (+5.6)
Green 4.9 (+4.9)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

Harborough, Market Harborough Logan

Lib Dem 45.2 (+11.0)
Con 34.0 (+0.6)
Lab 9.2 (-8.0)
Green 6.3 (-8.9)
UKIP 5.3 (+5.3)

Fylde, Clifton

Con 59.8 (+17.4)
UKIP 13.3 (+13.3)
Ind 12.7
Lab 8.7 (-10.8)
Lib Dem 5.5 (+5.5)

North East Derbyshire, Coal Aston

Con 68.6 (+17.2)
Lab 31.4 (-2.4)

Huntingdonshire, Huntingdon East

Lib Dem 45.0 (+17.2)
Con 31.8 (-3.3)
UKIP 15.6 (-7.8)
Lab 7.5 (-5.0)

South Lanarkshire, Blantyre

Lab 47.2 (-7.0)
SNP 39.6 (+9.0)
Con 4.5 (+0.6)
SSP 3.9 (+3.9)
Lib Dem 2.9 (+2.2)
UKIP 1.9 (+1.9)

Lab	1476	1483	1504	1536	1589
SNP	1236	1246	1259	1314	1327
Con	140	156	172	173
SSP	122	125	133
Lib Dem	92	97
UKIP	59

North East Derbyshire, Holmewood and Heath

Lab 79.0 (+7.4)
Con 21.0 (-7.4)

Bournemouth, Kinson South

Con 33.9 (+10.4) (520, 509)
Lab 27.7 (+6.7) (471, 371)
UKIP 20.6 (-5.9) (313)
Bmth Ind 9.4 (-1.2) (168, 116)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-4.2) (61, 60)
Green 3.9 (-6.3) (63, 54)
Patria 0.5 (+0.5) (8)

Lib Dem gain Huntingdon East from UKIP
Lab hold Blantyre
Con hold two in Kinson South

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

Spelthorne, Shepperton Town

Con 62.0 (+7.3)
UKIP 13.0 (-5.2)
Lib Dem 11.1 (-2.0)
Lab 8.9 (-5.0)
Green 4.9 (+4.9)

Conwy, Gogarth

Con 42.5 (+15.9)
Lab 25.0 (-0.3)
PC 22.3 (+1.6)
Lib Dem 6.5 (+6.5)
Ind 3.7

East Hertfordshire, Hertford Heath

Con 52.0 (+6.7)
Lib Dem 19.5 (+19.5)
UKIP 13.5 (-1.8)
Lab 10.8 (-1.7)
Green 4.1 (-1.8)

Worcestershire, Stourport-on-Severn (changes in italics since June 2013 by-election)

Con 28.7 (+8.0) (+6.9)
IKHC 27.3 (+0.7) (-3.3)
Lab 21.9 (+0.3) (+4.3)
UKIP 20.6 (-6.3) (-5.2)
Green 1.6 (-2.5) (-0.6)

Brent, Kensal Green

Lab 53.4 (-1.2)
Lib Dem 23.9 (+8.7)
Con 14.6 (+3.3)
Green 5.9 (-13.1)
UKIP 2.2 (+2.2)

Ryedale, Derwent

Lib 35.5 (+35.5)
Con 34.8 (-7.8)
Ind 15.5 (-15.2)
Lib Dem 10.2 (-16.5)
Yorks First 4.0 (+4.0)

Con hold Gogarth
Con gain Stourport-on-Severn from Kidderminster Health Concern
Lib gain Derwent from Con

[Clyde1998]

Yesterday, the Liberals gained the safe Conservative ward of Derwent (Ryedale) with a 23.7% swing. For the record that's the continuing Liberals, not the Liberal Democrats.

Liberal - 35.5% (+35.5)
Conservative - 34.8% (-11.
Independent - 15.5% (-13.0)
Lib Dem - 10.2% (-14.7)
Yorkshire First - 4.0% (+4.0)

Any ideas what happened there?

[ObserverIE]

Yesterday, the Liberals gained the safe Conservative ward of Derwent (Ryedale) with a 23.7% swing. For the record that's the continuing Liberals, not the Liberal Democrats.

Liberal - 35.5% (+35.5)
Conservative - 34.8% (-11.8)
Independent - 15.5% (-13.0)
Lib Dem - 10.2% (-14.7)
Yorkshire First - 4.0% (+4.0)

Any ideas what happened there?

a) It's an area where the Liberals already have some local strength.
b) The Lib Dems fycked up their nomination papers so that their candidate appeared without a description on the ballot paper.

[ObserverIE]

Final Holy Word of the year here and best wishes to Andrew for a speedy recovery.

Aylesbury Vale, Grendon Underwood and Brill

Con 43.5 (-11.2)
Lib Dem 36.7 (+25.8)
UKIP 19.8 (-2.1)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Final Holy Word of the year here and best wishes to Andrew for a speedy recovery.

Aylesbury Vale, Grendon Underwood and Brill

Con 43.5 (-11.2)
Lib Dem 36.7 (+25.
UKIP 19.8 (-2.1)

Thanks for your kind wishes.  The operation took place on the 17th and was successful.  My recovery is progressing well but it'll take me a little while yet to be fully back up to speed.